Saudi Arabia strikes back

Posted By Jean-François Seznec Monday, March 14, 2011 - 6:53 PM Share

One thousand "lightly armed" Saudi troops and an unspecified number of troops from the United Arab Emirates entered Bahrain on the morning of March 14, in a bid to end the country's monthlong political crisis. They are reportedly heading for the town of Riffa, the stronghold of the ruling Khalifa family. The troops' task, apparently, is to protect the oil installations and basic infrastructure from the demonstrators.

The Arab intervention marks a dramatic escalation of Bahrain's political crisis, which has pitted the country's disgruntled Shiite majority against the Sunni ruling family -- and has also been exacerbated by quarrels between hard-liners and liberals within the Khalifa clan. The clashes between protesters and government forces worsened over the weekend, when the security services beat back demonstrators trying to block the highway to the capital of Manama's Financial Harbor. The protesters' disruption of the harbor, which was reportedly purchased by the conservative Prime Minister Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa for one dinar, was an important symbolic gesture by the opposition.

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RPC1987

2:45 AM ET

March 15, 2011

The Gulf Cooperation

The Gulf Cooperation Council's (GCC) decision to send troops from its Peninsula Shield Force into Bahrain is incredibly alarming. Kristin Smith Diwan reports on Foreign Affairs site, that "If the Gulf’s first attempt at an Egypt-inspired democratic revolution ends in sectarian strife and violent suppression of the Shia majority, the unrest will not be restricted to the tiny island. And the government in Iran will find a much more receptive political environment across Arabia for its hard-line message." Indeed, the GCC's decision will only deepen sectarian strife. The GCC countries are predominately Sunni Muslim and the troops they are sending, whether Sunni Muslims or not, will undoubtedly be viewed by Bahrain's the heavily Shia population, which comprises approximately 70 percent of Bahrain's population.

Another important consideration is that the decision to send foreign troops into another country experiencing political unrest is also, intended or not, a decision to go to war. Hence, the extreme apprehension the US has in establishing a no-fly zone in Libya right now. If the situation in Bahrain deteriorates due to some unforeseen event, many of the Gulf states may unexpectedly find themselves in a war they did not anticipate nor desire. This is a real, if not inevitable, possibility, just like a US or NATO fighter jet getting shot down by Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces is a real possibility that could drag the US and NATO into a war it would rather avoid. In this case, all it could take is one Peninsula Shield troop to shoot a Shia to send this situation into a tailspin that will prove unsalvageable.

And let's face it: if that happens, the Shia-dominated Iran will be the real winner no matter what the outcome. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will argue that Sunnis are collectively working together to suppress and oppress Bahraini Shias through violence. And considering how Bahrain's 30,000 strong military does not have a single Shia Bahraini in it, it is hard to poke holes in that narrative. While Shias across the Arab Peninsula won't rebel because of anything Ahmadinejad said, they will undoubtedly remember his statements and think more positively of Iran if events in Bahrain, and possibly the Peninsula, take a bloody turn.

And let us not forget that Saudi Arabia's Shia population, roughly 15 percent of its total population, populate its eastern region, where oil production is concentrated. Unrest in Bahrain is not necessary to stimulate an uprising amongst Saudi Shias: they can do what they wish regardless of what happens there. But there is little doubt that a traumatic turn of events due to the presence of Peninsula Shield troops in Bahrain could inspire unrest in Saudi Arabia. Such unrest may not bring down the Saudi kingdom, but it could raise concerns about the nation's ever-important oil supply. Oil prices have already been climbing. Further fears over Saudi Arabia's situation will drive them even higher. And since oil and food prices are interrelated, already rising food prices will climb even higher. A rise in both could easily throttle the global economic recovery by killing global demand for other goods and services and pushing the world's struggling poor into deeper poverty.

The Saudi government, and other GCC countries, undoubtedly believe that saving Bahrain is the equivalent of saving themselves. They fear Shia political dominance, or merely empowerment, in Bahrain will bring Iranian influence closer to their borders and view this latest provocation as a means of preventing that possibility. If anything, for the reasons just given, it appears their decision can, and quite possibly will, backfire on them. If they were really interested in preserving their own regimes' stability and trimming Iran's potential influence, they would urge the al-Khalifa regime to make necessary political changes and urge the ouster of Bahrain's Prime Minister immediately, the man many Shia Bahrainis want out. Not doing so will only incite a crisis the world cannot afford: a weaker economy and a more powerful Iran.

RPC1987

2:58 AM ET

March 15, 2011

Correction

The last line in Paragraph One should read: "The GCC countries are predominately Sunni Muslim and the troops they are sending, whether Sunni Muslims or not, will undoubtedly be viewed by Bahrain's heavily Shia population, which comprises approximately 70 percent of Bahrain's population, as provocative and threatening."