Critics are right to interpret the decision by the government of Egyptian Prime Minister Kamal al-Ganzouri -- to refer 43 pro-democracy activists, including 19 Americans, to trial before a criminal court, where they will be charged with distributing illegal foreign funds "with the intention of destabilizing Egypt's national security" -- as a blatant attempt to intimidate pro-democracy forces in the country.

Nor can there be the slightest doubt that Egypt's ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) is directly behind the attempt. The evidence is twofold. None of the three interim cabinets that have taken office since the SCAF assumed power in February 2011 has been able to undertake policy initiatives in any public sphere without military approval. Additionally, no mere civilian would be allowed to jeopardize United States military assistance worth $1.3 billion annually on his or her own initiative, as Minister of International Cooperation Fayza Abul-Naga has seemingly done.

Read on

A Syrian student, living in Malaysian, chants slogans against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad during a protest rally outside the Syrian embassy in Kuala Lumput on February 10, 2012. More than 80 people were killed in Syria on February 9, 2012, most of them in a relentless blitz on the city of Homs, an attack US President Barack Obama decried as an 'outrageous bloodshed' (SAEED KHAN/AFP/Getty Images).

Two explosions target Syrian security compounds in Aleppo

Two explosions have hit security compounds in Syria's second largest city, Aleppo, which has largely supported the government and has seen only occasional protests. According to the Health Ministry, 25 people were killed and 175 injured -- including soldiers and civilians. Syrian state television has accused armed "terrorists" for the blasts, while activists blamed the government for planting the bombs in efforts to discredit the opposition. One of the bombs hit the Military Intelligence Directorate, while the other exploded outside a police headquarters. The blasts are part of a string of bombings the regime has blamed on "terrorists," however the opposition has denied responsibility. In Turkey, Captain Ammar al-Wawi, a spokesman for the Free Syria Army, blamed the regime of Bashar al-Assad for staging the blasts, saying civilians would not have had the capability of approaching such highly guarded security complexes. He said, "The regime is playing a well-known game, seeking to distract the world's attention from the massacres in Homs." In Homs, the shelling, which has been consistent for the better part of the past week, reportedly stopped, but tanks have massed outside opposition neighborhoods and sealed off the southeastern suburb of Baba Amr. As the international community continues to search to develop a coordinated plan to end the violence in Syria, U.S. President Barack Obama met with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and said, "We both have a great interest in ending the outrageous bloodshed that we've seen and see a transition from the current government that has been assaulting its people."

Headlines  

• Israel reported it had run successful tests, along with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, of the Arrow missile defense system.
• In Jordan, crowds of protesters, who have largely supported the monarchy, are calling for elections and reform. Meanwhile, former intelligence head al-Dahabi is being charged with corruption.
• The biggest car plant in North Africa was officially opened by Renault in Melloussa, a small town near Tangiers in Morocco.
• After being closed for a year throughout the conflict, Libya's stock exchange is looking to resume trading operations by the end of February.
• India reportedly surpassed China as the number one customer for Iranian petroleum and is sending a delegation to Iran to exploit opportunities opened up with U.S. and European sanctions.
  Read on

Islamist movements did not start Yemen's revolution, but they have loomed large over its fate. Tawakkol Karman, an ex-member of Islah, a coalition party that includes Yemen's Muslim Brotherhood, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2011 for her tireless political campaigning. Backers of outgoing President Ali Abdullah Saleh warned of the inexorable rise of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), even after the killing of ideologue Anwar al-Awlaki by a U.S. drone.

But as in much of the Arab world, the Yemeni revolution has presented both opportunities and challenges to its Islamists. At least five different Islamist trends have played important roles in the unfolding events -- and some have fared better than others. Those struggling to help Yemen's political transition must recognize the diversity and internal struggles among these Islamist trends, and be prepared to engage with them as part of the country's political landscape.

