Life rarely gives you second chances. But if handled deftly, the Arab Peace Initiative (API), discussed yesterday at a Blair House meeting between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and an assembled group of Arab foreign ministers, could help form the basis of a serious reconstituted peace process. The delegation came to Washington under the guise of the Arab Peace Initiative Follow-up Committee -- a group charged with securing acceptance of the API by Israel and others.   

The API was proposed over a decade ago by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah at a 2002 Arab League Summit in Beirut that convened amidst raging Israeli-Palestinian violence. Endorsed by the Arab League, the proposal offered Israel the prospect of peace, security, and normal relations -- a goal Israel has sought since its independence in 1948. In return, the Arabs called on Israel to agree to a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital. 

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Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi turned Egyptian politics on its head on Thanksgiving eve with his now familiar style of governance: a unilateral, surprise decree, the fourth of its kind since Morsi assumed his position in June. Each of these decisions has proceeded with little to no consultation and, regardless of their intent, each proclamation was notable for carving out further and broader authorities for the executive. The common thread linking these decisions is the majoritarian lens though which the Muslim Brotherhood understands political life and democratic politics -- one which bodes ill at this foundational moment when Egypt is attempting to refashion its social compact and establish a sustainable constitutional and political order.

Morsi's majoritarian mindset is not anti-democratic per se, but depends upon a distinctive conception of winner-takes-all politics and the denigration of political opposition. Winning elections, by this perspective, entitles the victors to govern unchecked by the concerns of the losers. This chronic overreach has cemented the divide between Islamists and non-Islamists and heightened suspicions of the Brotherhood's ultimate intentions.

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The Libyan government has arrested four people suspected to be connected with Tuesday night's attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. The attack resulted in the death of four U.S. diplomats. U.S. and Libyan officials continue to search for others who might have been involved, and are  investigating the militant fundamentalist group Ansar al Sharia. New information has led U.S. officials to doubt initial assessments that the attack was planned in advance, but rather an opportunistic assault. Authorities released the names of the two people killed in addition to Ambassador Christopher Stevens and Sean Smith. They are Tyrone S. Woods and Glen A. Doherty, both former Navy Seals. Meanwhile, four people were reported killed and an estimated 34 injured in clashes between protesters and police near the U.S. embassy in Yemen's capital Sanaa on Thursday. In Iran, protests outside the Swiss embassy, which handles U.S. interests,  lasted for about two hours and peacefully dispersed. Protests continued in Cairo where demonstrators clashed with Egyptian police, injuring 224 people between the U.S. embassy and Tahrir Square. U.S. President Barack Obama called for Egypt to honor its commitments to protect U.S. diplomats and facilities. Relations between the United States and Egypt have become increasingly tense, and Obama in an interview with Telemundo, "I don't think that we would consider [Egypt] an ally, but we don't consider them an enemy." The United States has put embassies across the Arab world on high alert bracing for demonstrations expected after Friday prayers.

Syria

U.N. and Arab League envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi arrived in Damascus Thursday saying the conflict is worsening. He stated, "We came to Syria to consult with our Syrian brothers. There is a crisis in Syria, and I believe it is getting worse." Brahimi is set to meet with President Bashar al-Assad and opposition representatives on Friday. He is scheduled to meet with a delegation from the opposition National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change (NCCDC), a group of leftists, Kurds, and independent political activists. Meanwhile, heavy clashes were reported in the western and southern regions of Aleppo and outside Damascus. According to an activist, "There is a fresh campaign on the eastern parts of Damascus." Residents of the southern district of Tadamon said the opposition Free Syria Army (FSA) has pulled out of the neighborhood. One resident said, "Any house that had any link to the Free Syrian Army has been destroyed." And residents said the army threatened to destroy the remaining houses if the FSA is allowed to reenter. Increased sectarian violence is being reported between Shiite and Sunni communities, and the conflict is causing regional divisions along sectarian lines.

Headlines  

• The United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency has passed a resolution rebuking Iran for its nuclear development program.
• Pope Benedict XVI arrived in Lebanon's capital Beirut on Friday amid regional unrest.
• Turkish forces have reportedly killed 75 Kurdish militants in weeklong clashes along the Iraqi and Iranian borders in Hakkari province.
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With the fighting in Syria escalating into Damascus, there is still no consensus among U.N. Security Council members to push for sanctions or military intervention (as they did for Libya).  But the results of a new survey by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, published exclusively today on ForeignPolicy.com, reveals a general consensus among Americans of what they are and are not willing to do to help end the bloodshed in Syria.  A sizable majority of those polled support a U.S. role in enforcing sanctions and a no-fly zone in Syria (though a larger majority opposes bombing Syrian air defenses, which could be a prerequisite step to enforcing a no-fly zone). At the same time, overwhelming majorities oppose more forceful measures such as arming the Syrian opposition or sending troops into Syria.

