According to a United Nations study, more than 60,000 people have been killed since Syria's uprising began in March 2011. The previous estimate by the British based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights was 45,000. United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay said, "The number of causalities is much higher than we expected, and is truly shocking." The UN estimate includes Syrian soldiers, opposition fighters, or civilians. Adding to the death toll Wednesday was a government strike on a petrol station in the opposition held Damascus suburb of Muleiha. At least 30 civilians were incinerated while waiting in line for the rare chance to fill up their tanks. Activists said rockets were fired at the petrol station from a nearby Syrian air base. Other government strikes were reported in several Damascus suburbs as well as in Homs and Hama. Also on Wednesday, the family of James Foley, an American freelance reporter, announced that he has been missing since he was abducted on November 22 in northwest Syria. Meanwhile, fighting continued into Thursday at Taftanaz air base in the northwestern Idlib province as well as at the Aleppo international airport. However, unverified reports said Syrian forces pushed the opposition fighters out of Taftanaz.

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• Qatari owned Al Jazeera has bought Al Gore's Current TV, valued at over $500 million, which it plans to replace with an Al Jazeera America news channel. However, the channel was swiftly dropped by Time Warner Cable, Inc..
• Turkish police detained ex-army chief, Ismail Hakki Karadayi, over a 1997 coup against the country's Islamist led government, in what some government opponents see as a "witch hunt."
• After two years and spending approximately $416 million, Israel has completed most of its 140-mile-long fence along the border with Egypt.
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NATO officials said the Syrian government fired more Scud-type missiles at opposition targets in Syria on Thursday, about a week after their use was first detected. NATO Secretary Genera Anders Fogh Rasmussen said it was the "act of a desperate regime approaching collapse." NATO and the United States reported that over six Scud missiles were fired last week from Damascus into opposition held areas of northern Syria. Rasmussen said this further justified the deployment of Patriot missile systems to protect the Turkish border. Meanwhile, opposition fighters are pushing into Morek, a strategic town on the highway from Damascus to Aleppo in Hama province. Additionally opposition fighters are surrounding al-Tleisia, a town dominated by President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite sect, as the conflict becomes increasing more sectarian in nature. According to activists, the Syrian regime has been shelling the town of Halfaya, which was overtaken by opposition forces two days prior. Government forces also continued shelling the Damascus suburb in efforts to stem opposition gains near the capital. Fighting in the Damascus Palestinian camp of Yarmouk began to subside on Thursday, and some of the over 100,000 residents who fled have started to return.

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• Islamists and opposition members clashed in Egypt's second city of Alexandria at a rally called by the Muslim Brotherhood, a day before the final round of voting on a controversial draft constitution.
• Egypt's chief prosecutor, Talaat Ibrahim Abdullah, appointed in President Morsi's controversial November 22 decree, has retracted his resignation saying he had been pressured to resign.
• Iraq's Sunni Muslim Finance Minister Rafia al-Issawi has denounced raids on his office and the arrests of about 150 of his bodyguards and staff members saying that it was a premeditated act by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
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The U.S. State Department's Accountability Review Board (ARB) for Benghazi released a report citing failures of the State Department in the September 11 attacks on the U.S. consulate in Libya. The report by the independent panel, convened by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and headed by Admiral Mike Mullen, said security at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi was "grossly inadequate" to deal with the attack, which killed U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans. The review found "systematic failures" within the State Department, citing "leadership and management" deficiencies at two department bureaus -- Diplomatic Security and Near Eastern Affairs. It said no official ignored his or her duties or "engaged in misconduct," but cited poor coordination among officials, and "real confusion" over who had the responsibility and power to make policy and security decisions. Backlash over the attack turned political ahead of the November 6 presidential elections and Republicans have attacked U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice for comments she made after the assault, leading her to withdraw from consideration to replace Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State next year. Although no one was singled out in the review, the report is likely to tarnish the tenure of Clinton. She said she has accepted and will adopt all of the 29 recommendations made in the report.

