Tunisian opposition politician, Chokri Belaid, was shot in the neck and head and killed Wednesday outside his home in Tunis. Belaid, a prominent secular opponent to the Ennahda-led Islamist government, was one of the leaders of the opposition Popular Front and the general secretary of the Democratic Patriotic Party. No one has taken responsibility for the shooting. Tunisia's Interior Ministry has not yet released any details. News of Belaid's death have sparked large protests outside the interior ministry and in Sid Bouzi, the 2010 epicenter of the Arab uprisings. Tunisian Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali said, "The murder of Belaid is a political assassination and the assassination of the Tunisian revolution."

Syria

Damascus, the capital of Syria, has seen the worst violence in weeks as opposition fighters launched a major offensive. According to an activist, clashes erupted in the districts of Jobar, Zamalka, al-Zablatani, and parts of Qaboun, as well as the ring road. Damascus authorities have closed down the main Abbasid Square and the Fares al-Khoury thoroughfare. Fighting was also reported in the central province of Homs. Blasts in the city of Palmyra drew conflicting reports. According to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, two car bombs exploded near a compound hosing a military intelligence facility and a state security agency. The Observatory reported at least 12 Syrian security forces killed and 20 people wounded, including eight children. Conversely, Syrian state news, SANA, said two suicide car bombings killed and injured an unknown number of people and caused significant damage. The blasts sparked clashes between Syrian government and opposition forces.

Headlines

• A secret U.S. CIA drone base in Saudi Arabia has been revealed, which was established two years ago for operations against al Qaeda members in Yemen.
• Bulgaria's interior minister said two of the people behind the July 18 bombing of an Israeli tourist bus were members of Hezbollah, which may prompt the EU to designate the group as a terrorist organization.
• While visiting Egypt, a man threw a shew at Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was also warned not to interfere with the Gulf states by head Sunni cleric, Grand Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb.
• U.S. President Barack Obama plans to travel to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the spring and will also stop in the West Bank and Jordan.
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Four months before the next presidential election, Iran's conservative establishment is facing a security threat: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Four years ago, a controversial election that reinstated President Ahmadinejad brought millions of Iranians into a face-to-face confrontation with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Now, it is Ahmadinejad who is coming face-to-face with the very man who lifted him out of obscurity and granted him worldwide fame and unparalleled support against all pillars of the Islamic Republic.

During an unprecedented debate at the parliament, which ended in mayhem and the dismissal of the labor minister, Ahmadinejad played a video that implicated the powerful Larijani brothers, two of whom head the judiciary and legislative bodies, of corruption and nepotism. Sunday's impeachment put Ahmadinejad's remaining presidency in danger since many of his allies in the cabinet have had similar fates. At this fiery session that was being broadcast live on state radio, he threatened and eventually played the video to prove a backroom deal that involved the Larijani family. In response, the speaker of the parliament accused Ahmadinejad of mafia type activities and did not allow him to continue. Ahmadinejad angrily left the parliament and moments later 192 out of 272 members of parliament voted in favor of the impeachment. 

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At a press conference following the emergency national dialogue meeting held between members of the opposition and Islamist parties, prominent activist and revolutionary figure, Wael Ghonim said, "The aim of this meeting is not political, but rather to launch an initiative to stop the violence. It's a moral initiative aimed at stopping the bloodshed. That is why the Egyptian April 6 youth movement called on Al-Azhar to hold this meeting and gather together all Egypt's political forces and parties." Despite the positive first step in political reconciliation and Ghonim's encouraging words, an unspoken (yet glaring) gap stands out in this meeting: the absence of government or any other representative of the security apparatus. Although representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) attended the dialogue, no formal authority from the most significant party to the "bloodshed" -- the ministry of interior -- to which Ghonim refers could be found. Sadly, the discrepancy renders the resulting signed document committing the parties to nonviolence moot. 

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Egypt approved a new constitution in a popular referendum on December 22, 2012, by a 63.8 percent vote. The establishment of the new legal framework for the post-Mubarak political order came after weeks of political turmoil, which pitted an Islamist current against a fragmented camp of liberals, leftists, and assorted non-Islamists. This diverse opposition responded to President Mohamed Morsi's fait-accompli with a return to street protests and an angry outcry against the procedures through which the constitution was introduced.

The exchange of reasoned arguments may have been a somewhat naïve aspiration prior to the popular referendum given the poisoned political climate. But it is still striking that the text of the constitutional draft received so little attention in the shrill accusations exchanged by intransigent political opponents. There may yet be time to rectify this failing, however. Representatives of the Morsi government, its opposition, and the judiciary have recently shown signs of willingness to renegotiate bits and pieces of the constitution as well as the by-laws governing the vague provisions in the document. If they do, there will be a wide range of articles to reconsider.