Read on

Thursday's parliamentary elections in Kuwait reflected the intense drama unfolding in the country over the last four months -- youth-led street protests, corruption charges that implicated 13 Members of Parliament (MPs), the November storming of the parliament to protest corruption, the dissolution of parliament by the emir, and the resignation of the embattled prime minister. The election campaign was marked by vitriolic rhetoric and violence. And the results empowered a loose Islamist-tribal coalition of opposition candidates which disappointed liberals and set the stage for continued political fireworks in the coming months. Despondent moderates surveying the outcome repeatedly complained that, "nobody is representing the middle."

Read on

Russian Foreign Minister arrives in Damascus as attacks continue in Homs

Syrian forces have continued the bombardment of Homs, where around 95 people were reportedly killed on Monday. The surge has been concentrated in the Baba Amro district where one activist noted: "There is no electricity and all communication with the neighborhood has been cut." For its part, Syrian state television reported security forces are fighting "terrorists," "tens" of whom were killed in addition to six soldiers. Meanwhile, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Damascus to meet with President Bashar al-Assad to pressure the government to implement democratic reforms. The visit has come after the country joined China in vetoing a U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at halting Syrian violence that was approved by the council's 13 other members. The United States with western allies including France, Britain, and Germany are looking to alternatives outside of the United Nations, however maintaining they will avoid military intervention. Turkey, which has been highly critical of the Syrian regime, says it will develop a new initiative, and is planning to meet with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the United States on Wednesday. The United States closed its embassy in Syria on Monday and recalled all staff due to increased security concerns.

Headlines  

• U.S. President Barack Obama signed an order to implement new sanctions passed in December on Iran, targeting its central bank and financial institutions -- and aiming to quell nuclear ambitions.
• Israel condemned the Hamas and Fatah reconciliation while the U.S. said it is waiting for more details. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said the unity deal must not stop peace talks.
• Egypt's presidential candidates can start registering in March, one month earlier than expected.
• Iran's parliament summoned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for questioning over accusations including mismanagement of the economy in the first such summons since 1979.
• Ministers from Iraq's Sunni-backed Iraqqiya bloc have returned to the cabinet, ending a boycott begun after Prime Minister Maliki issued charges against Vice President Hashemi.
  Read on

Violence continues in Egypt as thousands march in protest

Three people were killed in Egypt in clashes with Central Security Forces as protests continued over Wednesday's deadly football riots. Two protesters were reported killed by live fire in the city of Suez, while one death was reported in Cairo from shotgun fire as police attempted to break up a crowd storming the interior ministry. An additional 1,482 people were reportedly injured in Cairo (and 207 in Suez), mostly wounded by tear gas, pellets, and rubber bullets. Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets Thursday, concentrating in Tahrir Square and in front of the ministry of interior where people demanded retribution for the nearly 75 people who were killed when riots broke out after a football game in Port Said. The protesters accused the military rulers of complicity and demanded answers for why the security forces did not control the situation or prevent the killings. Kamal Ganzouri, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces appointed prime minister, said Port Said's senior security chiefs were suspended, the governor resigned, and the Egyptian football federation's board was removed. A senior Muslim Brotherhood member of parliament presented, in an emergency session, signatures of 120 lawmakers calling for charges against the interior minister and a panel was designed for his questioning.

Headlines  

• Kuwait's Islamist led opposition won the majority in parliamentary elections -- with no seats going to women.
• The latest U.N. Security Council draft resolution on Syria that dropped the call for Assad to step down, but which advocates a power transfer, is still being met with Russian opposition.
• Ayatollah Khamenei said threats on Iran would "harm America" after an opinion piece reported U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes there is a "strong likelihood" of an Israeli attack.
• Iran launched its third satellite since 2009, raising concerns that the space program could be used to develop ballistic missiles to carry nuclear warheads.
• Turkish former military chief Gen. Ilker Basbug has been charged with a terrorist plot to overthrow the government and could face life imprisonment without parole.
  Read on

When safety regulation makes automobiles safer, drivers (though obviously not all of them) are tempted to drive more recklessly, creating partially or completely offsetting effects on the overall level of safety. Economists have entertained this idea since it was first introduced by Sam Peltzman in the 1970s, some have rejected it while others, some of whom relied on data from NASCAR races, validated it. The "Peltzman effect" was also tested during the Cold War and more broadly in the realm of strategic affairs. Specifically, scholars have sought to understand the effect of the added perceived security a state acquires from nuclear weapons on its behavior in world politics.