Syria

The United Nations has appealed for about $1.5 billion for humanitarian assistance to deal with the Syrian crisis. The U.N. request was for $519.6 million to help the estimated four million people in need in Syria, two million who have been internally displaced, and $1 billion to go toward aid for the estimated 1 million refugees who fled the conflict and are living in five countries. The United Nations' statement said this is the "largest short-term humanitarian appeal ever" estimating that 25 percent of Syria's population is in need of humanitarian relief. Russia's Defense Ministry has announced it is sending a flotilla of five ships from the Baltic Sea port of Baltiysk to relieve ships near Syria, set to arrive in the beginning of January. A Russian naval official said the ships were "on their way to the coast of Syria for possible participation in the evacuation of Russian citizens." Russia has been a staunch ally of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, but in recent days has signaled it sees the government forces losing ground. Russia has insisted, however, that it has not changed position on Syria. U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta appealed to Russia to begin cooperating with the growing international community supporting the opposition coalition working to remove Assad. The statements came after parts for NATO Patriot missiles began arriving in Turkey which will protect the border with Syria. Meanwhile, fierce clashes have continued near the capital of Damascus. According to Syrian state television, Syrian government forces are conducting a broad offensive against opposition fighters in the suburbs of Damascus, where the rebels have made significant gains capturing air bases and military installations. Fighting has continued in the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk with government airstrikes on Tuesday.

Headlines  

• Iraq's President Jalal Talabani, a unifying figure in Iraqi politics, who suffered a stroke on Monday is reportedly in a coma. However his condition is said to be improving.
• Egyptian Islamist groups are planning a massive protest in Alexandria, the country's second largest city, on Friday, a day ahead of the final round of voting on the draft constitution.
• The UAE has arrested 7 online activists critical of the government in the past week a month after the government tightened the law on internet use.
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It has been widely noted that monarchies have done better at surviving the Arab uprisings that began two years ago. Three Presidents (Ben Ali, Mubarak, and Saleh) have fallen, along with Muammar al-Qaddafi's unique Jamahiriaya, while Bashar al-Assad's Baathist presidential regime faces a mortal threat.  No Arab monarch has yet lost his throne. For some analysts and academics, this pattern suggests a fairly obvious "monarchical exception" which demands explanation.

In August, I launched a debate on Foreign Policy about whether and how monarchy matters in explaining the resilience of Arab regimes. I was not impressed. Against arguments that monarchies possess some kind of unique legitimacy commanding the loyalty of their people, I noted that Arab monarchies have in fact faced significant popular mobilization over the last two years: Bahrain has had one of the most intense and protracted uprisings anywhere; Kuwait is facing the deepest political crisis in its post-occupation history; Jordan experienced unprecedented protests; Saudi Arabia has had a protracted challenge in its Eastern Province; Oman experienced unusual levels of protest; Morocco's protest movement drove the king to adopt a significant (if underwhelming) constitutional initiative. I concluded, "the monarchies look like fairly typical Arab authoritarian regimes, surviving because they enjoy greater financial resources, less demanding international allies, and powerful media assets to perpetuate their legitimation myths."

The responses I got over email, over Twitter, across blogs, and at various academic conferences convinced me that the monarchy question remains an open one, however. It is an important debate for political scientists and analysts, with a wide range of arguments and evidence to consider. Over the last few months, I have reached out to a number of leading scholars to weigh in on the question of Arab monarchy. I asked them to move beyond simple binaries ("monarchy does or doesn't matter") to explore the specific mechanisms by which it might matter, to weigh them against competing explanations, and to show how monarchy operated in particular cases which they knew well. Those articles, along with some particularly relevant older Middle East Channel essays, are now collected in today's new POMEPS Brief, "The Arab Monarchy Debate."

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U.S. officials have confirmed that the Syrian government has fired at least six scud missiles this week at opposition held targets in northern Syria, in a possible escalation of the 21-month long conflict. There have been no confirmed casualties from the strikes, and U.S. officials are unclear as to President Bashar al-Assad's intentions for using scuds, which are not known for their precision. Chemical weapons could be loaded onto scud missiles, but there is no evidence they were used for that purpose. U.S. State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said, "As the regime becomes more and more desperate, we see it resorting to increased lethality and more vicious weapons." Additionally, Human Rights Watch accused Syrian forces of dropping incendiary bombs on opposition held residential areas. For the first time, a Russian official admitted Assad may be losing control, signaling a change of course from a major Syrian ally. Russia's special envoy for Middle East affairs, Mikhail Bogdanov, said, "Unfortunately, the victory of the Syrian opposition cannot be ruled out." Opposition forces now control significant territory to the east and southeast of Damascus. Meanwhile, a car bomb in the town of Qatana, about 15 miles southwest of Damascus killed at least 16 people, including women and children. The blast hit near a school in a residential area for Syrian soldiers near several army bases. On Wednesday evening, three bombs hit the interior ministry killing five people, according to Syria's state news agency, SANA. Syrian parliament member Abdullah Qairouz was among those reported killed.