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Gulf states pledged hundreds of millions of dollars in Syria aid as the Syrian government and opposition forces traded blame over mass killings in Aleppo. Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia each pledged $300 million at the International Humanitarian Pledging Conference for Syria in Kuwait on Wednesday. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon addressed the group:"I appeal to all sides, and particularly the Syrian government to stop the killing" and called for more humanitarian aid. The United Nations was seeking $1.5 billion total in pledges and $1 billion for humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees in neighboring countries. The remaining money would go to the 4 million Syrians who are still inside the country and need assistance. Meanwhile, the Syrian regime and opposition forces are accusing one another of what appeared to be summary executions of dozens of people, almost all men in their 20s and 30s, whose bodies were found along a river in the Bustan al-Qasr district of Aleppo. At least 50 bodies were found, but estimates of the number killed reach over 100. Syrian state media, SANA, reported that the victims' families "have identified a number of the killed, stressing that the Nusra Front abducted them because of their refusal to cooperate with this terrorist group." The Local Coordination Committees, an opposition activist group, said 80 bodies were found and blamed the government for the mass killings. About half of the victims identified by Tuesday night were from opposition controlled districts, and some local residents blamed government checkpoints on the opposite side of the river.

Headlines  

• Reversing its decision after the Palestinian status upgrade at the United Nations, Israel said it will transfer tax and customs revenue to the Palestinian Authority to ease the economic crisis, but stressed the decision was "a one-time event."
• The Lebanese army has reported increased activity of Israeli planes over Lebanese air space as Israel has expressed greater concern recently over the loss of government control in Syria. 
• Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has flown to Germany on a trip shortened by Egypt's worsening crisis, but has unveiled a plan to amend several constitutional articles.

Arguments and Analysis

Does Jordan's election change anything? (Julien Barnes-Dacey, The European Council on Foreign Relations)

"Last week's parliamentary elections in Jordan have been widely hailed as a success. Domestic and international observers have praised the integrity of the vote and the turnout figure of 56.5 percent has been taken, by some, as a popular endorsement of King Abdullah's reform track. The Royal Palace is likely enjoying a moment of renewed confidence following a difficult year, particularly as fears about the spread of instability from Syria are also dampening opposition activism. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the King hailed a "wonderful election outcome."

Yet while the general integrity of the electoral process was a positive improvement on past elections, in and of itself, the vote may not actually mean that much. Following two years of low level - but nationwide - protests provoked by a lack of substantial political reform or the tackling of state corruption, the country remains in a precarious position. Much will now depend on the King's willingness to push through bolder measures aimed at cementing a more inclusive order if further unrest is to be avoided."

Why Palestine Should Take Israel to Court in The Hague (George Bisharat, The New York Times)

"If Palestinians succeed in getting the I.C.C. to examine their grievances, Israel's campaign to bend international law to its advantage would finally be subjected to international judicial review and, one hopes, curbed. Israel's dangerous legal innovations, if accepted, would expand the scope of permissible violence to previously protected persons and places, and turn international humanitarian law on its head. We do not want a world in which journalists become fair game because of their employers' ideas.

If the choice is between a Palestinian legal intifada, in which arguments are hashed out in court, and an actual intifada, in which blood flows in the streets, the global community should encourage the former.

Indeed, Palestinians would be doing themselves, Israelis and the global community a favor by invoking I.C.C. jurisdiction. Ending Israel's impunity for its clear violations of legal norms would both promote peace in the Middle East and help uphold the integrity of international law."

Egypt's Minister of Defense General Abdul Fattah el-Sisi, who is also head of the armed forces, said the current political crisis "could lead to a collapse of the state" which could "threaten future generations." His comments were posted on the military's Facebook page after five days of protests and violence have killed an estimated 52 people. Most of the violence has been in Port Said, Ismailia, and Suez, which President Mohamed Morsi declared under emergency law. Thousands of people took to the streets Monday night, ignoring the curfew in the provinces along the Suez Canal. Chaos has been particularly bad in Port Said with deadly clashes between security forces and protesters, who have declared the city independent from the rest of Egypt. Most of the violence had subsided on Tuesday. But, Sisi's statement, coming from the biggest institution in Egypt with a major economic and security role, sent a powerful message. Morsi invited political leaders for a national dialogue on Monday, but the opposition National Salvation Front (NSF) did not participate, citing "unfilled demands." NSF also said talks would be "useless under the status quo."

