Posted By Elias Muhanna
Monday, August 9, 2010 - 10:00 PM
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This evening, in Lebanon's most widely anticipated press conference in recent memory, Hizbullah secretary-general Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah presented his party's case against Israel in the matter of the 2005 assassination of billionaire former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri.
Even by Nasrallah's standards, who is one of his generation's most gifted orators, the event was a masterpiece of political theater. Over the course of two hours, Nasrallah presented "material evidence" suggesting that Israel had been engaged in preparations for some sort of covert operation in Lebanon immediately prior to al-Hariri's assassination on Feb. 14, 2005.
The most significant and surprising piece of evidence came in the form of footage obtained from Israeli unmanned surveillance drones. Nasrallah revealed that Hizbullah had acquired the technical ability, some time in the early 1990s, to tap into the direct video feeds that passed from the many reconnaissance drones circulating in Lebanon's skies to the Israeli military command. What kind of qualitative edge did this breakthrough afford the party, and what implications would it have upon the five-year-long investigation into Hariri's murder?
This technological leap forward, said Nasrallah, enabled the party to study the areas under Israeli surveillance, which in some cases provided valuable counter-espionage information. On one such occasion in 1996, Hizbullah used this intelligence to lay an ambush at a spot they believed would be the scene of a future operation. Several months later, they were proven right when Israeli naval commandoes landed off the coast of Lebanon and proceeded precisely to that spot, near the village of Ansariyya, where a bloody firefight ensued.
Drawing upon an archive of surveillance footage, Nasrallah attempted to demonstrate that Israel was engaged in monitoring the routes that Rafiq al-Hariri traveled in the months building up to his assassination. This evidence, along with the confessions of recently arrested Israeli collaborators in Lebanon, represented the basis of Hizbullah's accusation.
The next several days will witness several rounds of discussion and debate about the credibility of Nasrallah's presentation. On the one hand, there can be no doubt that the revelation of Hizbullah's ability to access Israeli surveillance footage will be regarded as a stunning feat and another feather in Hizbullah's cap. Not since the famous "burning ship" address during the July War -- during which real-time footage of an Israeli Navy corvette engulfed in flames after being hit by two anti-ship missiles was displayed -- has Hizbullah's military prowess been demonstrated in so public a fashion.
On the other hand, many will not be convinced by Nasrallah's evidence, suggesting that a few snippets of footage cut out of 10 years of surveillance do not amount to proof of Israel's involvement. Others will wonder why the party did not make this evidence available earlier and why they now insist on handing it over to a Lebanese commission, rather than cooperating directly with the U.N. Special Tribunal.
The short-term result of this new development will be the simple fact that the Lebanese will now have two different sources of authority on the question of who killed Rafiq al-Hariri. Just as the old binaries of the 2005-09 period were fading away (March 14 vs. March 8, loyalists vs. opposition, etc.), a new one has arisen to take their place. The questions the Lebanese will now ask eachother will be: "Do you believe the U.N. or Hizbullah?" "Which story is more convincing?" "Which evidence is more compelling?"
Public opinion on these questions is far more important than one would think. As Nasrallah himself suggested toward the end of his press conference, the political value of an indictment against Hizbullah members lies less in the potential for implicating senior officials or foreign governments than in the ability to tarnish Hizbullah's image in Lebanon and throughout the Sunni Muslim world. By presenting an alternative narrative to the version of events that will be laid out, presumably, in the coming months by the U.N. prosecutor, Nasrallah is attempting to paint the STL -- in the most vivid colors possible -- as an American/Israeli tool targeting the resistance.
In the eye of the storm is Saad al-Hariri, the victim's son and Lebanon's current Prime Minister, who has been the primary champion of the STL's mission to find and punish his father's killers. On the eve of an indictment, the tribunal that helped Hariri build the political movement that he leads today now threatens to place him in an impossible position. Far from strengthening his hand in Lebanon and promoting the interests of his international allies, Hariri is faced with the possibility that the multi-million dollar, five-year investigation will deliver a verdict that he must publicly denounce, or else risk losing control of the country.
Caught between the need to maintain his political position and the determination to prosecute his father's cause, Hariri's ultimate decision about the STL is likely to determine whether Lebanon continues along its current path of cautious consensual politics, or whether it finds itself, once again, on the brink of a major sectarian conflict.
Elias Muhanna writes the Lebanese political blog qifanabki.com. He is a Ph.D. candidate in Arabic and Islamic studies at Harvard University.
