Posted By Joshua Walker Share

"Enough we say, the decision belongs to the people of the brotherly Egyptian and Tunisian nations... Turkey shares the grief of these nations as well as their hopes." So-declared a self-confident Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday in his prime-time speech on recent events in the Middle East that received broad coverage regionally. While commentators point to the protests and revolutions in the Arab world as being the most recent example of the crumbling vestiges of the Cold War, the more significant long-term global trend is strangely familiar to the Turks. Protests in Tunisia have already overthrown the rule of a 23 year-old regime and inspired a similar uprising in the form of Egypt's ongoing protest movement. Lebanon's continuing instability and threats of Tunisian-inspired revolutions in Yemen and even Jordan further add to the significance of the moment we are witnessing in the Arab world.

The unprecedented levels and inter-linkages of the protests against the traditional authoritarian regimes represented most starkly by President Mubarak, has brought the Middle East back to a period more reminiscent of the breakup of the Ottoman Empire and the rise of Arab nationalism than anything seen in recent memory.

The declarations and prognostications of analysts across the Arab world in the wake of these events has focused on the grassroots movements and pent-up resentments that led to the protests along with debates about the level of US involvement from twitter feeds to President Obama's statements. However the effect of this on the regional dynamics that has ushered in the remarkable arrival of a new player to the game of Middle Eastern great-power politics and the sidelining of traditional players is equally important to pay attention to.

At no time since their days at the helm of the Ottoman Empire have the Turks been as actively involved diplomatically (record number of visits bilaterally to Arab world in the last month alone with multiple visits to Lebanon and Syria for the foreign minister), economically (greatest increase in trade volume over any two year period), or politically (inclusion of Turkey into the Arab League and head of the Organization of Islamic Conference) as they are in the Arab world today. While this imperial baggage continues to cast a shadow over Turkish-Arab relations, the expediency of the present seems to have overcome the past. The almost immediate involvement of Turkey and Qatar in brokering a compromise after the government of Saad Hariri collapsed demonstrated the countries' interest in fostering regional stability. Prime Minister Erdogan's most recent speech, in which he warned President Mubarak to "step down" and "take steps that will satisfy his people," is a clear indicator of Turkey's arrival as the Middle East's self-appointed kingmaker.

Having waited for close to a week to make a grand proclamation on the events taking place in his neighborhood, Erdogan responded clearly and forcibly to his domestic critics of his foreign policy by placing Turkey on the side of the anti-regime movements throughout the Middle East. Proclaiming that, "Turkey is playing a role that can upturn all the stones in the region and that can change the course of history." Erdogan shone a spotlight on his Justice and Development Party's (AKP) pursuit of "foreign policy with character." Critics quickly pointed to Erdogan's hypocrisy when it came to his embrace of Iranian President Ahmadenijad's oppression of the Green Movement in 2009 and President Omar Al-Bashir's regime in Sudan, but few Turks seem concerned.

As seen from the region, Turkey's strategy of diplomatic and economic engagement has been a welcome one. With its non-sectarian and pragmatic focus, Ankara offers the greatest economic incentives to find a political and sustainable as opposed to violent solutions to the problems of the Middle East today. The opportunity for Ankara comes in part because of the lack of Arab leadership and in part because of its own proactive policies in a region that it once ignored. While leading Arab states, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have been less enthusiastic about the protest movements and Turkey's emerging role, particularly in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and intra-Arab affairs, fearing a loss of primacy in these areas they have little choice. Their very weakness in comparison to the economic opportunities and popularity of an indigenous democracy led by a freely elected legitimate conservative Muslim party makes the case for Turkey even stronger. On the whole, the Turks have been embraced by both the Arab states and street that welcome the pragmatic and business-savvy nature of Turkish diplomacy. As a gateway to both Europe and America, Turkey has already established itself an important player and convening spot for the actors of the region.

The popularity of Turkey and Erdogan within the Arab world has already allowed the AKP to turn traditional Turkish foreign policy on its head by drawing strength from its common heritage and history with its Middle Eastern neighbors rather than being a handicap. Turkish foreign policy under the AKP has come to articulate a vision for improving relations with all its neighbors, particularly by privileging its former Ottoman space in the Middle East, such as Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria where agreements are being negotiated for a free-trade zone and an eventual Middle Eastern Union. The growing economic and political engagement of Turkey with the Middle East has already lead to a significant realignment in the region.

Turkey offers the prospect of realigning the region by countering revisionist and securitizing trends rampant in the Middle East geopolitically while serving as an economic engine to propel the region. In today's Middle East, states like Iran and Israel through their rhetoric (particularly in the case of the former) and actions (more in the case of the latter) raise suspicion, anxiety and fear of revisionism, triggering an accelerated securitization in the region and do not offer a compelling sustainable economic or political model of success. By contrast, Turkey as an entrepreneurial free marketplace is trying to foster relations with all parties through bilateral relations and regional integration.