Syria

The bodies of at least 65 people apparently summarily executed were found in the Bustan al-Qasr district of Syria's northern city of Aleppo. According to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the people were found mostly with their hands tied behind their backs and with bullet wounds to the head, and they believe the death toll might reach 80. It is unclear who carried out the killings, but both government forces and opposition fighters have been accused of employing such tactics over the course of the two year conflict. Control of Aleppo is roughly split between the Syrian army and the opposition forces, and Bustan al-Qasr has been hotly contested. Additionally, after five days of clashes outside a government intelligence complex in Deir el-Zour, opposition fighters overran the facility, freeing at least 11 people held in a prison there. Meanwhile, the United Nations reported the number of registered refugees who have fled the conflict in Syria has reached about 712,000. The estimate surpassed 500,000 on December 11; more than 200,000 people have fled Syria in the last seven weeks. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said it is struggling to keep up with the dramatic increase of people mostly entering Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, Egypt, and North Africa.

Headlines

• Yemeni security forces reportedly seized a sailboat last Tuesday with explosives, weapons, and money. Officials suggested Iran has been involved in smuggling military contraband to insurgents.
• According to Iranian media, Iran launched a monkey into space apparently in a "modified artillery rocket." However, experts say no new military or strategic capability has been demonstrated.
• Britain's High Court will hear new allegations of abuse by British troops in Iraq between 2003 and 2008.
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Against all expectations, Jordan's parliamentary election this week seems to have generated some optimism. The big questions had little to do with the appeal of specific political platforms or even the candidates themselves, but rather with process and turnout. Would the newly-established Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) reverse Jordan's infamous track record of electoral fraud and pull off a transparent and credible election? Would voter participation exceed levels from previous elections or would citizen apathy and Muslim Brotherhood calls for a boycott take hold? Would the next parliament reflect the same tribal voting patterns and return familiar faces to parliament or inject some new blood into the mix? Final results of the Jordanian election have yet to be announced, but early indicators answer some of these questions and paint a far more interesting picture than anticipated.

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After nearly two years of political unrest, this week Bahrain's King Hamad called for renewed national dialogue. And while it appears some groups have agreed to talks, the major sticking point remains: the state will merely serve as the "moderator," and not participate directly, according to official statements. Although the crisis in Bahrain did result in a deepening sectarian conflict that requires national reconciliation, the demands of the Sunnis and Shiites are for social and political reforms, which can only be enacted by the government.

Al-Wefaq, the main Shiite political society, accepted the king's call on Wednesday. But its leaders remain deeply skeptical over whether the government is serious this time around.

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Preliminary results of Israel's election show a weakened Benjamin Netanyahu, who is nonetheless likely to serve a third term as prime minister, and a surprising shift toward the center. Netanyahu's Likud-Beitenu bloc came out on top with a predicted 31 seats out of the 120 in the Knesset. Coming in second, the new centrist Yesh Atid, There is a Future, led by former television personality Yair Lapid unexpectedly took a projected 19 seats. The center-left Labor party came in third taking an estimated 15 seats. Arab parties are projected to have won 12 seats. Netanyahu, entering the race as an overwhelming favorite, toned down the hawkish rhetoric he used to appeal to the right wing during the campaign, and said he would seek "as broad a government as possible." However, building a coalition could prove to be difficult and might take weeks. According to a senior member of Yesh Atid, whoever wants to include the party in the coalition will have to prioritize the peace process with the Palestinians and ending the exemption of ultra-Orthodox Jews from military conscription. Netanyahu said the first challenge for the new Knesset "was and remains preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons." Turnout for polling was estimated at 66.4 percent, the highest since 1999. Official results are due out on January 30.

Syria

About 77 Russian citizens, mostly women and children, flew into Moscow early Wednesday fleeing the nearing two-year conflict in Syria. The move may be a sign of diminishing hopes of the Russians that their ally President Bashar al-Assad will retain power. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted this is not the beginning of a mass evacuation of the country's citizens from Syria. He said about 1,000 out of the estimate 30,000 Russian citizens in the country have expressed an interest in leaving Syria. However, the evacuated Russians commented on the decline in conditions in the warring country. Meanwhile, a United Nation's humanitarian official, John Ging, reiterated concerns after a rare mission to Syria. He said conditions were "appalling" and he was "shocked on so many levels" by the scarcity of humanitarian resources.

