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Posted By Daniel Levy Share

Friday is weekend newspaper day in Israel, and when the political waters are stormy that's normally an occasion for the big papers to tell the public what their fellow citizens think with some new polling data. This week was certainly not without its political turmoil in Israel, and this sabbath's papers did not disappoint.

The leading circulation daily Yedioth Ahronoth and the more high-brow Ha'aretz both carried new surveys delving into the U.S.-Israel spat and how it is impacting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. Israel Radio (Reshet Bet) released its more minimalist numbers yesterday.

Bits and pieces of this have been reported in the English language media, including the Ha'aretz headline, "Most Israelis see Obama as fair and friendly," but we are not aware of a more comprehensive translation of this new data regarding Israeli public attitudes. So here it is - with only a little editorializing.

Bottom line - opinion, unsurprisingly, is divided on whom to blame and what next, with sympathy for the position of the Obama administration polling higher than might have been expected. Netanyahu has been hurt by this-noticeably though not dramatically-and there is a suggestion that the right-ward shift in Israeli opinion is beginning to be reversed when the consequences of the right's policies for U.S.-Israel relations are brought into sharp relief.

The polling numbers are divided into thematic categories below, and the more in the local, political weeds parts of the surveys have not been translated (it might be entertaining to discover, for instance, that only 8 percent of Israelis know which position Deputy PM Dan Meridor holds in the government, but it is of little consequence on this side of the pond).

1. U.S.-Israel relationship

Yedioth: "Can Israel exist securely without the support of the U.S.?" Yes-28 percent; No-68 percent.

Ha'aretz: "Do you think Obama was exploiting the building in Jerusalem to try and bring down the Netanyahu government?" Yes-31 percent; No-55 percent; Don't know-14 percent.

Israelis value and understand the importance of the U.S. relationship to Israel and most are instinctively uncomfortable when the relationship appears in any way wobbly, especially when their own government might be behaving in an irresponsible manner. Early this week, Yedioth ran a several article feature on how a deterioration in U.S.-Israel relations could negatively impact Israel, including in terms of the economy, security, and diplomatic cover in the world.

When Netanyahu was first prime minister in the late 1990's and when Yitzhak Shamir was prime minister in the beginning of that decade both were seen to cause ruptures in the special relationship, and both lost subsequent elections in part though not exclusively as a consequence of that. Jeffrey Goldberg in his blog has claimed that Obama is trying to bring down the Netanyahu government - Israelis apparently don't see it that way.

2. This week's disagreement:  who was to blame; to freeze or not to freeze

Haaretz: "How would you define PM Netanyahu's management of this episode - responsible or irresponsible?" Responsible-42 percent; Irresponsible-37 percent; Don't know-27 percent.

Yedioth: "Who is to blame for the crisis with the U.S.?" Israel-35 percent; U.S.-37percent.

Israel Radio: "Who contributed more to this crisis between the U.S. and Israel? Mainly Barack Obama-41 percent; mainly Benjamin Netanyahu-37 percent; both of them equally-7 percent

Israel Radio: "Do you think the American government's response toward Netanyahu and Israel was..."Justified and at a correct and appropriate level-17 percent; Justified but totally exaggerated-31 percent; Both unjustified and exaggerated-43 percent.

Haaretz: "Some say that Israel needs to stop building in Jerusalem until the conclusion of negotiations with the Palestinians, others say that Israel needs to continue building in all of the city even if the cost is tension with the United States. What is your position?" Keep building in all Jerusalem with cost vis U.S.-48 percent; Stop building in Jerusalem through negotiations-41 percent; Don't know-11 percent.

Yedioth: "Should the construction in East Jerusalem be frozen as well? Yes-46 percent; No-51 percent.

Yedioth: "Should Netanyahu extend the construction freeze in the settlements?" He should extend the freeze-44 percent; He should stop the freeze-46 percent.

It can be considered somewhat eye-opening that the numbers are so evenly split on responsibility and blame, and on whether to build or not in East Jerusalem - especially given everything we had been previously told about how little trust Israelis place in Obama. Israelis are not rallying behind their prime minister in great numbers. That such high percentages would support an East Jerusalem freeze is perhaps most striking. Jerusalem is, of course, a particularly contentious issue and the freeze position has almost zero support in the Knesset (the number of Zionist members of Knesset who express support for an East Jerusalem freeze can be counted on less than one hand). The Israeli public is well ahead of its elected officials on this score.

3. President Obama's standing in Israel

Only the Ha'aretz poll explored the broader issue of how Israelis view the current U.S. president, and it picked up on a story this week in which Benjamin Netanyahu's brother-in-law very publicly accused Obama of being an anti-Semite.

"There are people who claim that President Obama is an anti-Semite - do you agree or disagree?" Agree-27 percent; Disagree-56 percent; Don't know-17 percent.

"How would you define the way in which President Obama relates to Israel?" To the point (or "fair" in the Ha'aretz headline translation -51 percent; Hostile-21 percent; Friendly-18 percent; Don't know-10 percent.

