Wednesday, May 16, 2012 - 10:31 AM

What should you be reading about the politics of today's Middle East, beyond (of course) the outstanding daily content on the Middle East Channel and the news and analysis featured in the MEC Daily Brief? The Middle East Channel Editor's Reader -- or, "Abu Aardvark's guide to good reads on the Middle East" -- is a new regular feature which will highlight what I consider to be the best of the academic journal articles, long-form magazine articles, policy reports and books which come across my desktop.
The MEC Editor's Reader will reflect what I'm actually reading and think merits your attention. Some weeks that might mean an extended book review, others a selection of journal articles. I may write about a ten year old book if it's what I'm currently reading, or I may write about forthcoming academic research. I will particularly highlight publications by the talented academic members of the Project on Middle East Political Science, which I direct, but I will try to not neglect writers from other fields. I can't promise to even try to be comprehensive -- which you'd thank me for if you actually saw my desktop. This will be a selective guide to work I found interesting for some reason, reflecting my own ideosyncratic interests and reading habits. But please do send me your articles and books if you want me to consider them. And with that, welcome to...
The Middle East Channel Editor's Reader #1 (May 16, 2012)
My Bookshelf:
The Rise and Fall of Arab Presidents for Life, by Roger Owen. (Harvard University Press 2012).
Harvard historian Roger Owen had almost completed a book on "Arab Presidents for Life" in late 2010, just as several of those Presidents suddenly faced mortal challenges. Rather than simply insert "and Fall" into the title, Owen chose to integrate the new developments into a thoughtful and incisive evaluation of Arab political authoritarianism in all its components. Owen points out the many ways in which Arab Presidents and Kings imitated one another, with Presidential sons following - or attempting to follow - their fathers, and all relying on extensive security services and webs of patronage. His analysis of the personalization of power challenges recent efforts to distinguish Arab monarchies from their Presidential counterparts, and lays bare the internal logic of such personalized security states. As an historian, Owen is sensitive, and admirably transparent, about the limits of our knowledge about the inner workings of these regimes. But his brief discussions of each country effectively convey both the commonalities and differences across the cases. Owen's highly readable book serves as a fitting requiem for a system of rule which long seemed immovable, has now been exposed in all of its flawed brutality, but seems likely to adapt to new structural conditions rather than simply fade away.
My PDF Reader:
Voting for Change: The Pitfalls and Possibilities of First Elections in Arab Transitions, by Ellen Lust (Brookings Doha). Yale University Political Scientist Ellen Lust, who has written widely on political parties and elections in authoritarian Arab regimes, lays out the challenges and opportunities in the foundational elections in Egypt, Tunisia and beyond. First elections, she warns, should be treated differently from subsequent elections, with different objectives and obstacles, with priority given to building a strong democratic system and addressing the fears and uncertainty which plague any transition rather than on managing a particular political outcome. Lust wrote about Syria's recent pre-transitional Parliamentary election for the MEC here.
The Rise of Islamist Actors: Formulating a Strategy for Engagement, by Quinn Mecham (POMED). Middlebury College Political Scientist and former State Department Policy Planning staffer Quinn Mecham argues for a more systematic strategy for engagement with Islamist political parties. It should surprise nobody that Islamist parties do well in Arab elections or more open political arenas. Mecham expertly lays out the benefits and risks of engagement, and urges the U.S. to engage broadly in order to build understanding on both sides ---but to neither compromise on core value commitments or to exaggerate their likely power.
Tunisia's Transition and the Twin Tolerations, by Alfred Stepan (Journal of Democracy). Columbia University Political Scientist Alfred Stepan, one of the leading figures in the study of democratic transitions globally, examines the relatively successful Tunisian experience since 2011. "With secularists agreeing that Islamists could participate fully in democratic politics, and Islamists agreeing that popular sovereignty is the only source of legitimacy," he writes, Tunisia has been able to avoid the violence and polarization found in some other cases. Egyptians and others should take note.
Networks of Third-Party Interveners and Civil War Duration. Asyegul Aydin and Patrick Regan (European Journal of International Relations, 2011). What is the likely impact of military assistance to the opposition on the duration of Syria's civil war? Aydin and Regan's 2011 article doesn't talk about Syria directly, but it does focus on the logic and historical record of external interventions in such conflicts. The network analysis suggests that such interventions are likely to increase civil war duration and encourage opportunistic, rent-seeking behavior among the combatants unless there is a high degree of unity of purpose and shared interest among the intervening parties. Well worth a read, even if you have a low tolerance for math, for trying to think through the likely implications of supporting armed opposition in Syria.
... and don't miss these from the Project on Middle East Political Science:
Jordan, Forever on the Brink. Collection of essays on the shortcomings of political reform and growing instability in Jordan.
Breaking Bahrain. Collection of essays on the political stalemate in Bahrain.
Thursday, April 26, 2012 - 9:50 AM