With the fastest growing and largest economy in the Middle East, Turkey is uniquely placed to play a decisive role in providing alternatives models for the newly emerging governments of the region. As a longtime ally of the West and new partner of Iran and Syria, Turkey has been seeking the role of mediator and model in every available arena including Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia. As a G-20 founding member, holder of a seat on the UN Security Council, European Union aspirant, and head of the OIC, Ankara has transformed itself into an international actor, capable of bringing considerable clout and influence to its regions. Turkey did not transform itself from a defeated post-Ottoman state led by Ataturk's military to a flourishing market-democracy overnight, it has been almost a century in the making, however the lessons learned and the opportunities offered by Turkey to Egypt and the rest of the Arab world should be cautiously heeded. The Turks are poised to return as the Middle East's most important and influential kingmaker.

Dr. Joshua W. Walker is a post-doctoral fellow at the Crown Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Brandeis University.

AFP/Getty images

 

TRANSTRIST

4:33 AM ET

February 4, 2011

How Israel is like Iran

"states like Iran and Israel through their rhetoric (particularly in the case of the former) and actions (more in the case of the latter) raise suspicion, anxiety and fear of revisionism, triggering an accelerated securitization in the region and do not offer a compelling sustainable economic or political model of success."

Especially Israel. Mr. Walker, is everything all right? Check your pills, please.

 

EURONAT

4:57 AM ET

February 4, 2011

Doesn't serve to your interests?

Not every single piece of American media and columnist is bought or influenced by the Jews, some write the truth.. whether you like it or not.

 

JBROCKLE

10:47 AM ET

February 4, 2011

 

SNYSNY

5:20 AM ET

February 4, 2011

get more in touch with Turkey

Joshua Walker writes: "Erdogan's hypocrisy when it came to his embrace of Iranian President Ahmadenijad's oppression of the Green Movement in 2009 and President Omar Al-Bashir's regime in Sudan, but few Turks seem concerned."

Many Turks are concerned about Erdo?an's hypocracy. Of course, if you rely on the self-censored Turkish press to form your opinions about what Turks are concerned about, you will get such distorted views. It amazes me how people who are so out of touch with Turkey become "experts"

P.S. most Turks do support the Egyptians' struggle for democracy and human rights

 

SNYSNY

7:30 AM ET

February 4, 2011

Being an expert in on Turkey in America

Dr. Walker would probably point out that his qualifications for being an expert on Turkey are based on the fact that he completed a doctorate at Yale (2010), with a thesis entitled, "Shadows of Empire: How Post-Imperial Successor States Shape Memories," a comparative study of how successor states to fallen empires like Japan and Turkey shaped their imperial memories.

This is not the place to critique this rather simplistically written dissertation (appallingly so, as even a quick perusal reveals). Perhaps more shocking is that one can graduate from Princeton's Department of Politics with a dissertation (which is supposed to be based on original research) partly dealing with Turkey which contains no more than 8 Turkish-language works in ones bibliography. Yes, I repeat--out of a 40-page bibliography there are only eight references to works written in Turkish!

Please Dr. Walker, if you intend to pose as an expert on Turkey, familiarize yourself with the Turkish language if you are not already, and start reading widely. The world cannot be understood primarily through English!

 

SNYSNY

7:31 AM ET

February 4, 2011

Being an expert on Turkey in America

Correct the title: Being an expert on Turkey in America

 

AMOUROA12

9:50 AM ET

February 4, 2011

Why hide the truth

Joshua, why do the west keep hiding the truth. The last revolt in the Middle East was against the British, and the French, it was not against the Ottoman. A big clue is that in the Middle East we have day of independence against those countries. You know and I know that the the west are responsible for those dictators, and yet now that the Arab people are speaking their mind. The west is still trying to alter history, so that they divide and conquer. As long as Israel stays in the Middle East it will not allow for it to be free, just like Bashar Al-Assad said "As long as the people have a major say in the future [of the Middle East], then you are going to have the minor say in the United States." And the west biggest fear is a rise of a powerful Islamic country, regardless if it was secular or not, they wanna keep it divided.

 

JBROCKLE

10:50 AM ET

February 4, 2011

Terrified in fact.

I wake up every morning, quaking in fear at the though of a powerful Islamic country.