The numbers hardly hit a historical high note for an American president, but largely accord with what this New America Foundation poll found late last year and further put to rest the misreported and essentially spurious "single digit approval rating" meme that some Republican and pro-Israel right wing sympathizers continue to promote. A minority but a numerically noteworthy one in Israel clearly do not like or trust the president and are willing to use the anti-Semite label.

4. How does this affect Netanyahu's standing?

Haaretz: "Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of PM Netanyahu?" Satisfied-42 percent; Not satisfied-44 percent; Don't know-14 percent.

Yedioth: "Does the government, in its decisions and its behavior, represent you?" Yes-31 percent; No-64 percent.

Yedioth: "Does Netanyahu lead the government, or do his partners lead him?" He leads-41 percent; He is led-47 percent.

Israel Radio - "In terms of leadership ability, to what extent is PM Netanyahu suitable to being Israel's prime minister?" Very suitable-16 ½ percent; Suitable enough-27 percent; Not so suitable-26 percent; Not at all suitable 25 percent.

Yedioth: "Who is most suitable to serve as prime minister?" Benjamin Netanyahu-41 percent; Tzipi Livni-33 percent; Ehud Barak-11 perecent.

Ha'aretz: "Who is most suitable to be prime minister?" Benjamin Netanyahu-36 percent; Tzipi Livni-26 percent; Avigdor Lieberman- 9 percent; Ehud Barak-6 percent.

The Yedioth poll also has numbers that show Israelis would much prefer Kadima to be in the governing coalition in place of Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman's party). These approval/suitability numbers are not good for Bibi, and he is on a downward trend in terms of his personal ratings (will try to update this later with comparative numbers over time, but they are down). Netanyahu has taken a knock from this latest episode.

The flipside is that Israelis are still not convinced that Opposition Leader Livni is suited for the top job. Part of that is no doubt that she has simply never been prime minister, but it also shows that she still has some convincing to do. Ehud Barak is irrelevant as a leader of the Labor Party but extremely useful to Netanyahu internationally as an apparent legitimizer of the government's "pro-peace" credentials - not surprising then that Barak is reportedly joining Netanyahu and will be in all of the meetings during his U.S. visit next week.

5. And its impact on Israeli electoral politics

Yedioth: "If Knesset elections were to be held today, how would you vote?"

Kadima-32; Likud-29; Yisrael Beiteinu-13; Shas-10; Labor Party-8; Meretz-6; United Torah Judaism-6; Hadash-4; United Arab List-Arab Movement for Renewal-4; Balad-3; National Union-National Religious Party-3; Jewish Home-2.

(Israel Radio did a similar poll, but they included as an option a non-existent party that is thus far only being talked about and that would be led by popular TV and media personality Yair Lapid. The non-existent party polled sufficiently high - 14 seats as to categorize that poll under the heading quirky rather than serious).

In many ways, this is the big news - it is the first poll for some considerable time that has the center-left back in play as a potential governing alternative by approaching the magical Israeli political number of 61 (the Knesset has 120 seats). It may prove to be a one-off but if not, this begins to get interesting.

Israeli politics basically divides into the following blocs: right/far-right/religious right versus center/center-left/Arab-left. These are of course generalizations but the division into two blocs, right versus center-left along these lines, is the defining one in Israeli politics and in forming governing coalitions. In the last election, the split was right 65-center-left 55, and since then the numbers have trended further rightwards. This recent poll had the split at 70-50 to the right. This weekend's numbers swing back to a competitive 63-57 divide.

6. Finally... Iran

Yedioth: "Will the current Netanyahu government attack Iran?" Yes-24 percent; No-65 percent.

Daniel Levy directs the Middle East Task Force at the New America Foundation and is one of the Middle East Channel's editors.

AFP/Getty Images

 
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DAVE123

5:14 PM ET

March 19, 2010

One thing to note, the poll

One thing to note, the poll was of both Israeli Arabs and Jews so this is not an accurate picture of what each group thinks.

 

DENVERITALIAN

1:57 AM ET

March 20, 2010

Thanks for pointing this out

Thanks for pointing this out Dave. Wouldn't want to be misled into thinking this is what "real" Israeli's think. Damn those pesky Arabs for throwing off the polling numbers.

 

RON1000

4:42 AM ET

March 24, 2010

Are the writers of this article really interested in truth?

Strange to read an article purporting to understand how Israelis view Obama and the arab-israeli conflict, by printing sample results that at the same time hide the exteremely relevant information on the sample population. As was discussed by some other commentors before me, the sample population included 20% Israel Arabs, many of whom are militantly anti-Israel and Palestinian nationalists (e.g. Balad) alike. If a question was asked in the poll, if Israeli Jews should be expelled to European homelands, most of this 20% would affirm resoundingly (would the author's publish this?).