Excellent article Elias
And I would like to add the following:
- Those Lebanese who insist on continuing to believe the UN/Israeli version of who killed Hariri should really start questioning the reliability of the investigation that so changed its focus to Hezbollah after years of being so damn sure Syria did it. All those specific details that related directly to Syria (with no Hezbollah involvement) were thrown out the window this year in favor of indicting Hezbollah.
I find that pathetic.
- Nasrallah did not share and present everything he had. He still has things to show us the day he will find out the the tribunal is indicting Hezbollah. He also has many pieces of evidence that senior Lebanese officials were involved in the fabrication of evidence against Syria. But again, he agreed to not get there because he committed to Syrian President and the Saudi King who visited Lebanon last week, to not do anything that might threaten Lebanon's difficult sectarian balance.
Wait for chapters 2 and 3 ...
What a complete nonsense !!!
"Those Lebanese who insist on continuing to believe the UN/Israeli version of who killed Hariri should really start questioning the reliability of the investigation"
what are the elements that are making you say that the investigation is an Israeli version?? who told you they will accuse hezbollah? let me guess, Der Spiegel!!!!
the STL is made of 250 employees from 59 different countries !!! the funds are from 30 or more countries!! and you are telling me that all those people are corrupt and israeli agents!!!
I really hope as a Lebanese that the assassination was not committed by a Lebanese party but we have to be serious in this matter...
I have a simple question for you :
How come Ghazi Kenaan back in 2005 committed "suicide" ??
I did not say the pictures were from the time of the assassination but they are from the year before, and I did not pay too much attention to the pictures even though I have no doubt Nasrallah can demonstrate that they are indeed from Israelis drones, unlike the comical Bush administration efforts to falsify evidence, Nasrallah is not known to be a liar.
I found the testimonies of Israel's agents in Lebanon much more interesting.
Nasrallah was trying to show that it is possible (he did not claim he had a proof) that Israel was interested in assassinating anti Syria figures in order to implicate Syria or Hezbollah in those assassinations... Israel was spying on March 14 leaders ... he did not interrogate those Israeli collaborators, it was the official Lebanese security agents that questioned them, and they are not under Syria's control anymore these days as everyone knows.
If those Israeli agents testified that Israel asked them to describe the President of Lebanon's residence and how far it takes to walk from a specific point by the sea, or if Israel asked them to report on Geagea's movements then this is a fact and not a Nasrallah opinion.
I realize Israelis will laugh, but those who remember that Israel did not mind killing and injuring tens of thousands of innocent Lebanese people during its many invasions of that country, will not find it that funny and that crazy of an idea that Israel would assassinate one Lebanese politician in order to weaken Syria and its allies.
...you say, "I realize Israelis will laugh, but those who remember that Israel did not mind killing and injuring tens of thousands of innocent Lebanese people during its many invasions of that country...", but may I remind you that without Hizbollah in Lebanon, Israel would not have harmed ONE person...
So, it seems that the responsibility for those lives belongs with the person that causes the problem.
And, that person ain't Israel - it's the head of Hizbollah. The same guy that admitted to "miscalculating" Israel's response to his ordering his terrorists to go INTO Israel and kill three soldiers and then kidnap, torture and kill the two that they were able to grab.
And, you are supporting this guy.
People with more hate and partisanship than intelligence and shame really are curious to me.
What's it like to support a war criminal terrorist?
EVERY death in Lebanon is because Hizbollah causes Israel to have to defend their Northern border.
Spin on, terror rationalizer. Spin on.
...they don't care.
They just want to attack Israel.
That the reality that the core and only reason that Israel ever messed with Lebanon was Hizbollah's attacks? Well, that's not relevant to them.
These people remind me of a drunk in a bar who picks a fight, only to be brutalized by the person that they started a fight with, and then whines about being beaten up.
What can I say...stupid people say stupid things, and the biased and bigoted are rarely the smartest ones in the room.
You said: "Say "millions", will you?"
Why? ... Are you denying that Israel killed or injured tens of thousands during its many invasions of Lebanon?
Here is what lovely and humane Israel did in 1982 alone:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War#Casualties
"Lebanon - civilians 17, 825 and around 30,000 wounded"
Before we go all over the place, the original point you were making was " You do realize that Samir Geagea is the most pro-Israeli politician in Lebanon?"
And to answer you I suggested, again, that Israel that killed and injured tens of thousands of innocent Lebanese people will have no problem killing a politician or two if it serves Israeli national interests.