The Chicago Council Survey, fielded May 25 through June 8, asked over 1,800 Americans about a series of diplomatic and military options the United States could pursue along with its allies to stem the fighting in Syria. It found that the American public was generally ready to support limited measures, even before the fighting extended toward Damascus, but had little appetite for more direct actions. Six out of ten said they supported increasing economic and diplomatic sanctions against the Syrian regime (63 percent), and nearly as many said they would support enforcing a no-fly zone over Syria (58 percent). Beyond these options, there is limited support for sending arms and supplies to anti-government groups in Syria (27 percent; 67 percent oppose), bombing Syrian air defenses (22 percent; 72 percent oppose), or sending troops into Syria (14 percent; 81 percent oppose).

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Early polling shows Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi will face off with former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq for presidential election run-offs scheduled for June 16 and 17. While official results are not expect to be released by the electoral commission until May 27, the Muslim Brotherhood's estimate was reported after 90 percent of the country's votes were tallied. Over 50 percent of the 50 million eligible voters were estimated to have turned out to vote. The two days of the first round of polling were considered to be mostly calm with minor violations reported by election monitors, Observers Without Borders. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised the "historic" election saying, "We will continue to stand with the Egyptian people." If early reports are correct, the election will be a contest between two of the field's most polarizing candidates. Morsi, who was the Brotherhood's selection after their preferred candidate, Khairat el Shater, was disqualified, has appealed to Islamists, but is criticized as being nothing more than a new face on Shater's platform. At the same time, revolutionaries fear that Shafiq symbolizes a return to the old regime. But, he is supported by Coptic Christians and secularists.

Syria

As the United Nations' observer mission has neared its full deployment of 300 monitors, international envoy Kofi Annan is preparing to travel to Syria to meet with the government to discuss the failing peace plan. The mission's mandate is for 90 days and is set to expire in July. However, demonstrations and extensive violence continue throughout the country. Protesters took to the streets after Friday prayers in Damascus, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Deir el-Zour. According to the activist Local Coordination Committees, about 40 civilians were killed across Syria Thursday, and eight more on Friday. Prominent opposition member, Brigadier General Aqil Hashem, spoke to Britain's House of Commons Thursday, appealing for an international intervention, in the form of targeted air strikes, to halt the fighting in Syria. His comments, however, highlighted the increasing divisions within the opposition. Meanwhile, Syria's diplomatic mission in New York has been prevented from opening a bank account, and has complained that the United States, as the host country of the United Nations, is adopting "discriminatory" practices.

Headlines

• After failure to reach a deal in two days of negotiations in Baghdad, a third round of nuclear talks with Iran are scheduled for June 18 and 19 in Moscow.
• A suicide car bombing, preceded by a gunfight outside of a police station in the central Turkish town of Pinarbasi, has killed two police officers and wounded 16 people.
• Yemen's army has claimed to have killed 35 al Qaeda linked militants in the south, and took control of Wadi Banaa Arab, near the al Qaeda stronghold of Jaar.
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FIFA, the international federation for world soccer, is poised to make a decision in a few days that will impact the lives of hundreds of thousands of young Muslim women -- whether or not to overturn the current ban on the hijab, or headscarf. Matters actually came to a head last summer, in June 2011, when the entire Iranian women's soccer team was prevented from playing in Olympic qualifying matches held in Jordan. The ouster of an entire national team, minutes before a key international match, led to a resurgent global debate on the relations between the hijab, sports, and international politics. Today, however, the winds of change seem to be blowing back in the other direction, as activists, athletes, and allies -- Muslim and non-Muslim -- appear to have met every FIFA objection and will arrive at the March 3 London meeting of the International Football Association Board (IFAB) with a proposal to lift the ban and allow thousands of women an opportunity that is blocked under current rules.

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A team of five United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors arrived in Tehran a day after Iran cut off oil exports to Britain and France. A spokesman from Iran's Oil Ministry, Ali Reza Nikad-Rahbar, said the move was part of punitive measures that will be employed against "hostile" European countries that have complied with sanctions. European countries make up about 18 percent of imports of Iranian crude oil, and have collectively agreed to an oil embargo set to begin in the summer. The trip for the team of U.N. inspectors has been the second in a month during efforts to revive talks that collapsed in Istanbul a year ago. They come at a time of heightened tensions over concerns that Iran's nuclear program, which the country maintains is for peaceful purposes, is instead aimed at nuclear weapons development. Last week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made an appearance on state television announcing progress in the program, increasing the amount of centrifuges and inserting nationally made fuel rods. Meanwhile, the United States has initiated escalating sanctions and not ruled out a military strike on Iran if concerns over the nuclear program are not allayed. Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said "In these negotiations we are looking for a way out of Iran's current nuclear issues so that both sides win."

