As Egypt nears its upcoming presidential elections, the country remains mired in continued political instability and the fog of events that has characterized the country's opaque transition. As a result, crises remain unexplained and inscrutable, further complicating the ability to gauge voter sentiment with any degree of confidence. Coupled with the rudimentary history of public polling and their utter unreliability in the Egyptian context, predictions about electoral outcomes should be approached with the utmost degree of caution. While signs point to a fragmented voter distribution in the first round of voting, there is much we still do not know about the Egyptian electorate and voter behavior. However, based on recent interviews and meetings with Egyptian political leaders and commentators, it is clear that a backlash has developed against the Islamist-led parliament. The scope and breadth of that backlash will now determine whether the compromised former foreign minister of Egypt, Amr Moussa, becomes the country's next president.  

Read on

An estimated 1,600 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails have agreed to end a hunger strike that has lasted nearly a month in a deal brokered by Egypt and assisted by Jordan after Israel promised better conditions. Three Palestinian men began the hunger strike on February 28, refusing food for 77 days, and were joined by almost one third of the Palestinian prisoners in one of the longest and largest hunger strikes. The attorney for two of the men who have been fasting the longest and are reported to be nearing death, Bilal Diab and Taer Halahleh, has said the two will continue their strike. Israel has agreed to allow family visits for around 400 prisoners from Gaza for the first time since 2006 and about 20 prisoners who have been held in solitary confinement have been returned to the general prison population. Israeli officials, have not committed to halting the practice of detention without levying formal charges or holding trials, called "administrative detentions." However, it appears that the prison sentences for those currently held without charge will not have their sentences extended. In exchange, the Palestinian prisoners have committed to "completely halt terrorist activity inside Israeli prisons." Both the Israelis and Palestinians were eager to negotiate an end to the hunger strike to diffuse tensions prior to the "Nakba," or catastrophe, celebrated by Israelis as the anniversary of their 1948 declaration of independence and commemorated by Palestinians with protests. 

Syria

The militant group in Syria, Al-Nusra Front, has denied responsibility for two suicide car bombs last Thursday that targeted a security complex and killed at least 55 people. The group released a statement on jihadist forums after a video had been posted claiming the organization had committed the attacks in response to regime bombings of residential areas. Al-Nusra Front said, "this video as well as the statement appearing in it are fabricated and...full of errors." Meanwhile, the Syrian government has announced the results of last week's parliamentary elections which they reported had a 51 percent voter turnout. The opposition boycotted the election they called a "farce." According to the Guardian, the results were difficult to interpret. The Syrian National Council has reelected Burhan Ghalioun of the opposition group in exile. Ghalioun has the backing of the Gulf States and France, but has been criticized for his inability to unify the opposition.

Headlines  

• After three days of intense clashes in Tripoli, the Lebanese armed forces put a stop to the fighting, which has been attributed by some as spillover from the Syria conflict.
• Air strikes in the southern Yemeni province of Abyan killed 42 people including suspected al Qaeda militants and civilians.
• Iran hanged Majid Jamili Fashi who was accused of being an Israeli Mossad agent convicted for killing a suspected Iranian nuclear scientist.
• Human Rights Watch reported that a secret prison and alleged torture site that was ordered to be closed over a year ago is still operating in Iraq.
  Read on

Virtually nobody took this week's Syrian elections seriously. It is easy to understand the nearly universal skepticism about balloting in the midst of ongoing killing in a manifestly undemocratic regime. Even when regimes have the best intentions, elections held in such difficult circumstances are rarely credible -- and few believe that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has the best intentions. A U.S. State Department spokesman declared that the balloting "bordered on the ludicrous."                                       

But this misses the point. There is a very real political logic behind the conducting of these elections -- one familiar to decades of such elections under Arab authoritarian regimes, and one which points to the coming terrain of the unfolding political struggle in Syria. The significance of the seemingly insignificant elections lies in the crucial battle over expectations about the regime's future. Put simply, the elections are meant to signal that the regime is strong, and its downfall unthinkable. Even though results have not yet been announced, the elections demonstrate that the regime is in control, both of the process and the outcomes, and the political game must be played on their terms. 