I am not saying that I KNOW that Israel killed Hariri ... If I said that then I would be a terrible judge, just like anyone who insisted from day1 and for years that Syria killed Hariri before looking at any evidence.
They need to stop hiding the fact that Israel is one of the main suspects of that assassination... Israel is the party that is the most experienced and skilled in political assassinations, it is never shy from killing innocent people in large numbers, ... and the Hariri assassination is what drove Syria out of Lebanon and installed a set of pro American (and even Pro Israel) politicians in leading positions in Lebanon...
Let a proper investigation examine the evidence!
They won't ... the whole thing will be wrapped up now that Nasrallah went on the offensive. The Americans will not dare start a process that MIGHT lead to Israel's door.
Dear Trantrist
I am glad that I made you laugh twice already with my comical arguments.
I just hope you read again what I wrote. I did not conclude "so Israel MUST BE behind the death of Hariri" as you seem to think. I was very clear in writing "a process that MIGHT lead to Israel's door" and "They need to stop hiding the fact that Israel is ONE OF the main suspects of that assassination"
Let them spend five more years exploring the Syria option that led them nowhere, but let them also investigate Israel as they should.
I don't think "Practically, no - a democracy can't risk such exposure" is sufficient. If we follow this logic then every judge should not consider successful businessmen as murder suspects because "surely he would not do it and risk ruining his reputation in the business community".
Democracies are not under the direct control of God as you know. They do stupid things and they take risks and they get over confident sometimes, especially when they know that they never get seriously punished for anything ... ask Ariel Sharon if he ended in jail for his role in Sabra and Shatilla massacres.
Back to our main point ... If Israel is so confident it had no role in that assassination then it should encourage UN investigators to come pay them a visit. That would be the best way to challenge Nasrallah.
And finally, as I will now go to work, even if israel is investigated, no one will find a link because as you suggested, assassinations of this significance are not executed by Israeli (or Syrian) agents ... they are instead done through a number of layers of intermediaries who have no clue who is paying them (in case of professional assassins) or motivating them (for religious/patriotic causes) to do it.
"I am glad that I made you laugh twice already with my comical arguments."
The sad fact is that his laughing is to cover the sadness; no doubt, of someone like you who supports a war criminal and his terrorist organization which CAUSED all of this death which you decry.
Do you not understand this? You are supporting a man that has LED TO ALL OF THIS DEATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What part of that is confusing?
Israel's Hasbara system is very simple ... everything bad is caused by the Arabs while poor innocent Israel never did anything wrong.
And Israel's enemies are all "fascists" and "war criminals"... but Israel's prime ministers are only there to defend their poor weak little country from those Arab "murderers".
Dear two Israeli Hasbara robots who hated the facts I listed above,
Please send someone with a bit more substance and I will be happy to debate her or him. I don't like debating the same Israeli pre-programmed online robots again... relying on classic character assassination tactics (|shame on Camille becuse he supports a war criminal") is not too convincing these days.
I do no "support" anyone. It is possible that Hezbollah killed Hariri, and it is possible Israel killed him. We need both sides to be investigated, just like in any professional uncorrupted investigation.
If you want answers to your generic opinions expressed here, I suggest going through this site:
http://www.onemideast.org
Or download, print, and read all 43 pages in this report:
http://www.onemideast.org/Onemideast_full_content.pdf
Why don't you bring the old favorite "antisemite"?
Alright, you want me to not be a coward. You got it. I will stick around a bit longer to continue our lovely discussion.
So your main argument is that Israel can do nothing wrong?
Then ... Let me suggest this article to you:
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/a-state-afraid-of-its-past-1.304711
I can't wait to read your next intellectual arguments. Let's see, "coward" is already used, "terror supporter" perhaps? .. surely I deserve it for linking to a Haaretz article.
The gentleman at the beginning of this comments section disagreed with me and I did not call him a Hasbara robot because he was making enough sense. But the two of you are not. All you do is entertain me with your amazing ability to sustain the personal attacks ... "idiot" is the new one I got in your last comment.
I am happy you read Haaretz everyday, now please take a look at the article I linked to and tell me if you still can continue to make your original argument that all evil and all bloodshed in Lebanon was the responsibility of the Arabs (Nasrallah) and never the responsibility of Israel whose forces killed 17,850 Lebanese civilians in 1982 alone and injured over 30,000 ...
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that your point? that Nasrallah is the source of all evil ... I argued back by linking to an article in an Israeli newspaper that talks about Israel's abuses of human rights, its assassination and killing of innocent civilians ...
