According to an Egyptian official, leaders of the Palestinian rival groups Hamas and Fatah agreed to implement a unity deal in talks in Cairo on Wednesday. Palestinian Authority President and Fatah head Mahmoud Abbas and exiled Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal met separately with Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and later met directly for the first time in over a year. Hamas politburo member Izzat al-Rishq said, "The two parties agreed to call on all Palestinian factions to implement the reconciliation agreement." The unity agreement, brokered by Egypt, was signed in May 2011, but the main provisions have not been enacted. Violence exploded between the rival nationalist groups in June 2007 when Hamas forces took control of Gaza a year after an unrecognized landslide victory in parliamentary elections. The factions have remained at odds over the recognition of Israel, use of violence, and arrests of members. A meeting for the groups to establish a timeline for implementation of the agreement is reportedly scheduled for the first week of February.

Syria

NATO has reported that the Syrian military fired a ballistic missile on Wednesday, the third in recent days fired in the direction of Aleppo and Idlib. The targets appeared to be strategic road intersections and military bases seized by opposition forces. A NATO official condemned the missile launches saying, "The use of such indiscriminate weapons shows utter disregard for the lives of the Syrian people." While the Syrian government has denied the use of ballistic missiles, their use could be seen as further justification for NATO Patriot missile batteries put in place to defend the Turkish border. The U.S. batteries could be operational within days, however the Dutch and German systems may not be ready for weeks. Meanwhile, Syria's pro-regime media has criticized comments made by U.N. and Arab League envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi on Wednesday in which he questioned President Bashar al-Assad's commitment to a political transition and suggested he resign. British Foreign Minister William Hague said he is unsure if Brahimi will succeed in brokering an end to violence in Syria and he wants Britain to have the flexibility to arm opposition fighters if conditions continue to deteriorate. Fighting has continued between opposition fighters and government forces over the Taftanaz air base in northern Idlib province into Thursday with reports of regime air strikes. Additionally, air strikes were reported on opposition strongholds around Damascus.

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• Three Kurdish activists, possibly including a founding member of the PKK, were shot dead in Paris late Wednesday in what could be an effort to derail recent peace talks.
• A car exploded in Tel Aviv on Thursday in an apparent mob-linked assassination attempt on Nissim Alperon, who was not injured.
• Saudi Arabia executed Rizana Nafeek, a Sri Lankan maid accused of killing a baby in her care, who was convicted as a minor without having access to a lawyer. 
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Since the beginning of the Syrian Revolution in March 2011, the Assad regime has transformed into a ruthless militia fighting a desperate battle against the Syrian people. The regime hasn't just murdered thousands of Syrians, but also wasted their wealth and, most significantly, destroyed the very fabric of Syrian society. The longer Assad stays in power, the harder and more painful the transitional period will be. Before it is too late, Syrians must form, and the international community must support, a Syrian transitional government based on liberated Syrian soil.

The actions of the Syrian government have forced the country into a hateful sectarian conflict and a horrifying civil war. The regime (or militia) has repeatedly violated the Geneva conventions and failed to follow any rules of war. For instance, live bullets have claimed the lives of some of Syria's finest young non-violent activists, such as Ghayth Matar, Tamer al-Sharey, and Hamzeh al-Khatib. Additionally, the regime has engaged in the monstrous and inhuman practice of targeting hospitals and bread lines. However, the Syrian people have steadfastly endured this horrible struggle for almost two years not only to protect their movement and determination, but also, and more importantly, to preserve their solidarity against a policy whose sole purpose is to break them apart.