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• I.A.E.A. inspectors are meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran to hold talks over Iran's disputed nuclear program but are unlikely to gain access to Parchin or other suspected military complexes.
• After debating a boycott, Egypt's opposition National Salvation Front has called for supporters to vote "no" on the constitutional referendum, but may still boycott if certain conditions aren't met by Saturday.
• Egyptian blogger Alber Saber, a Coptic Christian but proclaimed atheist, was sentenced to three years in jail on charges of blasphemy after sharing an anti-Islam video in September that sparked mass protest.
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Egyptian expatriates have begun voting in embassies around the world on a referendum pushed by President Mohamed Morsi on a disputed draft constitution. Voting in Egypt will be held over two days, December 15 and 22. At the same time, the Egyptian army is planning to hold "unity" talks with rival factions in Cairo, deeply divided over the referendum. Egypt's Defense Minister General Abdul Fattah el-Sisi invited Morsi, political leaders, and government officials to participate in the dialogue. Opponents of the largely Islamist drafted constitution have called for the referendum to be postponed. However, Morsi has remained steadfast, despite mass protests, that a new constitution must be passed before national elections can be held. Meanwhile, Finance Minster Mumtaz al-Said announced on Tuesday that a $4.8 billion International Monetary Fund loan to Egypt would be delayed for a month due to the political crisis which has dampened Morsi's ability to push through necessary economic reforms. On Sunday, the government issued a variety of new taxes, only to reverse the decision hours later due to backlash from the opposition as well as from within the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt's economy is verging on collapse, and the British-based banking giant HSBC warned that further delay could seriously jeopardize Egypt's recovery.

Syria

U.S. President Barack Obama has formally recognized the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as the "legitimate representative" of the Syrian people, paving the way for greater U.S. support for to the opposition. The United States joins Britain, France, Turkey, and the Gulf states, which recognized the National Coalition shortly after it was formed in November. The announcement came ahead of a meeting of the "Friends of Syria" -- foreign ministers from more than 70 countries gathering in Morocco to discuss the conflict in Syria and options for a political transition. The group includes representatives from many western and Arab countries who have opposed Assad, but excludes Assad's allies Russia and Iran, as well as China, which has joined Russia to block U.N. resolutions on Syria. The "Friends of Syria" also formally recognized the opposition council and called for President Bashar al-Assad's resignation. The group will create a relief fund "to support the Syrian people" but there was no commitment for supplying arms to the opposition fighters, although that was not ruled out for the future. The National Council said recognition is nice, but called for "real support" including humanitarian assistance and military equipment. Meanwhile, between 125 and 300 people were killed in bombings and gunfire in Hama province in the predominantly Alawite village of Aqrab, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. According to opposition activists, the civilians were being held hostage by Shabiha, pro-government militiamen, in a building that was bombed by government warplanes. Activists said the Free Syria Army was making a siege on the building. These accounts cannot be verified as there have been conflicting reports, and the Syrian government has not made any statements on the incident.

Headlines  

• Kuwait's emir named a new cabinet Tuesday, the 11th since 2006 due to a series of political crises, after parliamentary elections were largely boycotted by the opposition.
• Masked gunmen killed senior intelligence officer, Colonel Ahmed Barmadah, outside his home in the southern Yemeni port city of Mukalla on Tuesday. No one has claimed responsibility. 
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Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has authorized the military to make arrests after the revocation of a constitutional decree on Saturday failed to quell protests. Morsi participated in a national dialogue on Saturday and rescinded the decree issued on November 22, which extended executive powers, and has since sparked unrest. Morsi issued a new decree Saturday night and said that a referendum on the Islamist backed draft constitution will proceed on December 15. Opposition leaders have rejected the move and are calling for fresh protests on Tuesday. They have opposed the constitution, saying it does not represent the Egyptian people. On Sunday, Morsi ordered the Egyptian Armed Forces to maintain security and protect state institutions until the results from the constitutional referendum are announced, allowing them to use force. The army is wary of the authority saying it wants to stay out of the political struggle.