Read on

Algeria opened up the polls on Thursday for parliamentary elections. Authorities claim the elections are the most free and transparent since the country's independence from France in 1962. However, voters have been apathetic and skeptical about the elections. Diplomats say they only expect 35 percent of eligible voters to participate, with many boycotting the elections under the belief that all power lies in an informal network rooted in the security forces. Algeria was left untouched by the revolts of the 2011 Arab Spring, but the government was pressured to conduct political reforms and allowed the creation of 23 new political parties. One Algerian said, "What's the use? Parliament has no power and the lawmakers are not competent enough to change the role of their institution." The Green Alliance, a coalition of three Islamist parties, is likely to take a large share of the votes along with the two parties in the current ruling coalition, the National Liberation Front (FLN) and the National Democratic Rally (RND). The first results from the election are not expected until Friday.

Syria

Syrian state television reported two major bombings on Thursday morning outside a key military intelligence headquarters in Damascus, in what was the largest attack since the start of the uprising in March 2011. The blasts hit during the busy morning commute, with an initial explosion followed by a second larger explosion, killing an estimated 70 people according to the Syrian Ministry of Interior and injuring around 372.  No one has taken responsibility for the attacks, but Syrian state television blamed "terrorists." Conversely, the opposition accused the regime. The cease-fire brokered by international envoy Kofi Annan has been continually challenged since its declaration on April 12, and this could likely be the last straw for his six-point peace plan. According to Samir Nashar from the opposition Syrian National Council, "We expect Kofi Annan to say that his plan has hit a dead end, and that the Syrian regime should be held responsible for not stopping its operations, the killings, and its use of heavy weapons." He called for international intervention. Estimates of between 9,000 and 12,000 people have died in Syria's 14-month uprising.

Headlines  

• Bahraini activists shut down roads by burning tires on Thursday, calling for the release of women prisoners despite this week's announcement of stiffer policies against illegal protests.
• Turkey said it will not extradite Iraqi Vice President Hashemi after Interpol issued a call for his arrest. Meanwhile, his trial in absentia has been postponed.
  Read on

For most people in the world, retirement is a time of idleness and careful penny-pinching of pensions or savings. Senior Egyptian military officers, however, are not most people in the world. Upon retiring from his post, a senior officer in Egypt's military becomes a governor of a province, a manager of a town, or a head of a city neighborhood. Or he might run a factory or a company owned by the state or the military. He might even manage a seaport or a large oil company. Luckily for him, he also retains his Armed Forces pension, on top of the high salary for his new civilian job. This privileged group holds almost every high position in the state. Egypt is par excellence a republic of retired generals.

Egypt's first post-Mubarak presidential election is rapidly approaching, scheduled to begin at the end of May. Candidates of varied political stances are enthusiastically campaigning in media and touring the length of the country offering promises on everything from security to education to foreign policy. But amid this busy atmosphere, there is silence on the most sensitive and crucial question: Will any civilian winner be able to demilitarize the Egyptian state? 

Read on

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for general elections to be held on September 4, over a year early. Netanyahu's Likud party has been the most stable it has been in years, and is looking to capitalize on polls that indicate the conservative, right-wing party will win over a quarter of the seats in the Knesset. Netanyahu made the announcement on Monday after a speech Sunday night at the Likud party's annual conference in Tel Aviv. He said, "I am not interested in a year and a half long election campaign that would damage the country. I would rather have a four-month swift election campaign that would bring [the] political system to stability quickly." The cabinet agreed to the new timeline, but it must be approved by a vote in the Knesset. The expedited elections are believed to be, in part, a move to strengthen the coalition in advance of a possible second term for U.S. President Barack Obama. Additionally, they will stall the end to the controversial Tal Law, which allows ultra-orthodox men to avoid compulsory military service.

Syria

On Monday, Syrians held the first "multiparty" parliamentary elections in 50 years, according to the government, amid continued violence across the country. The Syrian government billed the elections as proof of political reform, under the slogan "Your future is in your hand." However the opposition criticized it as a farce, and the elections are not expected to change the dynamics of the 14-month conflict. Under the 50-year rule of the Baath Party, the parliament has not been an influential body, considered a "rubber stamp" for the president. The current assembly does not include any opposition members. According to officials, nearly 7,200 candidates are contesting 250 seats, and over 14 million people are eligible to vote. However, the opposition has instituted a widespread boycott and general strike. Meanwhile, clashes were reported in Deir al-Zour, as opposition forces responded to tanks with grenades. Additionally, explosions targeted major cities over the weekend leading up to the election day.