Headlines  

• Iranian warships docked at a Syrian port reportedly for joint maritime training. Meanwhile, two judicial officials were assassinated in the northwestern province of Idlib.
• A suicide bomber killed 18 Iraqi police officers and recruits and injured 27 outside a Baghdad police academy.
• After having initially denied support, declining economic conditions have forced the Egyptian transitional government to accept an IMF loan.
• A bomb exploded at a polling station in Yemen's port city of Aden a day before presidential elections are slated to officially transfer power from Ali Abdullah Saleh to Vice President Hadi.
• There was low turnout for the February 20 movement's anniversary marking Morocco's uprising which spurred constitutional reform and advanced elections.

Arguments & Analysis

'Fighting to remain relevant? The PKK in 2012' (Franco Galdini, Open Democracy)

"As the revolutionary upheavals are set to continue well into 2012, the question of future alternatives emerging in the Kurdish mainstream, especially from the youth, becomes crucial. In other words, if both the traditional (armed) and new (political) axes of the struggle are increasingly perceived as either irrelevant or too weak, respectively, to enforce a change of policy by the Turkish state, the possibility of a Kurdish (youth-led) movement taking matters in their own hands on the recent example of several countries around the region becomes very real." 

'Muslim Brothers and Egypt's economy' (Mohamed El Dahshan, The Daily Star)

"How the Brotherhood's budget turns out depends on how parliamentary alliances coalesce. Existing tensions between liberal and Islamist parties will be replaced by common interests; the Brotherhood will find good allies in economic policy in smaller pro-market parties across the aisle. The end result will be a stumbling, learn-as-you-go pragmatic pro-market economic policy with a strong welfare component. Deregulation will slow. Relations with international donors won't change. In the end, the Brotherhood's economic policy may represent little change from the past two decades, as Egypt's economic policy maintained massive subsidization while conducting, or at least promising, pro-business reforms."

'Empty talk on Tahrir Square' (Tim Sebastian, New York Times)

"Parliament's unwillingness to confront the generals is understandable. After all, they still have higher than 80 percent approval ratings across the country -- and they're still making the key decisions. But it does mean that the new politicians' first days at school risk being defined by what they won't do, rather than what they will. A recent survey of the assembly's political parties, conducted by Amnesty International, found, for instance, a depressingly patchy response to the question of women's rights and very little appetite to campaign for female equality. More alarming, though, is the re-emergence of fear. Once again, I was told, Egyptians are starting to look over their shoulder to see who might be listening, to be careful what they say on the phone, to begin considering all over again who they can and cannot trust. "The intelligence services are extremely active," says a well-known commentator."

--Tom Kutsch & Mary Casey

Bahraini activists and security forces have clashed as protesters attempted to return to the site of Manama's Pearl Roundabout, on the anniversary of last year's pro-democracy demonstrations. Beginning on February 14, 2011, mainly Shiite activists camped on the symbolic monument for a month before a siege razed tents and destroyed the Pearl Roundabout. Security forces have fired tear gas and were reported to have used stun grenades and shotguns to disburse protesters, some of whom have reportedly retaliated with Molotov cocktails. The government has blamed Bahrain's lead Shiite group, Al Wefaq, for instigating violence as the government-approved rally turned into a riot as activists broke off in an attempt to reoccupy the Pearl Roundabout. Up to 3,000 people have been detained since last year's uprisings and have been subject to extreme sentences and unfair trials, according to activists. Additionally, over 4,000 people have lost their jobs after being accused of anti-government activity. The Bahraini opposition and human rights groups say little has changed despite government promises and are calling for democratic reform. King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa addressed the country on the eve of the anniversary claiming a commitment to the "modernization process" and said he had pardoned 291 prisoners. However, none of those released included activists arrested in last year's revolt.

Headlines  

• Government attacks continued on multiple fronts across Syria as the U.N. Human Rights chief chastised the Security Council for failing to take steps to end the violence. 
• Indian and Georgian authorities are investigating yesterday's bombing and bombing attempt targeting Israeli diplomats for which Israel has blamed Iran and Hezbollah. 
• A man thought to be Iranian suffered severe injuries in an attempt to throw a bomb at police in Thailand's capital of Bangkok a month after the U.S. embassy warned of attacks.
• A Yemeni man was killed as he was planting a bomb in an election booth a week before scheduled polling for presidential elections aimed to officially replace Ali Abudullah Saleh.