With such stark differences between Jews and Israeli Arabs on the basic issues relating to Israel's legitimatcy and survival, it is highly disingenious for the authors to deliberately paper over this wide chasm, claiming Israeli Arabs are simply not there. The reality of the situation is that after the last terror intifda in 2000, the Israel Jewish left, aside from a very small radical fringe (5%) has effectively been co-opted into a center-right point of view vis a vis the Palestianian/Arab issues, including strong dislike for Obama and his public un-envenhandedness stance regarding the conflict.

Readers wishing to understand how the vast majority of Israelis (including secular ashkenazim) view this should note my informed perpective. The truth is that most Israelis have absolutely no fatith in a real peace occuring with the Arabs, and know that a Palestianian state (with full soverignty) will seriously jeopardize Israel's long term security, given the geography, the culture of the Arab intransigance/desire for revenge, and the Israel's very narrow room for error both militaily and in gaining continued international support (i.e., support relying soly on values of shared democratic culture and Western amends for the holocaust). Israelis know, that a Palestinian state will inevitably bring the especially radical Palesitian diaspora back into the West bank and destabilize even the strongest Palestinian govenrnment seeking normal ties with Israel. Any incidents against Israel by rogue Palestinian citizens will inevitably lead to strong to censure against any Israeli response (as was the case with the Gaza rocket attaks), while the world will always be afraid to truely respond to Arab aggression because of their dependency on Arab oil (as is the case with present day Iranian threats against Israel) .

These and other arguements have convinced 90-95% of the Israel Jewish population that a Palestian state is simply not in their interests, regardless of the long term demographic consequences (which are not as clear cut as many argue). Without a tremendous, long-term effort on the part of the Arabs to convince Jewish Israelis, that the Arabs desire and are truely and sincerely commmitted to peace with a Jewish Israel, Isrealis will not back any peace settlement, imposed from outside or from some strange short-term corrupted government coaliation of far left, supported heavily from foreign governments.

 

BILLY396

3:24 PM ET

March 24, 2010

Israel

There's no question that Obama has taken a 180 degree turn regarding the Israelis. Every US President in recent memory has condemned the Palestinians for the suicide bombings and for shooting rockets into civilian areas. Now, Obama goes to Egypt, Turkey, Yemen, et.al., and apologizes for American actions. He stands in Cairo and tells the blatant, open lie that America is not a Christian nation. He tells the people in Turkey and Jordan that 'you could call the U.S. a Muslim nation'. Why would any American president tell such lies? Barack Obama is more of a danger to the safety of American citizens than Muslim terrorists. His only aim is to turn American into a Socialist, Marxist nation so that everyone will be under the total control of the government.

 

D MORGENSGTERN

4:18 AM ET

March 28, 2010

the poll is incorrect and typical of the NIF tactics.

and the head surveyor was publicly angry with both newspapers.
the correct data can be gotten from the agency itself in Hebrew.
the poll included 511 people. 11% orthodox, 69% other jews, 20% arabs and others.

1. Do you support PMs decision to build in Ramat shlomo?
62% yes. 26% no.

2. do you think that the decision to build will bring more pressure on israel from the Obama Administration?
61% yes. 9% no.

3. was the American reaction blown out of proportion:
60% yes. 20% no.

4. does Obama's criticism aid the peace process:
5% yes, 59% no, 29% doens't affect.

5. Where does Obama stands?
42% Pro arab, 34% neutral, 9% pro israel

6. How happy are you with Netanyahu's performance?
happy - 55%, Unhappy - 21%.

i could go on, but it's tiresome. appart from the fact that there is not an ounce of truth in this "article".

he who want's to know what isrealis think should do better then consult largely radical israeli newspapers. this is not their first embarrasing mistake.
if what they would say would be true, Shimon Peres would be PM 3 times already.
a word about NIF. NIF is perceived by growing part of the population as a radical movement that funnels money to organizations whose interests are anti-israeli.

 

GFMUCCI

12:39 PM ET

April 13, 2010

Jews don't do enough to defend homeland...

Regarding "aparthied colored glasses: Those who don't like the alleged "aparthied colered glasses should really find a location that would make them happier and less prone to bit--ing. If "aparthied" is a real problem, Israel should take measures to eliminate it by expelling the those pesky troublemakers.

On Obama: Israeli's apparently are clueless to exactly how anti-Semitic and pro-Islam Obama really is. Their lack of understanding is a real shame.

The terrible bias of many of the survey questions and methodology erodes the surveys legitimacy. I'll use one question in particular as an example:
""Will the current Netanyahu government attack Iran?" Yes-24 percent; No-65 percent.

"Attacking Iran" is not a legitimate object. A more objective, to the point question would have been: "Will the current Netanyahu government remove Iran's nuclear capability by force?" This is very different from "attacking Iran."

There must be a quite liberal, indifferent to Israel, media in Israel, along with the media's readership. In fact, it appears the same sort of "hate Israel first" folks live in Israel as "hate America first" folks live in the US.

 

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