Headlines  

• A U.S. drone attack reportedly has killed a top al Qaeda leader in Yemen, Fahd al-Quso, wanted for his involvement in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole and the 2009 Christmas day bombing attempt.
• Egyptian protesters marched to the parliament to demand the release of 300 people detained in last week's Abbasiya clashes three weeks ahead of presidential elections.
• Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faced further setbacks in the second round of parliamentary elections with his supporters taking only 13 of 65 seats.
  Read on

Thousands of Egyptians marched to the defense ministry after clashes spurred by unidentified attackers killed an estimated 20 protesters in the Abbasiya neighborhood of Cairo. The violence sparked fears that the upcoming elections would be disrupted. Two leading presidential candidates suspended their campaigns out of respect for the victims. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) expressed "deep regret over the victims and those injured" in Wednesday's violence. The ruling military maintained it would not seek to postpone elections scheduled for May 23 and 24, with Field Marshal Tantawi committing to transition out of power by the end of June. Meanwhile, three main Egyptian presidential candidates, including Abdoul Moniem Aboul Fotouh, Mohamed Morsi, and Amr Moussa, were referred to the public prosecutor for allegedly breaking campaign rules. Previously disqualified candidates Hazem Saleh Abu Ismail, whose ban from the election sparked the Abbasiya protests, and Khairat el-Shater were also sent to the public prosecutor on charges of forgery and insulting the election commission, respectively.

Syria

Syrian security forces raided Aleppo University early Thursday morning killing at least four people and arresting up to 200 following a demonstration. The violence began when student supporters of President Bashar al-Assad armed with knives assaulted opposition protesters. According to the British based activist group, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a raid by government forces on student dormitories followed with reports of gunfire and tear gas. According to student activist Thaer al-Ahmed, "Some students ran to their rooms to take cover but they were followed to their rooms, beaten up, and arrested." The attack came a day after Human Rights Watch released a report accusing the Syrian government of human rights abuses directly targeting civilians. Al Jazeera's Anita McNaught confirmed the report. With the continuous deadly attacks, the United Nations admitted the truce brokered on April 12 has not held, but maintain that the U.N. observer mission is having a positive effect. The head of the observers, Major General Robert Mood, said the mission was slow to get started, but  the number of monitors on the ground will double within days.

Headlines  

• The trial of Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, who has been accused of "terrorism" and murder and has fled to Istanbul, has been postponed until May 10.
• Jordan swore in a new "conservative" cabinet under recently appoint Prime Minister Fayez Tarawneh tasked with implementing reforms.
• Libya has lifted a ban on religious political parties while clamping down on support for the former leader Muammar al-Qaddafi ahead of elections planned for June.
• The head of a Tunisian private television station has been fined for attacking moral values for broadcasting the controversial film "Persepolis."
  Read on

The green backyard at the Salafi sheikh's house in the old Mediterranean city of Alexandria was full of guests. They weren't students who came for religious lessons as usual but rather politicians appealing for the sheikh's political blessing in the presidential elections. It should be no surprise: Yasser Burhami, the ultraconservative Salafi leader and patron of al-Nour party, has become a key player in Egyptian politics. Ironically, a year ago, Burhami kept his distance from the Egyptian revolution and requested that his followers also do so. But today, he is deeply immersed in political strategy and tactics as he struggles to navigate the new terrain confronting the Salafi movement.

The Salafi movement's strategy has become clearer with its surprising decision to endorse the Islamist candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh for Egypt's presidency. This was not an obvious call. The decision to choose Aboul Fotouh over the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohamed Morsi or other possible contenders took weeks of negotiations and discussions within al-Dawa al-Salafiyya (the Salafi Call), the main political Salafi force in Egypt, and its political arm, al-Nour party. That decision has once again reshuffled Egypt's political cards -- and offered new insight into where the Salafi movement is headed.

Read on

In 1975, a combination of malevolent and misguided governments managed to enshrine in a United Nations General Assembly resolution the defamatory accusation that Zionism is racism. That libel was rescinded by the General Assembly in 1991, the only time that one of its resolutions was revoked.

In 2012, having neutralized American opposition to its efforts to establish -- through the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank -- irreversible "facts on the ground" that will prevent the emergence of a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, while at the same time denying Israeli citizenship to the millions of Palestinian residents of the occupied territories, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has succeeded in reviving the calumny that Zionism is racism, something anti-Semites and Israel's enemies had been unable to do.

Read on

Prime Minister Awn Shawkat al-Khasawneh shocked Jordan on Thursday by suddenly resigning. Jordanian prime ministers typically come and go at the discretion of the king. They are often the last to know of their fate, and passively accept their dismissals until the next time their services might be needed. Khasawneh violated political tradition by submitting his resignation while abroad in Turkey, through one of his ministers, with a language devoid of the traditional praise and reverence. Jordanian monarchs are not accustomed to being curtly dismissed by their hand-chosen government officials.