Syria

Clashes have continued in the Syrian capital of Damascus and its suburbs, with fighting breaking out less than a mile from President Bashar al-Assad's office. For over a week, the Syrian opposition and government forces have battled over the road to Damascus's international airport, with the opposition trying to close off the capital. The radical Islamist group Jabhat al-Nusra, which the United States has been considering declaring a terrorist group, seized a regimental command center in the northern Aleppo province. Meanwhile, nine Syrian judges and prosecutors have defected, announced in a video posted on YouTube Sunday. According to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the judges came from the northern city of Adlib. Meanwhile, after meetings last week, the United States and Russia have committed to a political solution for Syria, according to U.N. and Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi. However, Russia maintained that it is not aiming for the replacement of Assad, despite speculations it is softening. Amid escalating concerns that the Syrian regime is planning to use chemical weapons, the United States and some European allies have been funding training for Syrian opposition forces on how to secure chemical weapons stockpiles.

Headlines  

• Up to 17 people have died in days of clashes in Lebanon's northern city of Tripoli between the Sunni Bab al-Tabbaneh and the Alawite Jabal Mohsen neighborhoods. The fighting was sparked by the Syrian conflict.
• Egyptian authorities have arrested Muhammad Jamal Abu Ahmad, the suspected leader of the group allegedly behind the September attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya.  
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The Egyptian army deployed tanks to the presidential palace overnight to break up protests after violent clashes between supporters of President Mohamed Morsi and opponents killed an estimated five people and injured about 450 others. Egypt's Republican Guard deployed tanks and armored vehicles on Thursday ordering tens of thousands of demonstrators to disperse. The Commander of the Guard, General Mohamed Zaki, said that the forces were deployed to separate rival protesters, not repress the demonstrators. After clashes throughout the night, conditions calmed considerably during the morning, other than a short period of rock throwing between the hundreds of Islamists and dozens of Morsi opponents who remained in front of the palace. Unrest in Egypt was sparked by a November 22 presidential decree expanding Morsi's powers as well as a controversial draft constitution set to come to a referendum on December 15. Clashes also erupted Wednesday in other cities across Egypt; Muslim Brotherhood offices were attacked in Ismailia, Suez, Mahalla, and Cairo. Three of Morsi's advisors resigned on Wednesday over the controversy. Morsi, who has remained relatively silent throughout the recent unrest, is scheduled to address the country on Thursday.

Syria

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the U.N. and Arab League peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi are meeting in Dublin, Ireland on Thursday to discuss the conflict in Syria as concerns heighten over chemical weapons. The unscheduled meeting is taking place on the sidelines of a human rights conference. Russia and the United States have bitterly disagreed on courses of action in Syria. Russia has blocked U.N. Security Council resolutions and accuses the United States of interfering in Syrian internal affairs. But the meeting suggests a possible opening for compromise. The meeting comes as concerns increase over the potential use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime. U.S. intelligence officials have reportedly discovered that Syrian forces have mixed together precursor chemicals for the deadly nerve agent Sarin in small quantities at one or two storage sites. The Syrian government has repeatedly asserted it will not resort to using chemical weapons, blaming Western countries for drumming up fears as a "pretext for intervention." Fighting continued on Wednesday in the suburbs of Damascus, as well as at the Aqraba air base near the Damascus airport, which has remained effectively closed over the past six days. Meanwhile, Germany agreed on Thursday to deploy up to 400 troops and Patriot missiles to the Turkish border in efforts to protect Turkey from a spillover of the conflict.  

Headlines  

• A moderate earthquake killed at least five people and injured 20 others on Wednesday near Zohan in eastern Iran.
• Hamas political leader Khaled Meshaal, who has lived in exile for 45 years, will visit the Gaza Strip on Friday for the Palestinian militant group's 25th anniversary rally. 
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The United States quickly denied claims by Iran that its Revolutionary Guards Corps naval forces had captured an unmanned U.S. drone. According to Iranian state television, the aircraft is a Boeing built ScanEagle, which it captured after entering Iranian airspace over the Persian Gulf. It is unclear how or when it was brought down. State television displayed images of what appeared to be an undamaged ScanEagle drone with the commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps naval forces Rear Adm. Ali Fadavi, and a message in Persian and English saying, "We will trample the U.S. under our feet." Commander Jason Salata, a spokesman for the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command in Bahrain, countered the Iranian claims saying no U.S. drones operating in the Middle East region are missing. Other countries in the Gulf region have ScanEagle drones, including the United Arab Emirates. Iran's claims have come about two weeks after U.S. Pentagon officials reported that Iranian warplanes had fired upon a U.S. Predator drone which they said was flying in international airspace over the Gulf two weeks prior. About a year ago, Iran claimed to have forced down another unmanned U.S. drone, an RQ-170 Sentinel, by hacking into its controls. However, U.S. officials said the drone crashed in Iranian territory. Tensions between Iran and the United States have been increasingly heightened over Iran's disputed nuclear program. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, the vital Gulf waterway through which approximately 40 percent of the world's crude oil is shipped.