 

WEDJATEYE

10:48 AM ET

February 4, 2011

The power of Erdogan in the region

The rationale behind the strong relations with Arap world and Turkey which has been a significant movement since the AKP started ruling the country as a single party in 2002 comes from a political target : non problematic relations between neighbors. It is clearly seen that Turkey has been trying to improve her relationships between Armenia (which unfortunately results in no action, though), Iran, Iraq, Syria ( This is the best example for my thesis. In 1998, Turkey deliberately intended to invade the country unless they wouldn't return Abdullah Ocalan. Immediately after, they had to send the terrorist leader to Italy. Additionally, Turkey and Syria used to have a long debated water crisis, plus Hatay. Having many problems bilaterally, the two countries have become a close ally. They boosted their economic and military investments.) The person who builds this policy is the current minister of foreign affairs, Ahmet Davutoglu, who used to be a consultant both to the government and to the armed forces. (For further reading, you can check his books out: Strategic Depth and Alternative Paradigms)

In my opinion, what makes Turkey as a regional political actor is Recep Tayyip Erdogan (RTE)'s harsh reactions to Israel over Palestine issue. He showed the courage of opposing Israel, which many of Arab leaders didn't use to do. Consequently, he has become a respected figure of the street, many of whom have become fed up with their current leaders because of many reasons. RTE actually doesn't act differently. He does the same to the people of Turkey and to the people of Middle East. Coming from Islamic root, he use the metalanguage, in other words, jargon of those people. He can approach them without any concern of diplomacy (after the popular Davos crisis between the Israeli President, he apparently said that he hadn't been a "monsieur", which referred to diplomats of the republic). He knows the characteristic nature of both Arabs and Turks. Namely, he is one step further than any other leader in the region.

However, depending on the reflections of opposition parties in Turkey, he hadn't done anything before Obama expressed his concern and addressed directly to Hosni Mubarak. This implies that he isn't dependent in the region. As in the article, despite many fierce oppositions and criticism over the relations with Sudan leader, he just turns a blind eye, which means that he's totally pragmatic but hypocritical. He is waiting Mubarak to be thrown down, but he cannot act without the initiatives of big brothers.

 

JACOB BLUES

12:45 PM ET

February 4, 2011

Showing courage and pandaring to the crowd

Turkey's 'courage' against Israel actually highlights the bankruptcy of its stand when at the same time Edrogan is castigating Israel, he is cozying up to leaders like Iran's Ahmadinejad and Sudan's al-Bashir.

And while he's screaming epitaths at Israeli political leaders, he's placing groups like HAMAS and Hizballah on pedestals.

Usually, I call that hypocrisy, not courage.

 

PULLER58

11:20 AM ET

February 4, 2011

Turkey and window dressing

Given some reports that have Erdogan weeding out secularists from the military, it strikes me that Turkey is having a slow moving revolution. At the end of that revolution, can anyone truly say that Turkey will still enjoy some measure of recognition as a "moderate" force in the Middle East?

 

DAVID BOYAJIAN

1:04 PM ET

February 4, 2011

A more sober view of Erdogan and Turkey

Walker sounds like he is smitten with Turkey. It's embarrassing.

For a more sober view of Erdogan and Turkey, please read the following article, titled "Is Erdogan Losing His Marbles?":

http://www.keghart.com/Editorial_Erdogan

 

HMAN

8:14 AM ET

March 1, 2011

the point

I think the point of the article is that Turkey is finally moving forward in the potential it had to connect the middle east to the rest of the world. Over the past decade the western world has marginalized teh arabic race as a whole. Presenting them all as extremist terrorists.

However, regardless of being Muslim, Turkish hasnt become a part of this stereotype. Politically and economically always been open to the western ideology. Actually been trying to become European for so long. but With Erdogan government blunt dream is slowly fading. Turkey is realizing that its not European and the western world will never accept it into their inner circle.. and why should they..

Perhaps the author overly positive on the possible outcomes of this wakeup of Turkish identity. I dont think its completely unrealistic. If Turkey uses its cultural and religious ties to connect with the people of the middle east not the governments.. Europeans might need Turkey even more to connect with the middle east. Including Israeli, being in such a tough location.. its not easy to exist without a balance of power in the region. I highly doubt there will be ab attack on israel from the countries in the region but Israel will become more pressured and cornered over the issues like Gaza. Turkey will play a key role over this issue. I am very certain that Turkey will be sensible thoughi given their latest favour to Israel with the Fire fighting planes.

 

NUMAN OZTURK

7:50 AM ET

February 5, 2011

why you are so jealous

Say something armanian or somebody else, why you are so jealous. Turkiye makes good for foreign policy to provide peace and brotherhood in the world. We love people due to GOD.We never hurt people.NO LESS.

 

The Middle East Channel offers unique analysis and insights on this diverse and vital region of more than 400 million.

Read More

Enter your email address to get twice-weekly updates from the Mideast Channel:

Delivered by Constant Contact