The king's discomfort with this perceived disrespect, and concern that it might become a rallying point for the opposition, was palpable. He responded with an aggrieved letter that blamed the premier for slowing down the process of reform. The palace hinted that Khasawneh was the obstacle to holding early parliamentary elections because he preferred postponing the elections to 2013. A massive media campaign denouncing the former prime minister has likely been inspired by the palace, which clearly hopes to prevent the opposition from exploiting Khasawneh's resignation to blame the king for the absence of meaningful reform. It will now fall on the government of the conservative new Prime Minister Fayez Tarawnah to deliver on these reforms... or, more likely, to oversee their continuing failure.

Read on

An estimated 14 people were killed and 18 injured in two explosions and a shooting in the mainly Sunni village of Abu Garma, which is located in the volatile Iraqi province of Diyala. According to an Iraqi interior ministry official, a suicide car bomb exploded outside a busy cafe late Thursday, followed closely by a second bombing minutes afterward, killing up to 10 people. Shortly after the bombings, a woman and her three children were attacked and killed by a gunman. The attacks may have been sectarian in nature, as according to Lieutenant-Colonel Ahmed al-Karkhi, "Most of those killed in the two attacks were Shia, and the family killed was Sunni."

Syria

Escalation of violence in Syria has prompted the opposition to demand stronger international action. Meanwhile, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said the Syrian government is "in contravention" of the negotiated peace plan. The remarks came a day after activists reported that an explosion in Hama killed up to 70 people. The Syrian government conversely stated the blast was caused by armed terrorists in a bomb factory resulting in the deaths of 16 people. The Syrian regime and opposition traded blame for the explosion as well as the continued violence, which has defied the six-point peace plan brokered by U.N. and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan. There were two additional explosions reported in the capital of Damascus on Friday and clashes continued in the suburb of Douma. There are currently 15 monitors on the ground from the United Nations' observer mission which is set to expand to 300. However, the Security Council is considering tougher actions. The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, is proposing increased sanctions, and France is calling for a U.N. Chapter 7 resolution which would allow for the use of force if there hasn't been a noticeable commitment to the peace plan by May 5.

Headlines  

• Libya's National Transitional Council dismissed Prime Minister Abdul Rahim al-Keib and the cabinet for incompetence, bringing into question elections scheduled for June.
• Fayez al-Tarawneh will be Jordan's new prime minister after Awn Khasawneh's surprising resignation. The latter was the third person holding the office to step down in the past 18 months.
• The Palestinian Authority Communications Minister, Mashour Abu Daqa, has resigned over suppression of opposition media and recent arrests of journalists and activists.
• Al Qaeda linked militants blew up an oil pipeline in the eastern Yemeni province of Shabwa in retaliation for the killing of an al Qaeda leader in the third such attack in a month.
  Read on

Jordan's Prime Minister Awn al-Khaswaneh submitted his resignation today after less than a year in office. His surprising move reportedly came in protest over the refusal of the Royal Court to allow meaningful political reforms. The last straw, it appears, was the disappointing new election law which failed to respond to long-standing complaints by political activists, parties, and outside analysts. Less than a week ago, I told the Jordanian newspaper al-Ghad that I was deeply worried about the kingdom's stability because of its failure to enact any serious political or economic reform or to engage seriously with a growing wave of protest and unrest. The sudden resignation of the respected jurist should draw renewed attention to Jordan's political stability -- and raise important questions about its willingness and ability to reform.

The Middle East Channel has been keeping a close eye on Jordan's ongoing political problems:

"The Implications of Jordan's New Election Law" -- Curtis Ryan, April 13, 2012
"Identity and Corruption in Jordanian Politics" -- Curtis Ryan, February 9, 2012
"Just What Does Jordan's King Abdullah Understand" -- Laurie Brand and Fayyaz Hammad, January 17, 2012
"Jordan's Fictional Reforms" -- Sean Yom, November 9, 2011
"Fragile Hopes for Jordan's New Prime Minister" -- Christine Satkowski, October 24, 2011

We will have more soon on the unfolding developments in Jordan.

