Thursday, March 31, 2011 - 3:12 PM
The Palestinian leadership seems to have
given up on
negotiations with the Netanyahu government
and is obviously moving towards seeking recognition
for a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, possibly in September this
year. Most pundits believe that they will muster a substantial majority in the
UN General Assembly.
Israel's foreign ministry has now informed the members of the Security Council as well as a number of European countries that it will react to this Palestinian move with a series of unilateral steps. There are indications that these might include the annexation of some major settlement blocs in the West Bank.
What on earth is this move supposed to achieve? Is it intended to frighten the Palestinians, the UN, or the EU? Does the foreign minister expect the international community to meekly accept Israel's annexation and immediately to stop the process of recognizing the Palestinian state?
This is a dangerous misreading of the international climate. Since the breakup of former Yugoslavia, international institutions have consistently supported demands for independence, from Kosovo to East Timor. As Aluf Benn has pointed out in a recent analytical piece, the world is likely to support many other national movements: it will probably accept the Kurdish demand for independence at some point, and it has, of course, made clear for decades that it accepts the Palestinian demand for a viable state within the 1967 borders.
Israel's situation becomes particularly sensitive on the background of recent developments in the Arab world. After some brief hesitations, the international community has decided to take a clear pro-democracy stance, first vis-à-vis Tunisia, then Egypt. In the case of Libya it has decided on the use of force to protect its population from Qaddafi's brutality.
Of course Israel is different in many respects: despite its shortcomings, it is a somewhat chaotic, but functioning representative democracy; and while international opinion has condemned the extent of destruction and killing Israel inflicted on Gaza in operation Cast Lead, the free world recognizes Israel's right to self-defense and does not suggest military intervention against Israel.
But Israel's occupation of the West Bank - and the continued construction of settlements and the expropriation of Palestinian buildings in Jerusalem - is widely seen as a human rights violation. This arrangement is not sustainable and pressure from public opinion worldwide is likely to rise: the Arab world will insist on parity of the free world's approach to Israel and Arabs, and many Europeans are bound to agree. The argument might be put forward that the free world cannot adhere to double standards. If Arab regimes are pressured into conforming to international law and respect for human rights, the same must be done with Israel.
Public opinion in Europe towards Israel is becoming ever more negative, and the young generation in the U.S. is seeing Israel ever more negatively. While most EU governments would probably prefer not to impose sanctions on Israel, they may come to the point where public opinion would leave them no choice. Unilateral steps by Israel like annexation of West Bank territory might tip the balance to the point at which they will feel that such sanctions are becoming inevitable.
Obviously it is in Israel's vital interest to avoid a situation in which the world, primarily the EU, Israel's largest trading partner, would impose sanctions or even a boycott on Israel.
What, then, can Israel do to avoid this scenario?
Here is a radical, yet simple, proposal that requires some thinking out of the box: UN recognition of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders actually should appease Israel's deepest existential fears. Netanyahu has been warning constantly that the world does not accept Israel's legitimacy. He seems not to notice that recognition of a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders would put an end to the doubts of many Israelis that the world does not want Israel to exist.
A Palestinian state along the 1967 boundaries means that Israel, for the first time in its history, would have internationally recognized borders. It would be clear that the Palestinians have no more legitimate demands on Israeli territory west of today's Green Line. This would silence the radical voices in the free world that do not accept Israel's existence.
The mainstream of the international community would now have a very clear case against any group like Hamas that doesn't accept Israel's right to exist. Israel could then count on a unified international front against Iran, Hezbollah, and other radical Islamist movements, and would no longer have to rely on unpalatable Islamophobic right-wing groups for support.
An Israeli government capable of thinking out of the box would welcome and sponsor UN recognition of the Palestinian state along the 1967 borders. Instead of trying to prevent this outcome, Israel would cooperate with the Palestinians and the UN to include the following provisos: one-on-one land-swaps need to be determined by negotiations between the two parties; implementation of the agreement needs to be gradual, taking into account Israel's security concerns. From the Al Jazeera leaks - the Palestine Papers - we know that the leadership of the Palestinian Authority is quite close to accepting these positions. Hence such a plan is quite realistic.
Israelis could finally breathe more freely: they would know that the country is no longer under diplomatic barrage, that neither sanctions nor boycott need to be expected, and that the international community would fully support Israel's right to self-defense if it were attacked from the State of Palestine.
Such a step could be expected by many observers who marvel at the daring of Israeli business entrepreneurs and the creativity of its scientists and artists. Quite unfortunately there is a huge gap between the mindsets of Israel's entrepreneurial and cultural elite and its political leadership. The foreign ministry's current threat to implement unilateral steps to counteract Palestinian UN recognition indicates that Israel's current leadership is very far from thinking out of the box; instead it is locked into a bunker with no connection to the outside world.
Carlo Strenger is a professor of psychology at Tel Aviv University and serves on the Terrorism Panel of the World Federation of Scientists. He is the author of numerous books, most recently The Fear of Insignificance: Searching for Meaning in the Twenty-first Century. He blogs at Strenger than Fiction on Haaretz.com.
AFP/Getty images
EXPLORE:INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, ISRAEL/PALESTINE, U.S. FOREIGN POLICY, UNITED NATIONS
Not until the phrase "security concerns" is unpacked is anything like what Strenger is suggesting likely to succeed. I have yet to read an analysis that does not treat "security concerns" as an Israeli trademark. Palestinians have no "security concerns," of course, because they, in their flesh, constitute the "concerns" that Israel has. Whether lobbing their firecrackers-on-steroids or having babies, Palestinians cannot avoid being Israel's "security concerns."
I fear for the future of both Israel and Palestine.