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Iran's oil minister, Rostam Qasemi, admitted for the first time on Monday that petroleum exports and sales had dropped by 40 percent in the past nine months because of Western sanctions. Qasemi has consistently denied Iran was having problems selling its oil, its largest source of revenue. Additionally, according to Gholam Reza Kateb, the head of the parliament's budget committee, the decline in oil sales and banking sanctions have caused a 45 percent drop in revenue. OPEC and the International Energy Agency have reported that Iranian crude exports have fallen from 2.4 million barrels a day at the end of 2011 to about a million barrels a day at the end of 2012. Consequently, soaring inflation has caused the value of Iran's currency, the rial, to fall by over 80 percent since 2011. Also on Monday, Iran's oil ministry said it will halt the sale of jet fuel to the country's indebted airlines unless they pay cash, causing several carriers to cancel flights. Western countries have imposed severe sanctions on Iran over its disputed nuclear program, which it maintains is for peaceful purposes. Last week, U.S. President Barack Obama broadened sanctions on Iranian industries to include all energy, shipping, and shipbuilding organizations and restricted outlets for barter transactions.

Syria

Syria mixed chemicals at two storage sites at the end of November 2012 and filled dozens of bombs, likely with sarin nerve gas, and loaded them onto vehicles near air bases according to anonymous U.S. military, intelligence, and diplomatic officials. A public warning by President Obama, and private messages from Russia, Iraq, Turkey, and possibly Jordan coerced Syria to stop the chemical and bomb preparation. However, officials say the weapons are still in storage near Syrian air bases, and could be deployed in between two and six hours for use by President Bashar al-Assad. Meanwhile, on Tuesday the United Nations' World Food Program (WFP) said it is unable to provide assistance to 1 million Syrians who are going hungry due to the 22-month-long conflict. According to spokeswoman Elisabeth Byrs, the agency aims to help 1.5 million of the 2.5 million Syrians in need. It is not able to reach all the people requiring help because of continued fighting and the lack of access to the port of Tartus, where it had to remove its staff. The program also had to pull its staff from offices in Homs, Aleppo, and Qamisly. Additionally, the U.N. refugee agency said the number of refugees fleeing the fighting increased by nearly 100,000 in the past month. On Tuesday, a riot reportedly broke out in the Zaatari Syrian refugee camp in Jordan. Refugees attacked aid workers after the first winter storm in the camp caused torrential rains and winds that swept away tents. Nearly 50,000 people are housed in the Zaatari camp and they are becoming increasingly frustrated with conditions that one person called "worse than living in Syria."

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• Libya's main liberal coalition, the Liberal National Forces Alliance, has withdrawn from the national assembly over a deadlock in drafting the constitution.
• Twelve Kurdish militants and a Turkish soldier were killed in clashes along the Turkish border with Iraq.
• Four people have been reported dead and 55 injured in one of the worst storms Lebanon has seen in 25 years. 
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Bahrain's highest appeals court has upheld sentences for 13 activists for their roles in the February 2011 anti-government protests. The sentences, originally delivered by a military court in June 2011, and upheld in an appeals court in September 2012, range from five years to life imprisonment. One of the eight activists receiving life sentences (25 years in Bahrain) was opposition leader Abdulhadi al-Khawaja, who ended a 110-day hunger strike last June in protest of the ruling. This decision will be final, with no further venues for the activists to get the verdicts overturned. Twenty people were originally tried, however seven were tried in absentia and have left the country or remain in hiding. One of the main charges against the activists was "forming a terrorist group with intent to overthrow the system of government." However, the activists maintained they were only seeking democratic reform in Bahrain. Opposition and human rights groups have condemned the sentences. The United States was pushing for acquittals in efforts to avoid further political unrest in the Gulf country in which the U.S. Fifth Fleet is based. An estimated 60 people have died in unrest in Bahrain since February 2011.

Syria

The Syrian opposition and western countries have rejected a peace plan proposed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In his first televised speech since June 2012, Assad remained defiant saying his military would continue to fight rebels, deemed as foreign funded "terrorists." He insisted he will not step down, but presented his peace plan including reforms that would replace the cabinet and constitution. He called for a national dialogue, but maintained he would not negotiate with people with "terrorist" ideas. He condemned opponents as "enemies of God and puppets of the West." The United States rejected Assad's address as "yet another attempt by the regime to cling to power." U.S. State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said Assad's peace initiative "is detached from reality." Foreign ministers from Turkey, Britain, and the European Union maintained their positions that Assad must resign and Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi said he would endorse an International Criminal Court tribunal against Assad for war crimes. The Syrian National Coalition said Assad has made negotiations impossible by ruling out talks with the rebels. Only Syrian ally Iran backed Assad's plan rejecting "foreign interference." Meanwhile, according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, clashes continued around the capital of Damascus, in the northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo, and on the road connecting Damascus to Aleppo. Violence was reported in the district of Arqaba, just three miles from the Damascus Opera House, from which Assad addressed regime loyalists.