And that is exactly the original point of this whole discussion ... is it possible for Israel to kill an innocent man (Hariri in this case) if it was in its national interest to do so?
Again, since you don't seem to be able to understand much of what I wrote, I am not saying that Israel killed Hariri .. I am saying that Israel is one of the main suspects and it should be investigated.
And guess what ... the tribunal is apparently convinced, sorry, but ... the process started:
Google this Haaretz article from yesterday
"Hariri tribunal court requests evidence from Hezbollah leader
Court asks Hezbollah leader Nasrallah to prove Israel was involved in murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri."
Now, without calling me an idiot or a terror supporter ... can you tell us what you think of the tribunal's decision to start looking at Hezbollah's evidence seriously?
Did I mention Hasbara with Transtrist?
He/she was totally pro Israel, but made some valid arguments.
You, on the other hand have the lovely Hasbara operating manual memorized.
Your last comment still did not answer me and you called me "hypocrite" .. but with a question mark at the end! .. so I guess it is an improvement... you are twisting the Hasbara rules. You know, ... you were supposed to call me "Hypocrite" with total confidence.
This was an excellent presentation by Nasrallah. He provided enough evidence to make pointing the finger at Israel a real possibility. Failure of the STL to investigate the the evidence presented will render any indictments issued soon meaningless and will difinately loose any credibility it may still have specially after having accused Syria of the assassination for the previous 5 years. Love him or hate him; Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah is the cleverest most credible politician in the ME.
Nassrallah's offering a red herring to obscufate the light
that is shining on Hizballah's activities.
.
Let's remember full well, that Hizballah is an organization that has shown no hesitation in killing Lebanese when it comes to protecting the organization.
.
Barely two years ago, Hizballah forces took to the Beruit streets to fight the government when it was told to relinquish its own private military communications system. In addition, Hizballah throws its own bulk around against the UNIFIL troops when its arms cache's are threatened with no more than exposure.
.
This was not the first time that Hizballah willingly put Lebanese under the gun. In 2006, Hizballah brought ruin to parts of Lebanon thanks to its military adventure with Israel.
.
Of course, rather than learn from that experience, and try to bring about an end to the border hostilities, Hizballah decided to double-down on its missile strategy, figuring that if it has enough rockets, it can force Israel to back down on its own threats of force.
.
It's a losing bet.
.
But we should trust Nasrrallah as a benevolent and moderating presence in Lebanon.
.
Right.
I think your first argument implicate Israel more than Hizbullah. Let's not forget that Israel indiscriminately killed over 1000 lebanese civilians in 33 days war with Hizbullah in 2006. A war in which by all accounts Israel got a real beating. Furthermore Israel indiscriminately killed over 1200 Gazans 2 years later in which Israeli leaders are facing war crime charges and run away from European cities lest they get arrested.
I think Israeli leaders shoul learn that might does'nt make right and know that those who live by the sword will perish by it.
Israel nowdays are more detered by Hizbullah than the other way around because they know that Hizbullah do their homework very well just as Nasrallah did last night in his excellent presentation. But I suppose some will never see the truth even if it hits them in the face....just like last night
I'll forgive you for your lack of knowledge of what the word "indiscriminately" means, since you seem to not be a native speaker.
"Let's not forget that Israel indiscriminately killed over 1000 lebanese civilians in 33 days war with Hizbullah in 2006."
Indiscriminately: not marked by careful distinction
So, what you are suggesting is that Israel took no care in the war with Hizbollah? Really? Civilians die in wars, JMOMANI, and if you don't want civilians to die, then don't start wars where civilians will die.
"A war in which by all accounts Israel got a real beating."
So, let me get this straight... When you say "by all accounts" you mean you and your biased friends and sources, right?
So, where 117 Israelis died, next to over 1K Lebanese...and you want to suggest that "by all accounts Israel got a real beating"? Israel killed between 250 and 1000 Hizbollah terrorists, and you want to suggest that "by all accounts Israel got a real beating"?
They got a relative black eye, while - as usual - the Lebanese were trounced and beaten and bloody.
All because Hizbollah chose to go INTO Israel and kill five Israelis.
And you support Hizbollah.
You should be ashamed.
"those who live by the sword will perish by it."
If you were fair with your beliefs and logic, you'd recognize that this statement is far more relevant to Hamas and Hizbollah than it is for Israel.