Syria

NATO joined the United States in warning the Syrian regime against the use of chemical weapons and will decide today whether it will deploy Patriot missiles to protect Turkey's border with Syria. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasumssen said the use of chemical weapons would be "completely unacceptable" after warnings by U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He added that if they were to be used, he "would expect an immediate reaction from the international community." The Syrian government has maintained it will not resort to chemical weapons. However there have been recent reports that chemical weapons stockpiles have been moved and could be prepared for use. Intelligence that Syria was considering using ballistic missiles, which could be armed with chemical warheads, is what initially sparked a request from Turkey for NATO anti-missile systems to be stationed along its border with Syria. NATO is expected to approve the request in meetings today in Brussels. Fierce clashes have continued between Syrian forces and opposition fighters around Damascus and along the road that connects the capital with its international airport. According to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 200 people were killed across the country on Monday, 60 of them around Damascus. Meanwhile, Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi has reportedly left Syrian and defected. Lebanese officials have confirmed that he was in Beirut for several days, and he is believed to have departed for London, although there has been no confirmation of his destination.

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• Egypt's Supreme Judicial Council agreed to oversee a referendum on a new constitution despite initial statements of boycott. Opposition activists continue protests, and media outlets continue to strike against President Morsi.
• Israel remains committed to recently announced settlement expansion that would nearly bisect the West Bank, despite European condemnation and U.S. disapproval.
• Amnesty International has released a report finding human rights abuses in Yemen's Abyan province during the government's conflict with al Qaeda-linked militants between 2011 and 2012.
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The political crisis between Egypt's judges and President Mohamed Morsi worsens as the Judge's Club said on Sunday it will not supervise a December 15 referendum on a constitution draft passed by the Islamist dominated Constituent Assembly on Thursday. The decision, however, is not binding for individual judges. Additionally, the Supreme Constitutional Court (SCC) said it will suspend its work indefinitely after about 2,000 pro-Morsi protesters blocked judges from reaching the SCC's building this weekend. The SCC was set to vote on the legality of the Egyptian parliament's upper house as well as the Constituent Assembly, after having dissolved the Muslim Brotherhood controlled lower house of parliament in June and the previous constitution drafting assembly. Meanwhile, at least 200,000 Morsi supporters rallied at Cairo University on Saturday, in efforts to counter protests in Tahrir Square against Morsi's November 22 presidential decree expanding executive powers.

Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin is meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on Monday to discuss the escalating crisis in Syria as violence flares on the border. Relations between Turkey and Russia have been tense over contrasting views on how to deal with the 20-month conflict in Syria, particularly stoked in October when Turkey forced down a Syrian aircraft en route from Damascus to Russia on suspicions it carried military cargo. Additionally, Russia, a key ally to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has opposed a request by Turkey to install NATO patriot missiles along its border with Syria. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she hopes NATO will agree this week to stationing the missiles. The group is scheduled to meet in Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday. Just hours before Putin's landmark visit, Turkey deployed F-16 fighter jets after two Syrian jet strikes along the border. Syrian warplanes have repeatedly bombarded the Syria town of Ras al-Ain, across the border from the Turkish town of Ceylanpinar. Meanwhile, the Syrian military has recently moved some of its chemical weapons stores prompting repeated warnings from the United States and several allies against their use. Clinton warned that the United States is planning to take action in the event the Syria regime uses chemical weapons. Syria's foreign ministry responded saying, "Syria has stressed repeatedly that it will not use these types of weapons, if they were available, under any circumstances against its people." Fighting has continued between Syrian forces and opposition fighters in the suburbs surrounding Damascus, and on the road linking the capital to its international airport.