Strenger is wrong to count on internatinal support in the fight against rejectionists', Islamist or otherwise. The same things were said about previous concessions: pullout of Lebanon and Hezbollah will give up their guns, lose Lebanese support, and the "international community" will support Israel's right to self defense. 11 years later Hezbollah controls the Lebanese government, and while Israel was initially supported in the 2006 War, as soon as the TVs showed dead Lebanese, many in Europe got cold feet.
Same thing with the Gaza pullout: there was no ensuing international goodwill, the pressure has only grown. If Israel decides to pull out of the West Bank or do recognition, it should not be based on the illusion that normal diplomatic ties are around the corner. Concessions have historically only led to the empowerment and energizing of Israel's most resolute enemies.
1. "a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders".
This is geographically incoherent. At Arab insistence, the 1967 lines are not borders, but armistice lines. So far, Israel is within the 1967 lines, so where are you putting Arab Palestine, on top? Or did you mean outside the green line?
2. Annexing the settlement blocks would be the mildest possible response. You don't really expect Israeli Jewish communities to live under Arab rule, do you?
3. Speculation that "World opinion" would be more pro-Israel, if it would only make one more land deal, is totally unsupported by history, and presumes antisemitism has been playing no role whatsoever. Foolishness.
4. Military considerations over-rule the role of public opinion. Syria will treat Arab Palestine pretty much the way it treats Lebanon; a target for colonization. Both regions are part of their dream of Greater Syria and there is no reason for them to respect Arabs in Palestine more than Arabs in Lebanon.
Certainly Hezbollah, Iran, and Hamas would view a new west bank state as a fruit ripe for picking. Do you really think the successor to the PA will be able to fight off the combination of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria?
5. Granting non-Jews sovereignty over any portion of Palestine is a violation of the UN charter (article 80) and is not within the legal powers of the UN. But Israel and Jews aren't protected by international law, only God and the IDF.
Building on Areaman's argument
Is the reality that the 20 years of Oslo's negotiating was built on the foundation of the UN Security Council resolutions 242 and 338.
The Palestinians can go to the General Assembly all they want, but Israel will remind the UN, quite vigerously, that it is still operating on the basis of a UNSC resolution that includes the demand for both peaceful recognition of Israel, and secure borders.
Strenger tries to dance on the head of a pin by absolving what has become a modern version of the Arab "Three No's of Khartoum"
1. No negotiations with Israel
2. No recognition of Israel
3. No peace with Israel
By refusing to negotiate with the Netanyhu administration, Abu Mazen follows rule 1. The repeated claims by the Palestinian Authority rejecting Israel as an independent Jewish state is the second No, and by achieving a state of their own, the Palestinians will be under no pressure to reach any peace accord with Israel.
Given that roughly half of the Palestinians already support HAMAS, which refuses to even broach the subject of Israel, points to a Palestinian state based on these three standards.
Of course, such a state would be in breach of the Security Council resolutions, but apparently to people like Strenger, that doesn't matter at all.
6. "The Palestinian leadership seems to have given up onnegotiations with the Netanyahu government"
I hadn't noticed that they had tried.
If you want to kill the peace process, which Netanyahu has shown he does, annexations make perfect sense.
Isreal will never unilaterally accept a Palestinian state, for if it did, it would have to give up on all the support from the US and other governments. Also its dreams of expansion would be over. They still think that if they nibble around the edges of the 1967 borders long enough, that in the end they will have gobbled it all up.
This is such a brilliant plan on the part of the Palestinians. Force the point. Let's see the US veto this!
There is no Veto option in the General Assembly Mutt
But, the GA resolutions are non-binding, which means that for the Palestinians, they still face the issue of UNSC 242.
One has to question Strenger's assumptions given the following
To Quote: "An Israeli government capable of thinking out of the box would welcome and sponsor UN recognition of the Palestinian state along the 1967 borders. Instead of trying to prevent this outcome, Israel would cooperate with the Palestinians and the UN to include the following provisos: one-on-one land-swaps need to be determined by negotiations between the two parties; implementation of the agreement needs to be gradual, taking into account Israel's security concerns."
How is this different than the stand taken by the Netanyahu administration, one which was already rebuffed by the Palestinian Authority, who's leadership won't even deign to come to the negotiating table for nearly 18 months now?
Strenger also seems equally misinformed about "The World's" appetite to support independence movements. Realize that his two examples - East Timor, already included natural borders in the form of the island, while Yugoslavia's breakup was accompanied by tremendous bloodshed and ethnic cleansing.
By contrast, "The World" has not accepted independence movements from a wide variety of places, including Taiwan, Tibet, Somoliland's attempt to secede from Somolia, the Tamil attempt to break away from Sri Lanka, and Kashmir from India or Pakistan. While the Kurds may yet win a state of their own, given the violence perpetrated against them from Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey, UN recognition is unlikely to provide them with anything other than a sheet of paper, which will prove to be thin protection against the interests of these other states, who have previously and repeatedly shown a willingness to use force to prevent such a state from existing.
Likewise, for all of the claim that "The World" is against occupation, we see repeated examples of its acceptance, including Cyprus, and the Western Sahara.
Strenger as many other people commenting on the Middle East events chose to ignore the fact that "Palestinian state within the 1967 borders" will be nothing else but a "intermediate step to the Palestine from sea to sea (Mideteranian to Dead). These are the words of Yaser Arafat that have been so many times repeted by other Palestinian leaders. If you want to belive that after the creation of the Palestinian state there will be peace, you are hallusinating. The revolts that are currently going on across the Arab World showed again that the main argument that the Israeli-Paletinian conflict is in the core of the Middle East problems is a pure bluff.

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