Israel has made peace with everyone that ever genuinely wanted peace. Those innocent people in Lebanon and then Gaza are dead ONLY because Hizbollah/Hamas chose to attack Israel.
Why can you not understand this? After Israel left Lebanon, they did not again go to war in Lebanon for over two years, all the while Hizbollah was attacking Israel, taking their lack of an invasion of Lebanon as weakness - well, after two years of Israel saying to the UN, 'If you do not stop Hizbollah as you promised to do, we'll do it ourselves', and they did. Same with Gaza. It took three years and over eight thousand mortars and rockets for Israel to finally do something about Hamas' war crimes against Israel.
So, think about that.
You support Hamas and Hizbollah, both overt and belligerent war criminal terror organizations. These terror groups caused Israel to attack/invade, and thus without their provocation and attacks on Israel, every single one of these people killed would still be with their families.
The fault lies with the terror groups Hamas/Hizbollah. A fact that you can't admit because of your bias.
It's going to take people like YOU telling Hamas/Hizbollah to stop attacking Israel before they'll stop. But, you're too hateful and unintelligent to do so.
you attack Israeli soldiers and Israel will kill your civilians. Goldstone report accused Israel of crimes against humanity exactly because of this long standing Israeli policy of killing and targeting civilians indiscriminately.
Everything is Israel's fault. The holocaust, global warming, Arab insanity.
Lebanese leaders cannot be held responsible for their actions!
Of course Hezbollah assassinated Hariri. Why wouldn't they? Syria murdered 500+ opposition figures during their occupation of Lebanon (REAL OCCUPATION, not Israel's 15 kilometer buffer zone which was decried by the Left)
Hezbollah is not a reliable source. It's about as reliable as Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The Left is so pussy-wiped by Islamists that they'll sit down and *consider* their POV because Israel is always wrong.
Hezbollah has been hunting rivaling Lebanese leaders who are sick and tired of their dictatorial-styled government - oppressing critics, murdering opposition leaders, stifling the media, everything the left supposedly-hates but ignores when terrorist organizations do it.
Hundreds of christian Lebanese generals are being accused of spying for Israel without evidence. Basically, anyone who doesn't tow the Syrian line is an Israeli spy.
Same deal with the Palestinians. Any Palestinian who didn't follow the PLO line was killed as a "collaborator" (2200 killed since 1987). Silence from the left of course.
For those who bitch and moan about the 1982 war, please - had Israel not invaded PLO would still be fucking up Lebanon. And don't forget - every nation wanted the PLO out, Syria, Lebanon, even Jordan. And Syria killed WAY MORE Lebanon civilians than Israel, but that doesn't bother the Left at all.
Israel's performance in Lebanon was still superior to any wars we have fought - Iraq, Gulf war, Afghanistan, Vietnam.
Israel is by far one of the most moral armies out there. Treated over 160,000 wounded Lebanese during the conflict, airlifted them to Israeli hospitals. Whereas US forces have killed 50,000+ and displaced millions, never to return. And this is under Obama.
So the Left needs to look in the fucking mirror. I wish we would behave more like Israel, maybe we wouldn't be in Iraq and Afghanistan, or bombing Somalia and Yemen.
...stop saying "Left". It's the far-Left, not just the "Left". Saying that makes everyone in the "Right" as stupid as those at the far end of the Right, correct?
So, are you as crazy as the far-Righties that plague us here in America? Maybe, maybe not - but I'd not paint every Republican and Righty here in America with the same brush as which you are saying about all Democrats/Lefties. Why? Because such a thing is stupid.
The Left has consistently shown itself to show far more positive views towards Islamic apartheid states than Israel, on average.
Polls demonstrate this over and over again. Funny how you get offended when I generalize Leftists but the Leftists have no problem generalizing Zionists and condemning Israel with a zero-sum mentality (disagreeing with a single policy = disagreeing with the entire nation).
I would love to know the name of the members who are part of this STL .
I will not trust them if they are found to have good relations with Israel in the past.
I think it is time for the international community to come together and clearly tell Israel to lay off from Lebanese matters.
By the way as per as myself is concerned Israel assasinated Lebanese leader Imad Mougniyah in cold blood in 2008-9. When will the Israeli butchers of Imad Mougniyah be put on a trial in a court of international reputation ?
And when I talk about Israeli butchers I want to include Meir Dagan , the bloodthirsty Mossad chief , Ehud barak and Zipi Livni who also were behind the assasination of Imad Mugniyah , one of the greatest sons of Lebanon .
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