Headlines  

• Israel suffers international condemnation after announcing plans to build 3,000 new settlement homes in a move criticized for jeopardizing the Israeli and Palestinian peace process.
• Kuwait's opposition is planning mass demonstrations against the election of a new parliament in polling that was largely boycotted on Saturday.
• The United States has increased surveillance of Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor over heightened concerns over safety at the reactor.
• Iraqi officials have reported security forces have arrested a top al Qaeda leader in Iraq believed to be Abu Bakr a-Baghdadi as well as a list of names and locations of other operatives.
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The Obama administration's opposition to yesterday's United Nations General Assembly vote on the Palestine Liberation Organization's (PLO) bid for non-member observer state status once again places the United States outside the consensus of the vast majority of the international community. While the merits and usefulness of such a move by the PLO can be debated, the United States has once again made it clear that it lacks any new ideas as to how to move toward a just and lasting peace in the region and suggests that the administration is likely to continue to support blindly whatever the current Israeli government wants.

However, looking forward to his second term, President Barack Obama faces three basic options for dealing with the Palestine issue. Their outlines have not really changed since the most recent Israeli attacks on Gaza. The first is the tried and true method of simply ignoring Palestine and the Palestinians, while paying lip service to the "peace process" and attempting to extract unreciprocated Palestinian concessions to Israel. This approach was practiced during most of the administration of George W. Bush, and over the last two years by that of Obama. There are many pretexts for following this course of action today. These range from the persistent political divisions in Palestinian ranks and the feebleness of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Ramallah, to the supposedly "terrorist" nature of the Hamas leadership in Gaza. They include as well the stubborn unwillingness of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu to engage in serious negotiations to change the intolerable status quo of never-ending settlement growth and strict Israeli control over the millions of Palestinians who have lived under Israel military occupation for over 45 years. If, as clearly seems to be the case, the Israeli government is not fully willing to allow unfettered Palestinian self-determination, terminate its occupation, and remove its settlers, what is the point of "negotiations" for the Palestinians? Another reason for doing nothing is the unbroken record of failure of every U.S. president since Jimmy Carter in trying to stop the inexorable expansion of the Israeli settlement enterprise. This vast endeavor now comprises nearly 600,000 colonists -- or about one in every 10 Israeli Jews, who live on stolen Palestinian land in a far-flung archipelago explicitly intended to make the creation of a contiguous, viable Palestinian state physically impossible, with majestic success thus far.

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Palestine is likely to win "non-member state" status today in a vote by the United Nations General Assembly. The Palestinian Liberation Organization believes it has support of 130 members of the 193-member body, and the bid only needs a simple majority to pass. If successful, the Palestinian status will be elevated from observer entity to observer state, equal to that of the Vatican. The bid has been strongly opposed by the Israel and the United States. The United States has stressed that Palestinian statehood should be achieved through negotiations with Israel, not unilateral actions, and has threatened to reduce U.S. economic assistance to the Palestinians. Israel has warned it might take significant deductions from duty transfers to the Palestinians. The European Union is split with France, Spain, Greece, and Ireland in support, and Germany likely to abstain. The Czech Republic is expected to vote against the bid. Britain said it will back the resolution, but only if given assurances that the Palestinians will participate in negotiations with Israel "without preconditions." While the move is largely symbolic, it will have some practical implications including allowing Palestinian membership in U.N. bodies such as the International Criminal Court, where it could pursue Israel for war crimes. Last year, the Palestinian Authority applied for full state status, a move also strongly opposed by the United States, but the bid stalled in the U.N. Security Council.

Syria

The National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, a Syrian opposition body, began talks in Egypt on Wednesday in efforts to form an alternate government to that of President Bashar al-Assad. The group spent the day discussing the structure of the government and how leadership candidates would be chosen. The talks have not yet broached the election of a transitional government. Britain, France, Turkey, and the Gulf Cooperation Council have officially recognized the opposition coalition, and formation of a transitional government could pave the way for greater international acceptance and financial support. The European Union said it will reduce the renewal term for sanctions on Syria to make it easier in the future to equip opposition forces fighting against Assad. Opposition forces have reportedly used surface-to-air missiles to shoot down two Syrian aircraft in northern Syria in less than 24 hours, including a helicopter on Tuesday and a warplane on Wednesday. If opposition fighters have increased capability to counter the government's air campaign, it could mark a turning point for the insurgents.