Headlines  

• Amid increased economic concerns, President Mohamed Morsi replaced Egypt's finance and interior ministers a day ahead of a meeting with the IMF over a $4.8 billion loan.
• Israel announced it is building a fence along the border with Syria, according to Prime Minister Netanyahu to "defend this border against both infiltration and terrorism."
• Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has ordered "State of Palestine" to be used on public documents which were previously stamped with "Palestinian Authority." 
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An estimated 32 Shiite pilgrims were killed in bombings in Iraq on Thursday. One of the bombs killed up to 28 people and wounded 60 others close to a bus stop in the town of Musayyib. The bombings were seemingly targeting pilgrims returning from Karbala at the end of a Shiite festival of Arbaeen. Additionally, a roadside bomb in southeast Baghdad exploded, killing four people and wounding 15 in a passing minibus carrying Shiite pilgrims. No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks. Sectarian tensions have increased in Iraq in the past weeks as Sunnis protest against the Shiite dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Demonstrators are accusing Maliki of attempting to monopolize power and marginalize Sunni political representatives before provincial elections scheduled for spring. Protests were sparked by a raid last month on the home and office of Sunni Finance Minister Rafie al-Issawi, and the arrest of 10 bodyguards. In attempts to quell protests, the Iraqi government released 11 female prisoners and two teenagers on Thursday.

Syria

A car bombing killed at least 11 people and injured 40 at a crowded petrol station in the Barzeh al-Balad district of Damascus on Thursday. The bombing hit as people were waiting in line for fuel, which has been increasingly scarce since the uprisings began in Syria in March 2011. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, which was the second on a petrol station in Damascus this week. Opposition forces have continued fighting for a third day for the Taftanaz air base, on the road linking Damascus to Aleppo, which is reportedly still under the control of government forces. Meanwhile, U.S. troops arrived in Turkey in part of a NATO mission to protect the border with Syria. The troops will man the recently deployed NATO Patriot missile batteries. In Lebanon, Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah called for Lebanon to take a more active role in working toward a political solution to the conflict in Syria. Additionally, he urged the government to open up its border to Syrian refugees. Lebanon said it will keep the border open, but will request additional aid from Arab states and the international community.

Headlines  

• Hamas has allowed the first Fatah rally in Gaza since 2007, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas predicted unification of the two movements.
• Gunmen have abducted the chief of Benghazi's criminal investigations unit, Captian Abdel-Salam al-Mahdawi, who took the position after the former police chief was killed in November.
• Ibrahim al-Dharahi, holding Israeli and Yemeni identity cards, has been charged with spying for Israel after his arrest three weeks ago in the city of Taiz. 
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According to a United Nations study, more than 60,000 people have been killed since Syria's uprising began in March 2011. The previous estimate by the British based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights was 45,000. United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said, "The number of causalities is much higher than we expected, and is truly shocking." The UN estimate includes Syrian soldiers, opposition fighters, or civilians. Adding to the death toll Wednesday was a government strike on a petrol station in the opposition held Damascus suburb of Muleiha. At least 30 civilians were incinerated while waiting in line for the rare chance to fill up their tanks. Activists said rockets were fired at the petrol station from a nearby Syrian air base. Other government strikes were reported in several Damascus suburbs as well as in Homs and Hama. Also on Wednesday, the family of James Foley, an American freelance reporter, announced that he has been missing since he was abducted on November 22 in northwest Syria. Meanwhile, fighting continued into Thursday at Taftanaz air base in the northwestern Idlib province as well as at the Aleppo international airport. However, unverified reports said Syrian forces pushed the opposition fighters out of Taftanaz.