Arguments & Analysis

'Yemen: Can AQAP mount an insurgency?' (Gabriel Koehler-Derrick, The Arabist)

"Al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula has thus far proven successful in Yemen thanks to a cadre of leaders who have imposed unusual discipline on the group, balancing competing constituents while pursuing local, regional, and more recently international agendas.  However, the principles that help to explain AQAP's success as a small, leader-centric group will not predispose them for success in insurgency.  Disciplining a tightly bound group focused on terrorist attacks and assassinations is one thing; keeping a hodgepodge of "insurgents" in check and on message is another. A larger AQAP means a broader movement, one less under the direct control of the Yemeni leaders who have guided the organization for more than five years."

'One year later, Bahrain slow to reform' (Gregg Carlstrom, Al Jazeera English)

"King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa quickly announced a few changes. He enlisted the help of John Timoney, a former police chief in the United States, and John Yates, a former assistant commissioner with the Metropolitan Police in the United Kingdom. And he issued a royal decree barring the National Security Agency, responsible for dozens of unlawful detentions last year, from carrying out arrests. Yet residents of many Bahraini villages say the abuses have continued. Police continue to raid homes in the dead of night; one unit last week even fired a tear gas canister into the house of Ali Salman, the leader of Al Wefaq. Two people have died under mysterious circumstances in police custody over the past month. Opposition activists say they were tortured."

'The agony of Nabeel Rajab' (Karen Leigh, The Atlantic)

"Many Bahrainis follow his example of peaceful protest and cyber activism. Fearing a media blackout, they bombard foreign rights workers and journalists with Tweets and emails about the violence they say is being perpetrated almost daily in Shi'a neighborhoods like Sitra, the country's hotbed of revolution, and to protesters serving what they say are unjust sentences..."We don't get as much coverage as Syria or Libya, but with our limited resources we have done our best," Rajab says. Bahrainis are some of the most active Arab protesters on social media. In a sense, they provide much of their own coverage."

--Tom Kutsch & Mary Casey

Syria signs Arab League deal to allow observer mission

Syria signed an Arab League initiative which will allow outside Arab monitors and which aims to end the violent nine-month crackdown on protests. The agreement was signed after the Arab League accepted various conditions, most significantly agreeing to lift recently imposed sanctions. According to the deal, in addition to allowing for monitors, Syria must withdraw troops from towns and villages, free thousands of political prisoners, and begin an Arab League-mediated dialogue with the opposition. Russia, after proposing a peace initiative to the U.N. Security Council last week, asked Syria to sign the deal, according to Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem, who said, "Syria listened to the advice." Syria had resisted signing the Arab League's deal for weeks, making sure that it protected Syria's sovereignty, according to Muallem. He said that the country welcomes the observers, believing that their presence will vindicate the government's stance that protests have not been predominantly peaceful. He asserted, "There are many countries in the world who don't wish to admit the presence of terrorist armed groups in Syria," continuing, "They will come and see that they are present." An advance team of security, legal, and administrative observers will be sent into Syria within the next three days and will be followed by teams including human rights experts.

Headlines  

• An estimated 13 people have been killed and hundreds injured in the fourth day of clashes with security forces in Cairo, overshadowing the country's second round of elections.
• Beginning at dawn on Sunday, the last U.S. convoy including 110 vehicles and 500 troops departed from Iraq, officially ending the nearly nine-year war.
• Israel released 550 Palestinian prisoners in the second stage of the exchange with Hamas that returned Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
• Saudi Arabian billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal has invested a $300 million "strategic stake" in Twitter
• The United Nations reported that nearly four million people in Yemen will suffer in 2012 as malnutrition rates hit levels comparable to Somalia.
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Egyptian-Americans let out a collective sigh of relief this week. After months of governmental handwringing, the Egyptian High Elections Commission finally confirmed that Egyptians abroad will be able to exercise their right to vote in upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. Egyptian expatriates were permitted to begin registering yesterday on the Commission's website. Since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian-Americans have struggled to find their place in the new Egypt. But their participation in Egypt's first real elections will prove what they already knew -- that they too are Egyptians and they too will help chart Egypt's new course.

Like their fellow Egyptians in Tahrir Square, Egyptian-Americans rose up and demanded the fall of the regime on January 25. But unlike their compatriots in Tahrir, Egyptian-Americans also had to prove -- to others but more importantly to themselves -- that their demands were just as legitimate, that their voice was just as authentic.