In an interview with Israeli newspaper Haaretz,  Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, head of the IDF, said he does not think Iran will build nuclear weapons. He believes that Iran is undecided, saying it "is going step by step to the place where it will be able to decide whether to manufacture a nuclear bomb. It hasn't decided to go the extra mile." His cautious statements contrast with the dramatic rhetoric of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While Gantz said he believes Iran's leadership is comprised of rational people, in an interview with CNN, Netanyahu said he wasn't willing to bet "the security of the world on Iran's rational behavior." Gantz added that these diplomatic efforts, in addition to the heavy application of international sanctions on Iran, are "beginning to bear fruit." Netanyahu concurs that sanctions are having an impact on the Iranian economy. However, he believes they have failed to sufficiently slow down or stop the Iranian nuclear aspirations. Iran met with the United States and five world powers this month for negotiations on its nuclear program, and is scheduled for a second meeting in late May. Tehran claims its nuclear program is for civilian purposes only. However, a U.N. International Atomic Energy report showed evidence that Iran is covertly working to obtain nuclear weapons capabilities.

Syria

United Nations and Arab League envoy Kofi Annan briefed the U.N. Security Council Tuesday, remarking that the situation in Syria is "bleak." Annan voiced concern over reports that Syrian forces attack towns after U.N. observers depart. According to activists, between 30 and 50 people were killed during an assault in the Arbaeen neighborhood of Hama after U.N. monitors left the city. However, Annan cited progress in Homs, saying "violence has dropped significantly in response to the presence of a very small number of observers." The briefing came after Annan's spokesman, Ahmad Fawzi, reported on U.N. Television that "people who approach the observers may be approached by security forces or Syrian army and harassed or arrested or even worse, perhaps killed." He added that despite promises, the Syrian government had not withdrawn troops and heavy weapons from populated areas as dictated in Annan's six-point peace plan. Meanwhile, shelling has continued in the Damascus suburb of Douma for the second straight day. The United Nations Security Council approved an expansion of the U.N. observer mission to 300 monitors, however according to Herve Ladsous, the under-secretary general for peacekeeping, the deployment was coming along slowly. He predicts that only 100 additional monitors will be in place by the end of May.

Headlines  

• Five people died in clashes in eastern Turkey between Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Turkish security forces.
• Four Bahrain police officers were injured in a bomb blast during clashes between security forces and protesters.
• Libya's ruling National Transitional Council passed legislation banning political parties built "on the "basis of regional, tribal, or religious affiliation."
  Read on

Egypt's Insurance and Social Affairs Ministry rejected the applications of eight United States-based civil society organizations for licenses to operate in the country. According to Egyptian state media, the requests were denied on the grounds that their work would violate Egyptian sovereignty. The groups include the Carter Center, which has been active in Egyptian election monitoring; Coptic Orphans, a Christian group; and Seeds of Peace, an organization that gathers Egyptian, Jordanian, Palestinian, and Israeli youth together at a camp in Maine. The lawyer for Coptic Orphans, Negad al-Borai said, "I don't understand how a charity group like the Coptic Orphans, which works with over 35 churches in Egypt to provide medical and social aid, was rejected." The decision came after a December 2011 government crackdown on non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the subsequent arrest of several U.S. NGO workers, which severely strained diplomatic relations between the two countries. The rejection of the applications occured the same day that France denied an  Egyptian request to issue international arrest warrants for 15 employees of U.S.-based NGOs, established in Egypt, who no longer reside in the country. Tensions between the United States and Egypt have recently abated, but human rights activists are concerned that recent actions taken by the Egyptian government imply a renewed crackdown.

Syria

Syrian forces have reportedly returned in full force after the United Nations observers leave beleaguered towns and cities. According to the opposition Local Coordination Committees, 50 people were killed during a tank and shelling assault on Hama after monitors departed the city. The observer mission also reportedly visited Homs, after previously being denied access, as well Zabadani and opposition strongholds near the capital of Damascus, where they encountered thousands of protesters calling for the end to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Meanwhile, Syrian pro-government television reported a car bombing in Damascus Tuesday that killed one Syria intelligence officer and wounded three other people. Syria's Ikhbaria television blamed the attack on "armed terrorists" but no one has claimed responsibility. The recent dramatic rise in violence is testing Kofi Annan's peace plan and the U.N. observer mission, which is set to expand to 300 monitors.

Headlines  

• The head of Egypt's ruling military council ratified a law barring anyone who held high office under the Mubarak regime from presidency, effectively disqualifying Ahmed Shafiq.
• Israel legalized three West Bank settlements which Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas considered a response to last week's letter laying out preconditions for peace talks.
• Iran said it had "sustained no damage" after cyber attacks on the oil ministry and national oil company.
• Iraq has called back its ambassador to Turkey after days of antagonistic exchanges. 
  Read on