Headlines  

• Qatari owned Al Jazeera has bought Al Gore's Current TV, valued at over $500 million, which it plans to replace with an Al Jazeera America news channel. However, the channel was swiftly dropped by Time Warner Cable, Inc..
• Turkish police detained ex-army chief, Ismail Hakki Karadayi, over a 1997 coup against the country's Islamist led government, in what some government opponents see as a "witch hunt."
• After two years and spending approximately $416 million, Israel has completed most of its 140-mile-long fence along the border with Egypt.
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In recent years Kuwait seems to have descended into a never-ending succession of elections, government reshufflings, protests, and grillings of ministers. This often baffles outside observers, and in Kuwait it gives rise to a sense of chronic crisis and dysfunction. Up until recently, however, it has also been possible to make out an underlying story in Kuwaiti politics, a story of the rise of the political influence of the National Assembly. Thus in 2006 the opposition forced through an electoral redistricting over the opposition of the government; in 2009 the prime minister submitted to a parliamentary vote of confidence for the first time in Kuwaiti history; in late 2011 the opposition in the National Assembly forced out the sitting prime minister; in February, following a major bribery scandal implicating pro-government members of parliament (MPs), the opposition won a resounding 34 seat majority in the 50 member National Assembly. Not long ago, few Kuwaitis took seriously the idea of a "popular government" with a prime minister from outside the family; today many expect that it will happen, with the main question being how long it will take.

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The worsening violence and repression in Syria has left many analysts and policymakers in the United States and other western countries scrambling to think of ways our governments could help end the bloodshed and support those seeking to dislodge the Assad regime. The desperate desire to "do something" has led a growing number of people to advocate for increased military aid to armed insurgents or even direct military intervention, as the French government has said it will consider doing unilaterally.

While understandable, to support the armed opposition would likely exacerbate the Syrian people's suffering and appear to validate the tragic miscalculation by parts of the Syrian opposition to supplant their bold and impressive nonviolent civil insurrection with an armed insurgency.

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The view that the civil war in Syria is entering into a new phase, perhaps its final one, is rapidly gaining ground. Having successfully resisting the Assad regime's onslaught, the rebels have improved their military efficacy. They have seized significant military targets, have made significant progress toward centralizing their command structure, and are consolidating their stronghold over substantial parts of the country. More and better weapons are coming their way, and the war appears poised to come to Damascus, for what could shape up into the conflict's most decisive battle. But are we really witnessing the beginning of the end? Or is this just another phase in what may prove to be an endless Afghan-style quagmire?

To answer this question, we should look to Libya rather than Afghanistan. NATO's intervention, following U.N. Resolution 1973, made all the difference in this conflict: by strengthening the rebels' hand and severely weakening Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces, it turned military defeat into rapid victory, against all prognostications of protracted war. However, to understand how aerial bombing could make such a tremendous difference in Libya, especially when massive U.S. firepower has failed to turn the war in Afghanistan, we must probe deeper.

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On Saturday, Egyptians voted in a national referendum on the country's new constitution, drafted over the course of six months by a largely Islamist-dominated Constituent Assembly. Opponents of the new document say it restricts freedoms, inflates the powers of the presidency, and makes second-class citizens out of Egypt's Coptic Christian minority. Mohamed ElBaradei, leader of the National Salvation Front (NSF), a loose coalition of opposition figures, including former presidential candidates Hamdeen Sabahi and Amr Moussa, declared that the constitution did not represent a majority of Egyptians, and urged his followers (after some dithering about a boycott) to vote no.

One could be forgiven for thinking that the results of the first phase of the referendum (conducted in 10 of Egypt's most populous governorates, with the remaining 17 to vote on December 22) were a blow to ElBaradei's narrative. The new constitution passed comfortably, with an estimated 57 percent voting yes. The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) has "hailed" the poll, describing the result as a rebuke to "politicians and collaborators who ignored the will of the people."