Headlines  

• Egypt's Constituent Assembly is fast-tracking the constitution, announcing the complete draft will come to a vote on Thursday amid a standoff between President Morsi and the judiciary. 
• Bombings on Thursday morning targeted Shiites in the Iraqi cities of Karbala and Hilla killing at least 39 people and wounding over 100 in the third day of increased attacks.
• The World Bank has approved a $500 million loan to Tunisia stressing transparency and saying reforms must "respond to the aspirations of Tunisians expressed in the revolution."
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Yasir Arafat had a canny knack for ensuring that Palestine never strayed too far from the world's headlines. His ghost may turn out to be no less resourceful. Today, a multinational team of medical and forensic experts exhumed the late Palestinian president's remains, as part of an investigation to determine whether he was poisoned. And, Thursday, the United Nations General Assembly, Arafat's favorite international forum, appears poised to confer the status of "non-member observer state" upon Palestine. The timing of these two developments appears coincidental, but what happens next may determine the fate of another apparent victim of foul play: the Middle East peace process.

The decision to exhume Arafat's remains, almost eight years after his demise, is itself illuminating. Why, many have asked, wasn't it done earlier, when potential evidence of wrongdoing remained fresh? Although it is tempting to suspect a conspiracy, the reality likely hews closer to Hamlet than Julius Caesar. Just after Arafat's death in 2004, a negotiated settlement of the conflict remained a tantalizing prospect: Israel withdrew its troops from the Gaza Strip in 2005, a new Palestinian-Israeli agreement on movement and access was concluded later the same year, and Palestinians returned to the polls in 2006 for the first time in a decade. While many Palestinians suspected from the start that Arafat died from unnatural causes, their leadership, like the court of Denmark in Hamlet, preferred not to be confronted with potentially unpleasant facts about the late patriarch's death. Why inflame the situation just as tempers were cooling? Why risk souring relations with Israel and the United States when progress was close at hand? Wasn't it possible, after all, that Arafat had been the obstacle to peace all along?

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Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi is meeting with top officials from the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) Monday in efforts to calm a crisis sparked by a decree he issued Thursday which extended executive powers. The announcement sparked major demonstrations and a 9 percent plunge in the country's stock market. Clashes between police and protesters have wounded 500 people and killed a 15-year-old Muslim Brotherhood member, who died in an attack on the main Brotherhood office in the town of Damanhour. Protesters criticize the decree for exempting Morsi's decisions from judicial review and the opposition has accused him of behaving like a new dictator equating him to former President Hosni Mubarak. They say they will only be satisfied by a full retraction of the decree, however the SJC has implied it is willing to compromise saying the decree should apply only to "sovereign matters." On Sunday Morsi said the decree is temporary, until a new constitution is approved and parliament instated, and his move was not intended to concentrate power in his hands. Morsi's supporters and opponents are planning large demonstrations for Tuesday and the Muslim Brotherhood has called for a million-man march.

Syria

Syrian opposition activists have reported a Syrian government cluster bomb attack has killed 10 children and wounded 15 people. A Syrian MiG fighter jet reportedly dropped multiple bombs Sunday on a playground in the village of Deir al-Asafir, east of Damascus. The Syrian government denied the claims as "baseless" saying the military does not possess such weapons. On Sunday, opposition fighters claimed they seized a military air base at Marj al-Sultan, not far from Damascus. The British based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the opposition fighters later pulled out from the base, but the report has not been verified. Additionally, opposition fighters have claimed to have taken the hydroelectric Tishreen dam on the Euphrates river in northern Aleppo province after several days of clashes. Meanwhile, the conflict has again reportedly spilled outside Syria's borders as Turkey fired on Syrian warplanes that appeared to have entered Turkish airspace while attacking opposition fighters in the Syrian town of Atma, along the border. Having requested NATO Patriot missiles, the Turkish military said surface-to-air missiles will be used only to protect the border, not to establish a no-fly zone in Syria. A Turkish and NATO team is set to meet Tuesday to begin assessments on where to station the missiles and to discuss who will operate them.

Headlines  

• Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak announced his retirement from Israeli politics and said he will not run in parliamentary elections scheduled for January.
• Scientists and legal experts from Switzerland, France, and Russia have begun to arrive in the West Bank set to exhume the body of former Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat on Tuesday over suspicions that he may have been poisoned.
• The 18th United Nations climate change conference began Monday in Doha, Qatar, for the first time held in the Gulf.
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