Let us assume for a moment that Iran acquires a nuclear weapons capability (which is anything but inevitable given the many technical and political unknowns), a "nuclear seat belt or air bag" so to speak, will it behave like a more reckless driver? It is no surprise that analysts have had disagreements on this issue, some strong, others more nuanced. Most analysts however believe that a nuclear Iran -- whether overtly nuclear-armed or capable of producing weapons quickly -- would present an even greater challenge to Western interests and regional security than it does today, more aggressively protecting its strategic interests, projecting its power, pursuing its ideological ambitions, and meddling in the politics and security of its neighbors. A nuclear Iran could look more like Pakistan, a country that, after its 1998 nuclear tests, was feeling more confident on the regional and international stage and was arguably taking more risks in its policies toward its historical rival, India.

Read on

IAEA inspectors cite "good" talks in Iran and plan future trips

After a three-day trip to Iran, the United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) nuclear inspectors have returned citing "good" talks. While they said the six-member IAEA mission was positive they reported that there is still more work to do and hope to return to Iran for further discussion on the country's contested nuclear development program. According to the Iranian Fars News Agency both sides had "reached agreement on the continuation of these talks." Iran has been accused of attempting to cultivate nuclear weapons technology, concerns which were heightened after an IAEA report released last November -- though Iran maintains that the program is strictly for energy generation. The IAEA inspectors did not visit any nuclear facilities, but according to Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi:  "We were ready to show them our nuclear facilities, but they didn't ask for it." As tensions have escalated over increasing international sanctions, specifically from the United States and the European Union, Iran was attempting to be accommodating, even offering for the IAEA team to extend the mission. Western diplomats remain concerned that Iran is using dialogue as a means of stalling, but optimism remains for a diplomatic solution.

Headlines        

• After fierce fighting in Damascus's suburbs, the U.N. Security Council debated a draft resolution on Syria with Russia maintaining it will block military intervention or forced regime change.
• Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood supporters stopped the advance of anti-military protesters on parliament calling for the transfer to civilian power, spurring violent clashes.
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed a large victory in the Likud party primaries and is considering advancing elections to take place before U.S. elections in November.
• The 25 Chinese workers kidnapped by Bedouins in Sinai were released but raised concerns over deteriorating security in the region since the fall of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
  Read on

The U.N. Security Council meets to discuss Syria after an upsurge in violence

The United Nations Security Council is meeting today to debate a draft resolution aimed to quell violence in Syria. At the same time, the Syrian opposition has declared today a "day of mourning and anger" after nearly 100 people were killed on Monday in a surge of regime violence and clashes mostly in the Homs province. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, leaders of the Arab League, and British and French foreign ministers have traveled to New York in support of the resolution presented by Morocco that calls for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to agree to a ceasefire and resign prior to negotiations. Russia opposes the resolution, instead advocating for talks without preconditions. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov criticized the proposal saying it "will not lead to a search for comprise" and is a "path to civil war." U.S. White House spokesman Jay Carney said that governments, when making their decisions, must take into account that "The regime has lost control of the country" and "Assad's fall is inevitable." The resolution does not include reference to military intervention, which Russia said it would veto, but does state that the Security Council could "adopt further measures" if Assad does not comply within 15 days.