Headlines

• Jordanians have begun voting on Wednesday in their first parliamentary elections since the Arab Spring. The Muslim Brotherhood, the country's biggest party, will boycott the elections.
• Bahrain's opposition has agreed to resume talks after an invitation from the justice minister in efforts to end divisions and violence plaguing the Gulf country for the past two years.
• Morocco's justice minister announced it is planning to reform its penal code to put an end to the practice of pardoning kidnappers or rapists if they marry their victims.
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On January 23, Jordanians will return to the polls to elect a new parliament. Among the many questions surrounding these polls, of course, is this: Does it matter? Both the 2007 and 2010 elections were marred by extensive charges of rigging, and each produced a lackluster parliament that was disbanded long before its term was up. Many Jordanians complain of economic injustices, corruption in government (especially in terms of business deals connected to privatization), and an electoral and governing system that seems to maintain the status quo. Faith and confidence in the system, in short, are in short supply.

Yet the Jordanian regime has been emphatic that these elections are different. Jordan is different. In my own meetings with King Abdullah, he has consistently argued that Jordan is carving a unique path through the regional Arab Spring: that it is a case of a regime reforming itself. The regime has emphasized that Jordan is at a key turning point, including a shift toward a truer parliamentary system of governance. In an effort to engage public debate and encourage voter participation, the king has even begun publishing a series of brief political treatises. The latest of these, issued this week, addresses the transition to a more parliamentary government. 

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A standoff unfolded between Algerian troops and an estimated 20 militants at the Tigantourine gas plant in In Amenas, Algeria. The militants have taken dozens of hostages, including American, European, and Japanese citizens, as well as many Algerians. The gas field is jointly operated by BP, the Norwegian company Statoil, and Algerian state oil Sonatrach. According to Algerian news, 15 foreigners escaped on Thursday and between 30 and 40 Algerian hostages had been released, mostly female translators. But these reports have not been verified. Mokhtar Belmoktar, a top commander for al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is believed to be leading the attack. Two groups supposedly reporting to him have taken responsibility: the Khaled Abu al-Abbas Brigade and the Signed-in-Blood Battalion. The attackers are demanding an end to French military operations in Mali. Additionally, they are demanding safe passage out of Algeria with the hostages, but the Algerian government has refused to cooperate.

Syria

According to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 106 people were killed in government raids in Homs this week. The dead had been shot, stabbed, or possibly burned alive, and many houses were set on fire in the impoverished neighborhood of Basatin al-Hasawiya, on the edge of the city. The district saw clashes earlier this week between regime forces and opposition fighters. Meanwhile, three nearly simultaneous car bombings killed at least 22 people and wounded 30, mostly Syrian government soldiers, in Idlib on Wednesday. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, security vehicles, buildings, and a checkpoint had been targeted. Addressing concerns that the Syrian government used chemical weapons in an attack on Homs on December 23, 2012, the U.S. State Department said its investigation shows that the regime did not use chemical weapons, but rather seemingly misused a riot-control gas. On Tuesday, Foreign Policy's "The Cable" blog reported that a diplomatic cable from Turkey provided a "compelling case" that chemical weapons were used, causing several deaths and severe illnesses.

Headlines

• At least 22 people have been killed in a wave of bombings across Iraq on Thursday, primarily targeting Shiite pilgrims in the second day of heightened violence.
• Thousands of Kurds gathered in Turkey's southeastern city of Diyarbakir for the funeral of three Kurdish activists shot and killed last week in Paris.
• An eight-story apartment building collapsed Wednesday in Egypt's second largest city of Alexandria killing 28 people and further highlighting concerns about the country's safety regulations. 
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A wave of attacks in Iraq Wednesday morning killed nearly 30 people and injured hundreds of people in the bloodiest day in two weeks. Two car bombs exploded in the ethnically mixed city of Kirkuk, about 180 miles north of Baghdad, near the local headquarters of the Kurdistan Democratic Party. An estimated 19 people were killed and over 200 injured. Also in Kirkuk, a suicide bomber hit a Kurdish security facility killing at least four people. The assault appeared to target a local office of Masoud Bazani, president of Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdish region. Another suicide car bombing hit Tuz Khurmatu, south of Kirkuk, near the headquarters of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. The bombing killed two people and wounded 26 others. Sectarian tensions have recently increased in the disputed region after Iraqi government troops confronted Kurdish militias as Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has sought to consolidate security. The attacks in Kirkuk came a day after Sunni member of parliament, Efan al-Essawi, was killed by a suicide bomber in Anbar Province. The country has recently seen a rise in mass anti-Maliki demonstrations accusing the prime minister of marginalizing Sunnis.

