Posted By Nathan J. Brown Share

Tunisia, which had two presidents since becoming independent in 1956, has now had a series of three people claiming the post in less than 24 hours. What is going on?

Yesterday,President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali left the country a bit too hurriedly to either resign or leave instructions. So the prime minister stepped in front of television cameras and claimed he would temporarily assume presidential duties. He cited Article 56 of the Tunisian constitution. Its provisions allow the prime minister to assume the role of acting president when the president is temporarily unable to serve and issues a decree deputizing the premier.

Politically Ben Ali may have been dead, but constitutionally he was just on vacation. Opposition leaders cried foul.  In legalistic terms, where was the required decree? And in practical terms, this was a partial step at best. The regime stood as it had before, minus its head. There was no time limit to the "temporary" measure, and no new elections were scheduled.

 

So today,under continuing pressure, the scrambling and panicking regime moved down to Article 57, covering vacancy in the presidency. The Constitutional Council can declare the president incompetent to serve, allowing the speaker of the parliament to take the post as long as new elections are held within 60 days.

Do constitutional provisions really matter in a place like this? Can't rulers just do what they like? Is the opposition likely to accept a set of rules tailor-made for an authoritarian regime? The answer to the first two questions is yes. Constitutions can matter even in a place like Tunisia. The answer to the third question is more difficult -- use of the constitution would be a mixed bag for the opposition.

In normal times, constitutional provisions matter in a place like Tunisia because they give the rulers the tools to do whatever they want. Even authoritarian regimes need clear chains of command and authoritative structures just as much as liberal democratic ones. So they almost always issue constitutions and generally follow them -- it is just that the constitutional provisions are neither liberal nor democratic (and what seemingly liberal and democratic provisions exist are qualified out of meaningful existence). Of course, they do not want to have that constitutional language that will restrict them in any way. If that happens, they will show fewer scruples. But that is why Article 56 was so handy. By relying on it, Tunisia's remaining rulers seemed to be saying: "We are still in charge and we can still do what we want." That was why the step was less than satisfying.

But that also leads us to understand why constitutions can matter even in times of crisis. Today in Tunisia the constitution provides the only framework for the interim regime and the opposition to negotiate. Of course, revolutions in which constitutions are completely forgotten certainly occur. But not all regime changes happen that way -- sometimes they can be negotiated through existing constitutional mechanisms. That often happened in 1989 when communism fell in Eastern Europe, for instance. And in a case like Tunisia, in which decades of political repression have led to an opposition with weak leadership that has little ability to develop a detailed and unifying program, following the constitution may give it the breathing spell it needs while allowing state institutions to continue to function in the vacuum.

But Article 57 -- if that is what is used -- is a very mixed blessing for the opposition. The problems start when you read the fine print. The presidential elections have to be held according to the current constitutional provisions, and those allow only the Potemkin parliament (and a few other officials) the ability to nominate candidates. And while the acting president is serving, no constitutional amendments are allowed. In other words, invocation of Article 57 kicks into gear a process that was carefully designed for Ben Ali. It is designed for a figure handpicked by current top leaders, not for a truly open election.

Nathan J. Brown is professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.

FETHI BELAID/AFP/Getty Images

 

SPOUTINGHORN

9:47 AM ET

January 15, 2011

As for me

I blame Sarah Palin.

 

AHSON HASAN

10:50 PM ET

January 15, 2011

The Tunisian Entanglement

Life is an ever-developing evolutionary process. Nothing is eternal; all things living have to come to an end.

Ben Ali and all dictators known to modern history have met with rather unceremonious ends. Saddam, Ceausescu, Musharraf, Honekar, Marcos, Soeharto, Ayub and the like have all reminded us time and again that people power can tear apart everything and anything that comes their way.

However, beyond the idealist and passionate 'virtues' of politics, one is always perplexed the amount of money and resources loot and plunder of the nations that they lord over. Their immediate and extended families benefit and screw up institutions pushing the masses to primitive times.

Pakistan is one stark example of a country that took a nose-dive soon after its creation in the 1940s. After several prolonged episodes of military dictatorships, that nation has been reduced to nothing but a bloody hell. It is a polity divided against self. It’s a sadly toxic environment from which there is no way out.

Ben Ali's 23 years at the helm have finally come to an end but not before he safely exited unhurt with a truckload of family and friends. Worst of all, reports suggest, he landed in Saudi Arabia, another dictatorship and one of the major sponsors of terrorism the world over. The Saudis probably have decided to give him refuge.

The people of Tunisia deserve better leadership. Only time will tell if this utterly destabilized, truly chaotic nation will rise up to the occasion and grab the opportunity provided by Ben Ali's disappearance from the scene. The disjointed groups of people who brought his ‘empire’ down need to now join their hands together to start the rebuilding process.

 

OLIVER CHETTLE

4:19 PM ET

January 16, 2011

Economically Tunisia has done

Economically Tunisia has done quite well over recent decades, as we should all now be willing to recognise is possible under authoritarian regimes, and that provides a solid basis for future progress. Hopefully this regime will prove to be a little like Franco's: the left liked to pretend it was a complete disaster that ruined the country, yet it left Spain quite prosperous, and better fitted for democracy than it was in the 1930s.

 

DONOVAN007

3:32 AM ET

January 16, 2011

Implications?

While the Tunisian protests have already had an impact on neighboring states (protests followed in Algeria, Egypt, and Jordan), the real impact will come as a result of what happens next. If the political vacuum created by Ben Ali's ouster leads to turmoil, autocratic governments will highlight this as primary evidence of why their rule is necessary to maintain stability. But if something more positive emerges in Tunis, the wheels of reform (or perhaps revolution) will turn more quickly in the Arab world. Of course, the concern, at least from a Western standpoint, is that the alternative to the entrenched authoritarianism in Arab states is a radical Islamism. Think Iran's Islamic revolution.

I found a good overview and analysis of what's happening in Tunisia on http://streetsmartpolitics.com/?p=178

 

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