Last time, I was asking this question to Saddam Hussein. By all probability, Saddam was not so deranged to fantasize a victory over USA in 2003. In the same way, Iran can't stand for more than a month depending on quantum of force US/ Israel use.

Even though Saddam knew that thinking of a victory over the US was next to impossible, Iran however are a much larger nation who have been dabbling in Nukes and are already threatening to the strait of Hormuz, which is a very important oil trade route, if they are slapped with even more sanctions. This could turn out to be uglier than anyone thinks.

Israel has this tendency to make its actions and the things it is thinking about doing 180 degrees out of phase. When Israel wants to influence a bad actor through other means than force they will openly talk about using force. When they want to use force they just go and do it, little to no discussion involved. They've never really been into telegraphing their next move. Given the current state of rhetoric on Iranian nukes you can draw your own conclusions as to which course Israel is leaning towards.

The planet knows this.

This article should never have been published by FP. It hurts FP's brand equity of delivering timely, insider, thoughtful analyses with beneficial tactical/strategic pathways. It reads like a high school current events essay ...

Looking at what the US did to Iraq and comparing that to the way it treats North Korea, it would seem eminently sensible of the Iranian regime to want to get its own nuclear weapons.

The real "existential" threat to Israel is to get into a war with Iran where the Iranians start lobbing long range missiles at Israeli cities and all those Israelis with dual nationality start clogging up the exits. Given the differences in population and surface area between the two countries almost the only answer for Israel would be to threaten a nuclear strike. An Iranian bomb would obviously put that off the table.

Everyone, including 80% of the Iranians are convinced this regime must go, and let the people of Iran to elect their secular and democratic government. After which, Iran will join the rest of the democratic world.

In regards to their nuclear program, the Mullahs are fully aware of Israel's capabilities to retaliate (or preemptive) strike. Iran's nuclear program and its military option is not as concern to Israel, as the psychological one. Once the Mullahs have it, they will use it to run fear into the Israeli public to induce many to live the country. This is what the Mullahs are trying to do. Win the fight without a fight.

The outcome most likely will be. US will taunt the IRG into a lose-lose situation on the Straights of Hormuz. Damn if they block it, damn if they don't.

If they block, US and other Nato navies will not only destroy Iran's navy, also will extend the attacks on IRG's entire installation - render it unable to protect the regime - result of which, an extension of the domino affect, and the start of revolution in Iran, and regime change, on the same model as others before them..

If Iran does not block, they will lose face and credibility with their own people and the Arabs in the region as loud mouth and a paper tiger.

Palestinian & their supporters like the Mullahs in Iran, (mis)lead others to believe that, their objective is only “an end to Israeli occupation of the West Bank, Gaza & E. Jerusalem”.

In reality, these are the stages used by these groups & organizations to eliminate Israel.

PHASE I: THE DENIAL & DE-LEGITIMIZATION.
1) Label Israelis, “Zionists” (means “Jews”), intended to render them as “outsiders”, or “foreign colonialists”.
2) Deny the Holocaust,
3) Question, or deny Jews history & their continued presence in region. (Arafat: in 2000 Camp David).
4) Repeat the same lies on every public stage. (Abu Mazen speech in UNGA. “Jerusalem is to Christians and Muslims” - omits the Jews)

PHASE II – “ZIONISM” & THE “APARTHEID” EFFECT.
1) Knowing that, Zionism was a mere political movement, created in 1899 to empower Jews to live in their own homeland, safe from further persecutions. Israel's enemies emphasis only the role of the European Jews, to depict Israel as yet another European colony - while never mention the 1.2M Jewish refugees, who fled persecution in the Arab & Islamic countries.
2) Attempt to wrap the “South Africa” noose and its “Apartheid” around the Israelis neck.
3) Continue try to convince the world community (through UN Resolutions) that Zionism is a system of Apartheid – which they did succeed of doing for a period of time.
4) Adapt a well known propaganda tool. A lie, if repeated loud, and repeated often enough, soon people will believe it as the absolute truth.
5) In English to the world community, speak of “peace” (Dar al-salam). In Arabic to their own people, speak or war (Dar Al-Harb) and annihilation of Jews.

PHASE III: THE PROVOCATION & THE VICTIMIZED.
1) Coupled with Phase II, keep low intensity provocations (through homicide bombing from WB & rockets from Gaza). Then hope for IDF to respond (which most certainly does follow). Then,
2) Show the gory pictures of dead children to TV, to generate sympathy, and anger against the Israelis.
3) Repeat it often enough such that, the picture of “the ugly Israeli solder shooting innocent civilians” is vivid in people's mind and heart. Render Israel as “racist”, “brutal”, and “ugly” element living among the “peaceful” Arabs.

PHASE IV: THE PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE & INCITEMENT
1) Utilizing the power of words. When speaking for the Palestinians, they use words like, “Justice”, “fairness”, “Indigenous people”, “occupied territories”, “victims”, “legal owners”, and “Right of Return” , “International law”- all to conjure up positive imagery of the Pals in people's minds.
2)When however, it comes to Israel, they use words like “Stolen land”, “Zionists”, “Colonial occupier”, “discriminations”, “Apartheid”, “massacre”, “criminal”, “war Crimes”, and even “Genocide” is brought up.
3) Intentionally & deliberately, keep their people in those refugees camps, throughout the Arab & Islamic states since 1948 to:
a) Continue to play on peoples emotions and sympathy – keep the flame of anti-Israeli alive.
b) Use them as “reserve solders” to flood Israel – all under the pretense of “Right of Return”. Then through its demographic majority, use its democracy to destroy, not only its democracy, but itself as the homeland for Jews.
4) Refer to the land of Israel in religious & theological terms, “Dar al Harb” (House of War), to incite the larger Muslim crowd.
5) Play “The good Guy / Bad Guy” scenario. While PLO in WB, depicts the image of the “civilized” “peace loving Palestinians”. Hamas in Gaza, plays the opposite role. To force the Israelis for more and more concessions, until nothing is left for them to concede.
6) Use homicide bombing to create psychological fear among the Israelis, with hope they will flee. (“Jews love life, we love death”).
7) Through continued propaganda, render Israel as the source of the problem, and its elimination as the only solution to all the unrest throughout the Islamic countries.

PHASE V: USE OF INTERNATIONAL LAW & UN.
When all else have failed. Now the Palestinians are attempting to employee the sinister use civility of international law to cripple Israel from defending itself.
1) Gain recognition as a state over the entire West Bank, Gaza & E. Jerusalem. Thus, force Israel to surrender Jews religious & heritage center. As well the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Israel's academic crown Jewel, to Palestinians control
2) Refuse to grant citizenship to their own refugees living outside the new Palestine, to force Israel to absorb them.
3) Refuse to accept any Jew living in the newly created state Palestine (Apartheid?)
4) Plan to indict Israeli solders and member of cabinets, for alleged war crimes in International court, for defending their woman & children from heinous Palestinian homicide bombers.
5) refuse to follow the western countries demand of negotiated settlement.