A massive counteroffensive by the Syrian government over the weekend has forced an estimated 200,000 people to flee Aleppo while the opposition continues what is effectively a guerilla war. Government troops pounded Syria's largest city and commercial capital, claiming they have overtaken Salaheddine, the center of fighting in the southwestern region of the city. Opposition forces dispute the government's statement, retorting they have retained control of the Salehedine quarter despite the bombardment of heavy artillery and helicopter gunships. Outnumbered and outgunned, the Syrian opposition has continued to appeal to the international community for arms. France said it would call for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council, and U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said of the Syrian regime, "If they continue this kind of tragic attack on their own people in Aleppo, I think it ultimately will be a nail in Assad's own coffin." Iran expressed its support for the Syrian regime, warning Sunni-led Arab countries that have been backing the opposition that the fall of Assad will destabilize the region. The United Nations' humanitarian chief Valerie Amos said that the International Red Cross and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent have estimated that 200,000 people have fled the fighting in Aleppo over the past two days. She claimed others are trapped in the midst of the fighting or are taking refuge in schools or other public buildings. Iraq, concerned over domestic instability, has resisted receiving Syrian refugees. The Iraqi border was closed until last week to those fleeing the conflict. Syrians who have crossed over are being imprisoned. According to the United Nations, Iraq has received 8,445 refugees while Turkey has registered 88,000. Jordan claims to have taken in 140,000 people. Meanwhile, a Turkish official reported that the deputy police chief of the predominantly Alawite port city of Latakia defected overnight, along with 12 Syrian officers.
Arguments & Analysis
‘Déjà Vu All Over Again: Iraq's Escalating Political Crisis' (International Crisis Group)
"At first glance, the current Iraqi political crisis looks like just one more predictable bump in the long road from dictatorship to democracy. Every two years or so, the political class experiences a prolonged stalemate; just as regularly, it is overcome. So, one might think, it will be this time around. But look closer and the picture changes. The tug of war over Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's second term suggests something far worse: that a badly conceived, deeply flawed political process has turned into a chronic crisis that could bring down the existing political structure. To avoid this outcome, both Maliki and his opponents need to make painful compromises: the prime minister should implement the power-sharing deal negotiated in 2010 and pledge to step down at the end of his term; in turn, his rivals should call off efforts to unseat him and instead use their parliamentary strength to build strong state institutions, such as an independent electoral commission, and ensure free and fair elections in two years' time."
‘Syria: Guests of the Warlord' (Jon Lee Anderson, The New Yorker)
"Abu Ibrahim is a big bear of a man in his early forties. He wears flip-flops and a T-shirt and tracksuit pants, and shuffles because of a sniper bullet in his left leg, fired by Syrian government forces; another bullet went through his right foot not long ago, and his face is scarred from an explosion caused when an assailant tried to kill him with a grenade. He keeps a pistol tucked into the waistband of his tracksuit pants. His men are loyal and watchful and one of them never leaves his side. He told me that he used to be a "fruit merchant." Now, Abu Ibrahim is one of the chieftains of the war in Syria's strategic northern Aleppo province, where a decisive military confrontation seems to be beginning."
‘Tunisia's Salafists Come to the Fore' (Aaron Y. Zelin, The Daily Star)
"The legalization and participation of Salafist parties in the democratic process is one of the recent trends to emerge from the Arab uprisings. Like Egypt, which legalized three Salafist parties for its elections, and Yemen, which recently legalized its own Salafist party, Tunisia licensed the Tunisian Islamic Reform Front on March 29, 2012.Previously, the transitional government led by former Prime Minister Beji Caid al-Sebsi twice rejected Jabhat al-Islah's demands for official recognition because of national security concerns. In contrast, the current ruling party, Ennahda, supports the legalization of Salafist groups both because of its own history in the opposition and the practical considerations of governing an ideologically polarized country. Ennahda seems to believe that by bringing groups like Jabhat al-Islah into the system it can send a clear signal: if one wants to take part in shaping the future of Tunisia, one must buy into the democratic process."
--By Jennifer Parker and Mary Casey
The Middle East Channel offers unique analysis and insights on this diverse and vital region of more than 400 million.