Headlines  

• Egypt's military council announced the rules for what will be the first presidential election since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, but was criticized for bypassing the parliament.
• A U.S. drone air strike killed at least 12 al Qaeda militants in Yemen in one of the biggest assaults on leaders within the organization there.
• Three U.S. pro-democracy NGO workers that have been prevented from leaving Egypt have sought refuge at the U.S. embassy as tensions between the two countries rise over the case.
• Two Libyan dissidents are suing a former officer for the MI6, the British Secret Intelligence Service, for complicity in their abduction and torture by Qaddafi's secret police.
• Israel's Likud party began voting in its primaries which Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to win over extreme right candidate, Moshe Feiglin.
• About 35 Ethiopian Christians are facing deportation from Saudi Arabia for "illicit mingling" after being arrested in a private home where they had gathered to pray prior to Christmas.
  Read on

Clashes between Syrian regime and opposition forces near center of Damascus

The Syrian army has reportedly regained control over some eastern Damascus suburbs that have seen large anti-government protests. The Free Syria Army had recently moved in toward the capital after hitherto only holding a strong provincial presence in Homs, Hama, and Deraa. According to activists a major troop and tank deployment began on Saturday and came within 3 miles of the center of Damascus by Sunday, prompting an activist to refer to the situation as "urban war" and others to say it is the fiercest fighting seen around the capital to date in the 10-month uprising. Fighting also raged over the weekend in both the northern and southern provinces resulting in the deaths of up to 80 people. Additionally, there were over 50 military funerals over the weekend held for regime security forces killed in the conflict. The upsurge in violence comes a day after the Arab League announced a suspension of their recently extended observer mission, a decision prompted when the Syrian government "chose the option of escalation." Russia condemned the decision saying, "We would like to know why they are treating such a useful instrument this way." Arab League representatives will meet with the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday seeking support for the Arab peace plan. Russia however opposes the plan, saying the demand for President Bashar al-Assad to step down is "absolutely unforgiveable" and may use its veto to block a resolution.

Headlines  

• Iraqi officials have expressed "outrage" over U.S. drone surveillance used to protect U.S. personnel and property, calling it an affront to Iraqi sovereignty.
• Egypt's military rulers will meet with an advisory council to consider a power transfer earlier than the stated June deadline. Meanwhile, voting began for the Shura Council, the upper house of parliament.
• Yemen's outgoing President Ali Abdullah Saleh has arrived with immunity in the United States for medical treatment, but has vowed to return to Yemen for the swearing in of the new president.
• A U.N. IAEA delegation arrived in Iran Sunday to begin a three-day investigation into alleged nuclear weapon development.
• Iraq's Sunni Iraqiyya bloc has ended its boycott on parliament spurred by the arrest warrant issued for Vice President Hashemi, making room for political talks and easing tensions.
• Hamas political head Khaled Meshaal held talks with Jordanian King Abdullah in his first official visit since the party's leadership was expelled in 1999.
  Read on

Is there any hope for Yemen's political transition? Is Egypt on the way to a new revolution? And has the Arab Spring really, really vindicated neoconservativism? Those are only a few of the topics that I take up today in the second exciting episode of Abu Aardvark's MEC Video Blog. All that, and some great guest appearances, which I won't spoil here. Enjoy!

This photo of the "sleeping salafi" from the opening session of Egypt's new Parliament burned like wildfire through the Twitter feeds and Facebook pages of my Arab, Egyptian and Middle East watcher friends. The overwhelming tone of the comments was high snark, as liberals fell over themselves snickering at the dozing beards. The image played to every prejudice which has greeted this new wave of salafi Islamists. 

There's just one problem.  The iconic figure in the lower right corner of the photo wasn't sleeping. He's blind.  

Dr. Wageeh el-Sheemy is a university professor and new parliamentarian from the Salafi al-Nour Party. As the We Are All Khaled Said page explained yesterday, el-Sheemy is "the first blind person to become member of the Egyptian parliament thanks to the #Jan25 Revolution. In fact, he is the first ever disabled member of the Egyptian parliament." That's really impressive, and a great story. Congratulations to Dr. El-Sheemy -- and to the Nour Party for putting him forward as a successful candidate. 