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Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is declaring a narrow victory in the first round of a polarizing constitutional referendum, while opposition members are complaining of polling violations. Unofficial results from the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party show 56.5 percent approval for the new draft constitution with 43 percent of Egyptians' voting against it. However, voter turnout was low, estimated at between 31 and 33 percent. Egyptian human rights groups reported widespread irregularities at polling stations, including preventing some women and Christians from voting, early closure of some polling centers, and incidences of people misrepresenting themselves as judges. Egypt's main opposition group, the National Salvation Front, has called for massive protests Tuesday against "large scale fraud" in the referendum. There were some instances of violence over the weekend, however, not nearing the degree of clashes leading up to the contentious referendum. Voting was held in Cairo, Alexandria, and eight other Egyptian provinces on Saturday. Results will not be released until after the rest of the country votes on December 22.

Syria

In a rare interview, Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa said that neither the government nor the opposition seeking to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad would win the war in Syria. Sharaa, a Sunni Muslim, has rarely been seen since the uprising began in March 2011, and is not part of the Alawite president's inner circle. Nonetheless, he is the highest official to publically state that Assad will not win. In the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar, Sharaa appealed for a "historic settlement" involving the U.N. Security Council and the formation of a national unity government. Additionally, the foreign ministry of Iran, Assad's closest Ally, has indicated that support for Assad is not unconditional, calling for an end to violence as well as parliamentary and presidential elections. In past weeks the conflict has hit the capital city of Damascus with the opposition making territorial gains in an arc around the capital. In part of a campaign to rid the area of opposition forces, government warplanes bombed the Damascus Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk on Sunday. According to opposition activists, rocket fire killed at least 25 people sheltering in a mosque. The bombings sparked clashes within the camp between opposition fighters including some Palestinians and pro-Assad fighters from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command. Five other attacks were reported in the embattled districts of southern Damascus on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Islamist Tawheed Brigade reported it seized a military installation near the northern city of Aleppo, taking "at least" 100 prisoners. If confirmed, the capture would add to several bases recently overtaken by opposition forces in a set back to the Syrian regime.

Headlines  

• Bombings killed 12 people in ethnically mixed towns in the disputed territory of northern Iraq near the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, a day after 11 people were killed in attacks in Kirkuk.
• Libya has temporarily closed its southern borders and declared emergency law in seven southern regions due to an "upsurge in violence and drug trafficking, and the presence of armed groups."
• Two gunmen on a motorcycle killed Yemeni military intelligence officer Shaker al-Bani on Sunday adding to a number of recent targeted killings.
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Almost two years into the so-called "Arab spring," the record of revolutionary success is mixed. Whereas Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya are engaged in their own post-revolutionary institutional experiments, Syria has descended into civil war, in a sure sign that the outcome will irrevocably undermine the Assad regime. In the midst of all of the revolutionary tumult, monarchical regimes, in the Gulf, Jordan, and Morocco, have for the most part withstood the tempest of the protests. This imposes imminent theoretical and empirical questions about the variation in the outcome of the Arab revolt.

So far, monarchies have been the exception and far from engaging in semantic exercises, this regime-type is indeed an empirical reality pointing to what I call an "advantage" that they possess over republican states in the Middle East and North Africa. After all, the Arab authoritarian states all used, in one way or another, similar strategies from the same menu of autocratic manipulation to deal with their respective uprisings.

