Posted By Richard Gowan
Friday, January 6, 2012 - 1:26 PM
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The Arab League has had observers to monitor the violent situation in Syria for less than a fortnight, but they are already a source of derision. The Syrian opposition claims that the roughly 100 monitors, deployed to oversee the army's withdrawal from urban areas, have been manipulated and fed disinformation by the government. There have been accusations that the military has used the observers' presence as a cover for increased violence. Perhaps most notoriously, the League selected a Sudanese general associated with the war in Darfur to lead the mission. The observers, dressed in brightly-colored waistcoats and armed only with digital cameras, often look lost and ineffectual.
In any plausible scenario, the monitors were never going to have a decisive impact on Syria. Although the Syrian government promised that it would halt military operations against civilians in December, few analysts took this promise seriously. A handful of observers were not going to change political calculations in Damascus, especially as they have neither their own guards nor secure communications equipment -- leaving them excessively reliant on Syrian assistance to monitor and report anything at all.
With no recent experience of mounting peace operations, the Arab League lacks the basic command structures and doctrines required to give even a small mission like this credibility. But it would be a mistake to imagine that other organizations with greater field experience -- such as the United Nations or European Union -- would have done a vastly better job given the huge constraints on the mission.
Indeed, U.N. and EU planners would probably have refused to get involved in such a venture. Most international organizations avoid putting unarmed observers into escalating conflicts altogether, not least because they are always likely to be rendered inoperative by safety concerns. The historical precedents for the Arab League's efforts are bad, as I pointed out in a report on multilateral missions and conflict prevention for the United States Institute of Peace published in December. It's worth comparing the Syrian operation with a similar -- and unsuccessful -- mission deployed to Kosovo in 1998.
The Kosovo Verification Mission was deployed under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in late 1998 after the Yugoslav government promised to halt military operations against the Kosovo Albanians. It had far greater resources than the Arab League can muster, with over 1,400 observers and a NATO extraction force next door in Macedonia. It enjoyed considerably greater freedom of movement than the League's team has had so far. Yet it failed to deter continued violence, and had to be withdrawn in 1999 when NATO decided to resolve the conflict with air power.
So it's no surprise that the Arab League's initial deployment has failed to bring peace to Syria. And while League officials have promised to deploy additional monitors and asked the U.N. for "technical help", it's unlikely that extra personnel or even better mission-management and leadership are going to make the operation really effective. But this doesn't mean that it has no purpose.
While the observers may be failing in their stated goal -- to help ensure that the Syrian army halts attacks on civilians -- they have already played a significant role in underlining the brutality and untrustworthiness of the Syrian regime. There was previously copious evidence of the regime's violence from refugees, human rights activists, undercover journalists, and U.N. reports. But the observer mission's presence has magnified outside awareness of these abuses, especially because the media have tracked the observers' every move. Although the mission's leadership has mishandled relations with the press, individual observers have been frank with journalists about abuses they have witnessed and the limitations they are under -- effectively circumnavigating the constraints on their formal reporting lines.
The fact that atrocities appear to be ongoing while the observers are in place also raises the diplomatic stakes. Arab politicians and commentators have already demanded that the mission should withdraw in protest at Syria's behavior, and the monitors' public difficulties will surely increase tensions between Damascus and the rest of the League. It is a sad truth of international politics that governments and international organizations are often far more concerned about attacks on their own credibility than human rights abuses. The Arab League, having won a new degree of credibility by taking a tough stance on Libya nearly a year ago, now finds its reputation tied to its observers' performance in Syria.
Some League officials appear to be aiming to downplay the observers' difficulties and highlight cases of cooperation with the government. Almost all peacekeeping missions fall prey to "happy reporting" of this type at one time or another, but it is a mistake. If the League is to maintain any leverage over Syria, it should address claims that the monitors are being manipulated head on and threaten to penalize Damascus for its contempt. Unfortunately, the League has few policy options left open -- especially as Iraq and Lebanon are opposed to any moves that could destabilize their neighbor Syria further.
But the Syrian authorities should not assume that they can mistreat the League's observers with impunity. This is another lesson from Kosovo: in early 1999, monitors from Kosovo Verification Mission reported on the murder of over forty ethnic Albanians in the village of Racak. The mission's chief spoke out over the atrocity, and the discovery played an important part in pushing NATO to a military solution.
So even though the Verification Mission failed to halt the violence it witnessed in Kosovo, it acted as a trigger for more decisive international action. The Arab League's observers in Syria could potentially play a similar triggering role. They may stumble across acts of unquestionable government brutality they cannot ignore or play down -- a "Racak moment" that seizes global attention -- or admit they cannot fulfill their mandate and withdraw. In either case, there would be renewed pressure for stronger actions against Syria whether through the U.N. or (if Russia and China use their Security Council vetoes) even NATO. The Syrian authorities may believe they have the Arab League's personnel under control, but they may discover that this small, ill-fated mission is the prelude to a far more serious intervention.
Richard Gowan is an associate director at New York University's Center on International Cooperation and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
EXPLORE:MIDDLE EAST, MIDDLE EAST POSTER 4, ARAB WORLD, MIDDLE EAST, HUMAN RIGHTS, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, SECURITY, SYRIA, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY, UNITED NATIONS 
Didn't the Arab League send a genocidal maniac to Syria?
Their choice of UN human rights observer was the general who organized genocidal paramilitaries in the Sudan.