It should also be a lesson to all. For all the legitimate concerns about where the newly empowered salafi trend will take Egypt -- and there are many --  it is far too easy for people to leap to unwarranted conclusions about them. In the coming days, it will be useful for all Egyptians, and those watching Egypt, to take a breath before rushing to judgement.  

We can't help you with that guy in the third row though...

Egyptian revolution anniversary marked by celebrations and protests

Egyptian youth activists planned a sit-in in Tahrir Square demanding a transfer to civilian rule and vowing to remain in the square in Cairo until the military council, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, yields power. They were part of the crowds amassed -- some in protest and some in celebration -- throughout Egypt on January 25, and tens of thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square to mark the one-year anniversary of the revolution that led to the toppling of former President Hosni Mubarak. Activists protested saying the ruling military has failed to realize the revolution's demands, claiming nothing has changed since Mubarak. Attiya Mohammed Attiya, a protester present in Tahrir said, "I am here for a second revolution. The military council is made of remnants of the Mubarak regime. We will only succeed when we remove them from power." There were no police or troops posted at Tahrir Square over concerns that their presence would provoke violence. While no major clashes were reported, events were not without tension, as the Muslim Brotherhood and anti-military protesters ran competing soundstages.

Headlines  

• The Arab League mission in Syria continued without Gulf observers as security forces were deployed to Douma, a Damascus suburb plagued with clashes.
• Two bomb attacks killed 13 people in Iraq including two policemen and their families in their home south of Baghdad.
• China criticized the European Union's ban on Iranian oil as "not constructive." Meanwhile, Iranian legislators are drafting a bill that would preemptively cut off oil exports to Europe.
• The Syrian Arab Red Crescent's vice president, Abdulrazak Jbeiro, was shot and killed while driving from Damascus to Idlib, however the "circumstances are still unclear."
• Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said "exploratory talks" have come to an end as the deadline for border proposals expires today.

Daily Snapshot

CAIRO, EGYPT -- Egyptian people continue to demonstrate in Tahrir Square on January 26, 2012 in Cairo, Egypt. Tens of thousands of Egyptian people gathered yesterday to celebrate the anniversary of the start of the uprising which ended President Hosni Mubaraks rule (Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images). 

Arguments & Analysis

'Can Israel stop Iran's nuke effort?' (Karl Vick, Time)

"Cordesman reckons Israel probably has enough aircraft and enough range to do serious damage to 10 to 12 of Iran's atomic facilities. But damaged labs can be rebuilt, he notes, and Iran has announced plans for 10 new enrichment sites-further dispersing later-generation centrifuges in places smaller, harder to locate and easier to harden. The issue, Cordesman says, is not simply capability but consequences. "If anyone tells you this is sort of binary, either ‘Yeah, they can do it' or ‘Oh, no, they can't,' they don't know what they're talking about," he says. "Israel is going to act strategically. It's going to look at the political outcome of what it says and does, not simply measure this in terms of some computer game and what the immediate tactical impact is.""

'January 25th and the Egypt the revolution has made' (Steven A. Cook, Foreign Affairs)

"This perverse political order in which institutions are rigged to serve the elite remains intact. Yet how to finally finish the job? The instigators of the uprising have taken a principled stand against the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and its leader, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, because they believe the military is a counterrevolutionary force. But the activists' permanent revolution has had diminishing returns. They may have started the revolt, but as the first phase of Egypt's transition comes to a close they are finding themselves marginalized." 

'The seasonal effects of an Arab Spring' (Imad Mansour, Open Democracy)

"Iranian and Turkish messages about their important positions in a transitioning Arab system come from two different backgrounds and offer varied promises in terms of policy; they both might be hard-pressed to find an all-attentive Arab audience. But then for decision makers, the external and domestic policy domains are intricately joined; and so it might be that a significant part of such messages is really intended for a receiving domestic audience. It remains to be better analyzed, but foreign policy posturing has been well invested domestically in power balancing (e.g. among the various political actors) and/or electoral purposes."