Syria

Syrian government forces have stepped up an offensive in the northern city of Aleppo a day after at least two deadly explosions hit Aleppo University as students were taking exams. The Syrian regime and opposition forces have traded blame for the attacks, which killed more than 80 people and wounded over 160. The source of the attacks as well as the target remains unclear. The northern part of the campus is surround by government military intelligence and security buildings. Control in Aleppo is essentially split between government and opposition forces, but the university's campus has largely been spared from the fierce fighting that has engulfed Syria's largest city for months. According to Syria's state news agency, SANA, the "Armed Forces carried out several special operations against mercenary terrorists in Aleppo and its countryside, inflicting heavy losses." SANA added that government forces also killed militants in the al-Laramon area of Aleppo from where it claimed two rockets were fired on Tuesday at the university. Opposition activists and fighters claim Aleppo University was hit by government airstrikes.

Headlines

• Islamist militants linked to al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb have reportedly killed one foreigner and abducted six others in an attack on the In Amenas gas field in eastern Algeria.
• Turkish fighter jets bombed more than 50 Kurdish militant targets in northern Iraq on Tuesday in the largest aerial campaign in years, threatening peace talks between the government and PKK leader Ocalan.
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For almost two years, since February 17, 2011, Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province has seen a protest movement inspired by the Arab Spring that called for democracy, dignity, and more rights for Saudi Arabia's disenfranchised Shiite minority. The killing of protesters and the arrest and shooting of key oppositional clerics have spurred three cycles of protests. A renewed wave of protests and funerals was set in motion by the killing of 18-year old Ahmad Al Matar on December 27, 2012 in Qatif. Much of the escalation was blamed on the security forces, and especially on the long-serving governor of the Eastern Province, Muhammad bin Fahd.

And on Monday, January 14, the Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz issued a decree relieving the governor of his duties after 28 years "upon his request" and appointing Prince Saud bin Nayef bin Abdul Aziz as the new governor of the Eastern Province.

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On Sunday, an Egyptian appeals court ordered a retrial of former President Hosni Mubarak and his Interior Minister Habib el-Adly, indicted in 2011 and sentenced to life in prison for allowing the killing of about 850 protesters during the 18-day uprisings. It is unclear if the appeal, called for by the defendants, is a victory or setback for Mubarak, as the defense and prosecution have both appealed the verdict. Supporters of Mubarak are hoping for his acquittal, as the judge who issued the verdict at the time said there was no evidence to back up a conviction. Rather, he deemed Mubarak and his interior ministry responsible for the deaths of the civilian demonstrators because of their positions. Lawyers under President Mohamed Morsi could introduce new evidence from a presidential fact-finding commission. However, if convicted, Mubarak will receive a life sentence or less as under Egyptian law a defendant cannot receive a harsher sentence in a retrial. El-Adly as well as Mubarak's sons Gamal and Alaa will also be retried along with Mubarak on corruption charges. Additionally, Egyptian prosecutors have begun a new case against Mubarak for allegedly taking over $1 million in gifts from the state news agency Al Ahram.

Syria

The Syrian government launched deadly airstrikes on Sunday and Monday as the International Rescue Committee (IRC) said the conflict is causing a "staggering humanitarian disaster." According to activists, an airstrike on Moadamiyeh, an opposition held suburb southwest of Damascus, killed at least 13 people, including five women and eight children. On Sunday, activists reported at least 45 people were killed in government airstrikes in the suburbs east of Damascus, as the Syrian regime works to push the opposition away from the capital and the presidential palace. Syria's state news agency, SANA, said government airstrikes had killed scores of "armed terrorists" in the Damascus suburbs. Meanwhile, the New York-based, IRC released a report Monday entitled "Syria: a regional crisis" citing sexual violence as the primary reason for the flight of many Syrian refugees. Over 600,000 people have fled the country since the beginning of the uprising in March 2011 and an estimated 2 million people are believed to be internally displaced. The IRC said international aid is "drastically insufficient" and called for increased funding and planning from the international community to deal what it said is "certain to be a long-term regional crisis."

Headlines

• Tunisia faces high unemployment and violence as it marks the two-year anniversary of the revolution that overthrew President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali.
• Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged construction of a settlement in the West Bank E1 area after police evicted Palestinians and international activists who had set up 20 tents on the site.
• Imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan is set to be visited by his brother on Monday after the killing of three Kurdish activists in Paris last week threatened to disrupt peace talks with the Turkish government.
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