After that choice, how can we possibly take the Arab League seriously on the subject of the protection of human rights?
They are peeved that Syria has aligned with Iran but they also don't want to be seen as actually doing jack-squat about Assad's brutal repression of his people.
So dismiss this initiative just because of one man.
You are just repeating a cliche you have heard from newsmedia.
Do you have any solution, any idea about Syria which makes sense?
I'm not sure you know where Syria is.
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BEIRUT — The Arab League has given Syria until Wednesday to allow observers into the country or else it will likely turn to the U.N. Security Council for action to try to end the deadly violence against regime opponents, Qatar's prime minister said Saturday.
Sheik Hamad Bin Jassem Bin Jabr Al Thani said in Qatar that Arab foreign ministers will hold a "decisive and important" meeting in Cairo on Wednesday to decide on next steps. He said there is near unanimity on taking the Arab League's plan to the Security Council in hopes the world body can bring more pressure to bear on Damascus to accept it. Syria has demanded changes to the proposal, which calls for an end to the government's crackdown.
"We hope that the brothers in Syria sign before that date," Hamad said, referring to Wednesday's meeting.
The violence continued Saturday. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said security forces shot dead at least 20 people, most of them in the central province of Homs, a restive province that has seen intense protests and clashes since the uprising against President Bashar Assad began in March.
Another activist group, the Local Coordination Committees, said 34 people were killed, including eight army defectors. It did not say where the defectors were killed but there have been reports of clashes in the northwestern province of Idlib.
The United Nations has been waiting for word from the Arab League before moving ahead with a resolution on Syria. A clear nod from Syria's Arab neighbors could ease Russian and Chinese opposition to sanctions. Both nations have veto power at the Security Council.
The Arab plan calls for Syria to halt its crackdown, hold talks with the opposition and allow in Arab observers to ensure compliance with the deal. It does not call for foreign military intervention, as happened in Libya.
"We will not put forward a new initiative. We will put forward to the Security Council the Arab initiative and Arab resolutions," Hamad said. "We are not speaking about military intervention."
The 22-member League has also suspended Syria's membership and imposed sanctions, but it has been divided over whether to seek the help of the wider international community beyond the Arab world. Hamad's remarks after an Arab ministerial committee meeting in Qatar indicated that the camp objecting to outside intervention may be getting smaller.
Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby said the only remaining point of disagreement with Syria is over some wording in the plan calling for the protection of "Syrian civilians." Syria wants that changed to "Syrian citizens" since many of those killed in the turmoil have been regime soldiers who died in clashes with army defectors.
The Arab League objects to the change, arguing that soldiers and policemen can protect themselves since they are armed, Elaraby said.
"What is needed is the protection of civilians, not armed people. Let me be clear, this is the only point of disagreement," Elaraby said.
Syria has seen a sharp escalation in armed clashes recently, raising concerns the country of 22 million is headed toward civil war. The U.N. raised its death toll for the Syrian uprising substantially this week, saying more 5,000 people have been killed since the revolt began nine months ago.
Russia, which had opposed Security Council action on Syria, surprised council members on Thursday by introducing a draft resolution that "demands that all parties in Syria immediately stop any violence irrespective of where it comes from." The draft, however, does not mention sanctions, something that Western nations have been pushing.
The Arab League wants to see "that Arab resolutions are adopted rather than those of other nations," Hamad said in an apparent reference to the Russian draft.
The United States said it would only support the Russian draft if it were changed to make a clear distinction between the actions of peaceful protesters and those of the government.
An Iraqi delegation, meanwhile, met with Assad in Syria on Saturday to discuss ways of ending the crisis.
A member of the Iraqi delegation, Izzat Shahbandar, said the Syrian president informed them he is ready to open dialogue with the opposition, meet demands of opposition groups, abolish parts of the constitution and accept the results of future elections.
Shahbandar did not say what parts of the constitution Assad was ready to do away with, but some regime opponents have objected to section eight, which says the ruling Baath Party is the "leader of the nation and society."
Other opposition groups, however, say they will accept nothing less than regime change.
The Iraqi delegation will travel to Cairo, where the Arab League is headquartered, to raise Assad's comments with Arab League officials, Shahbandar said.
Many Iraqis fear that if civil war breaks out in Syria it could spread to Iraq, its eastern neighbor. Iraq was one of the few countries that abstained from voting in favor of Arab sanctions against Syri
Associated Press writer Qassim Abdul-Zahra contributed to this report from Baghdad.
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Their choice of observers of the UN human rights was the general who organized paramilitary genocide in Sudan.After this selection, how can we take seriously the Arab League on the issue of protection of human rights?
They are angry that Syria has aligned itself with Iran, but also do not want to be seen as actually doing jack squat-Assad's brutal repression of his people : kitchen.
The Arab League observers are serving a useful purpose by encouraging more people to go to the streets, even if they are not accomplishing the state one of restraining the Syrian security forces.
Daniel Serwer
http://bit.ly/tmpRrl
The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said security forces shot dead at least 20 people, most of them in the central province of Homs, a restive province that has seen intense protests and clashes since kitchenblog the uprising against President Bashar Assad began in March.
Another activist group, the Local Coordination Committees, said 34 people were killed, including eight army defectors. It did not say where the defectors were killed but there have been reports of clashes in the northwestern province of Idlib.
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