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After six months of ongoing peaceful protests, a fracturing of the armed forces, and ongoing violence in numerous parts of the country, Yemenis face increasingly dire conditions each day. And yet they keep showing up. While non-democratic (nay, anti-democratic) neighbors fitfully engage in mediation efforts while also giving refuge to President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the U.S. continues to interpret the crisis through the lens of counterterrorism. Concerned about the risk of an emboldened al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the U.S. has offered tepid support for the aspirations of the country's majority, pinned its hopes on an atavistic autocrat, and opted to increase controversial drone attacks in some of the most unstable parts of the country. 

This strategy is mistaken. It presupposes a narrow understanding of U.S. interests centered on counterterrorism, which I and others have argued against elsewhere. But it also assumes that working against the revolutionary aspirations of millions of Yemenis is, in fact, the best way to counter the threat of AQAP. Supporting the development of a democratically-constituted Yemen and offering support to its leaders as they build legitimate state institutions makes more sense. This Friday, the Organizing Committee of the Revolution, which is advocating for Saleh's immediate transfer of powers and the formation of a transitional council, has issued a call for a march in pursuit of a "Civil State." Yemenis from across ideological, occupational, generational, and class lines will gather around the country to demand a state accountable to its rights-bearing citizens. It will be the twenty-fifth Friday on which they have done so, camped out in the squares for the weeks in between.

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Historical dates often emerge by sheer coincidence. In 2009, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad formulated an operational goal for his tenure: by 2011 he wanted to build institutions that would justify the proclamation of a Palestinian state. This would not just have symbolic value, as PLO Chairman Yasir Arafat's statement in 1988, but would carry practical implications. Fayyad's efforts have commanded international admiration. The West Bank is indeed run in a way that meets many criteria for successful statehood. As opposed to the past, funds are used responsibly and accounting standards are transparent. The security forces -- originally trained by U.S. Lieutenant General Keith Dayton -- are remarkably effective. Both the Palestinian population and the Israel Defense Forces rely on them more than ever. Hence, September 2011 began to crystallize as a realistic date for the founding of a Palestinian state.

Fayyad's 2011 deadline for the declaration of Palestinian statehood had acquired enormous importance, even though Fayyad never connected it to the bid for U.N. recognition. It has provided Palestinians with a political horizon and a strong motivation to try the route of peaceful resistance and reliance on the international community's support for the new state. The idea of turning to the U.N. for recognition of Palestine seems not to have been a long-term strategy; it emerged as an option faute de mieux, in the absence of negotiations, and without reasonable hope that Netanyahu has the will or the mandate for a meaningful Israeli compromise.

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This week, in response to the highly publicized murder of a Jewish family in the West Bank settlement of Itamar, a group of 27 U.S. senators signed a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urging her to press Palestinian leaders to end "incitement directed against Jews and Israel within the Palestinian media, mosques, and schools." According to the letter, the grisly killings in Itamar (for which no suspects, Palestinian or otherwise, have been identified), "is a sobering reminder that words matter, and that Palestinian incitement against Jews and Israel can lead to violence and terror."

As evidence for the allegation of pervasive anti-Jewish incitement in Palestinian society, the letter cites a recent, official ceremony honoring Delal Mughrabi, a perpetrator of the 1978 coastal road massacre in Israel, as well as a payment of financial compensation made by the Palestinian Authority to the family of a deceased terror suspect.

Such actions are deserving of condemnation. But if it is indeed the case that "words matter" -and if the elimination of violent and dehumanizing rhetoric is, as the letter says, "critical to establishing the conditions [for] a secure and lasting peace"-then what can explain the senators' silence on the veritable carnival of hate and racist incitement against Arabs and Palestinians that has lately engulfed Israeli society?

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Since 1979 the United States has spent nearly $2 billion annually on aid to Egypt.  Approximately two-thirds has been spent on "foster[ing] a well-trained, modern Egyptian military," with the purpose of ensuring stability in the country and in the region.  The remainder of the aid has funded development and economic aid programs targeting civil society development, political party training, and educational exchanges, among other aims.  In light of the Egyptian people's ongoing and forceful demonstrations for the removal of President Hosni Mubarak and their calls for a free and democratic political order, the U.S. should shift its aid distribution so that development aid is on par with funding to the military.

President Obama has already called for political change in Egypt leading to more freedom, opportunity and justice for the Egyptian people.  In remarks on February 1, the President went so far as to press for an immediate and "orderly transition," leading to free and fair elections rooted in democratic principles. It is now time to begin putting in place the policies that support these words.

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