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U.S. officials have confirmed that the Syrian government has fired at least six scud missiles this week at opposition held targets in northern Syria, in a possible escalation of the 21-month long conflict. There have been no confirmed casualties from the strikes, and U.S. officials are unclear as to President Bashar al-Assad's intentions for using scuds, which are not known for their precision. Chemical weapons could be loaded onto scud missiles, but there is no evidence they were used for that purpose. U.S. State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said, "As the regime becomes more and more desperate, we see it resorting to increased lethality and more vicious weapons." Additionally, Human Rights Watch accused Syrian forces of dropping incendiary bombs on opposition held residential areas. For the first time, a Russian official admitted Assad may be losing control, signaling a change of course from a major Syrian ally. Russia's special envoy for Middle East affairs, Mikhail Bogdanov, said, "Unfortunately, the victory of the Syrian opposition cannot be ruled out." Opposition forces now control significant territory to the east and southeast of Damascus. Meanwhile, a car bomb in the town of Qatana, about 15 miles southwest of Damascus killed at least 16 people, including women and children. The blast hit near a school in a residential area for Syrian soldiers near several army bases. On Wednesday evening, three bombs hit the interior ministry killing five people, according to Syria's state news agency, SANA. Syrian parliament member Abdullah Qairouz was among those reported killed.

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• I.A.E.A. inspectors are meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran to hold talks over Iran's disputed nuclear program but are unlikely to gain access to Parchin or other suspected military complexes.
• After debating a boycott, Egypt's opposition National Salvation Front has called for supporters to vote "no" on the constitutional referendum, but may still boycott if certain conditions aren't met by Saturday.
• Egyptian blogger Alber Saber, a Coptic Christian but proclaimed atheist, was sentenced to three years in jail on charges of blasphemy after sharing an anti-Islam video in September that sparked mass protest.
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Egyptian expatriates have begun voting in embassies around the world on a referendum pushed by President Mohamed Morsi on a disputed draft constitution. Voting in Egypt will be held over two days, December 15 and 22. At the same time, the Egyptian army is planning to hold "unity" talks with rival factions in Cairo, deeply divided over the referendum. Egypt's Defense Minister General Abdul Fattah el-Sisi invited Morsi, political leaders, and government officials to participate in the dialogue. Opponents of the largely Islamist drafted constitution have called for the referendum to be postponed. However, Morsi has remained steadfast, despite mass protests, that a new constitution must be passed before national elections can be held. Meanwhile, Finance Minster Mumtaz al-Said announced on Tuesday that a $4.8 billion International Monetary Fund loan to Egypt would be delayed for a month due to the political crisis which has dampened Morsi's ability to push through necessary economic reforms. On Sunday, the government issued a variety of new taxes, only to reverse the decision hours later due to backlash from the opposition as well as from within the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt's economy is verging on collapse, and the British-based banking giant HSBC warned that further delay could seriously jeopardize Egypt's recovery.

Syria

U.S. President Barack Obama has formally recognized the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as the "legitimate representative" of the Syrian people, paving the way for greater U.S. support for to the opposition. The United States joins Britain, France, Turkey, and the Gulf states, which recognized the National Coalition shortly after it was formed in November. The announcement came ahead of a meeting of the "Friends of Syria" -- foreign ministers from more than 70 countries gathering in Morocco to discuss the conflict in Syria and options for a political transition. The group includes representatives from many western and Arab countries who have opposed Assad, but excludes Assad's allies Russia and Iran, as well as China, which has joined Russia to block U.N. resolutions on Syria. The "Friends of Syria" also formally recognized the opposition council and called for President Bashar al-Assad's resignation. The group will create a relief fund "to support the Syrian people" but there was no commitment for supplying arms to the opposition fighters, although that was not ruled out for the future. The National Council said recognition is nice, but called for "real support" including humanitarian assistance and military equipment. Meanwhile, between 125 and 300 people were killed in bombings and gunfire in Hama province in the predominantly Alawite village of Aqrab, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. According to opposition activists, the civilians were being held hostage by Shabiha, pro-government militiamen, in a building that was bombed by government warplanes. Activists said the Free Syria Army was making a siege on the building. These accounts cannot be verified as there have been conflicting reports, and the Syrian government has not made any statements on the incident.

Headlines  

• Kuwait's emir named a new cabinet Tuesday, the 11th since 2006 due to a series of political crises, after parliamentary elections were largely boycotted by the opposition.
• Masked gunmen killed senior intelligence officer, Colonel Ahmed Barmadah, outside his home in the southern Yemeni port city of Mukalla on Tuesday. No one has claimed responsibility. 
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