Jordan's Prime Minister Awn al-Khaswaneh submitted his
resignation today after less than a year in office. His surprising move reportedly
came in protest over the refusal of the Royal Court to allow
meaningful political reforms. The last straw, it appears, was the
disappointing new election law which failed to respond to long-standing
complaints by political activists, parties, and outside analysts. Less than a
week ago, I told the Jordanian newspaper al-Ghad
that I was deeply worried about the kingdom's stability because of its failure
to enact any serious political or economic reform or to engage seriously with a
growing wave of protest and unrest. The sudden resignation of the respected
jurist should draw renewed attention to Jordan's political stability -- and
raise important questions about its willingness and ability to reform.
The Middle East Channel has been keeping a close eye on Jordan's ongoing
political problems:
"The
Implications of Jordan's New Election Law" -- Curtis Ryan, April 13, 2012
"Identity
and Corruption in Jordanian Politics" -- Curtis Ryan, February 9, 2012
"Just
What Does Jordan's King Abdullah Understand" -- Laurie Brand and
Fayyaz Hammad, January 17, 2012
"Jordan's
Fictional Reforms" -- Sean Yom, November 9, 2011
"Fragile
Hopes for Jordan's New Prime Minister" -- Christine Satkowski, October
24, 2011
We will have more soon on the unfolding developments in Jordan.
KHALIL MAZRAAWI/AFP/GettyImages
Wednesday, April 18, 2012 - 12:25 PM
On April 17, 2012, M. Cherif Bassiouni, international Arab legal expert and Chairman of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry joined Middle East Channel editor Marc Lynch for a short conversation at George Washington University's Institute for Middle East Studies. Among the topics covered: Bahrain's response to the BICI recommendations, former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh's immunity deal, a war crimes tribunal for Syria...and why Muammar al-Qaddafi's sex addiction will make it difficult to convict Saif al-Islam.
Monday, February 27, 2012 - 5:20 PM

The escalating bloodshed in Syria has rapidly become the center of regional and international attention. While the United States and its allies struggle to find ways to effectively help the Syrian people, the body count mounts and the prospects of a negotiated transition grow dim. Meanwhile, a growing chorus calls for a military intervention to protect Syrian civilians or to accelerate the fall of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The response to the Syrian crisis is shaped by its unique combination of humanitarian crisis and strategic significance. The horrifying death toll and the political failures of the Syrian regime are real, urgent, and undeniable. So are the strategic stakes of a potential regime change in a long-time adversary of the United States and its allies, and the key Arab ally of Iran. The Syrian crisis has revealed and exacerbated the profound tension between the narrative of "Resistance" which has long shaped regional discourse and the narrative of the Arab uprisings.
Our new POMEPS briefing, "The Syria Crisis" -- to which this post is the introduction -- surveys the issues posed by the ongoing struggle in Syria. The the ninth in our Arab Uprising Briefing series, "The Syrian Crisis" collects recent analysis and commentary from the Middle East Channel on these urgent questions.
BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty Images
Friday, February 17, 2012 - 10:40 AM
Egyptian journalist Ashraf Khalil joins me this week on Abu Aardvark's Middle East Channel Editor's Video Blog to discuss his new book Liberation Square and the state of the Egyptian revolution. Tune in to see us talk about how Egypt has changed in the year since the fall of Hosni Mubarak and the prospects for Egyptian protestors. And don't miss the special bonus appearance of a certain psychedelic former Arab leader!
Friday, February 10, 2012 - 10:49 AM
Welcome to
Episode 4 of Abu Aardvark's Middle East Channel Video Blog, guest starring
Timothy Mitchell of Columbia University. In this week's installment, I talk
about why arming
the Free Syrian Army is a dangerous option and weigh in on the standoff
between the Egyptian government and the United States over democracy NGOs. The
heart of the episode, though, is a ten-minute conversation between Mitchell and
me about his new book, Carbon
Democracy.
It's a special treat to be able to present the conversation with Mitchell, who
is one of the most innovative and original minds in academic Middle East
Studies. His earlier books, Colonizing
Egypt and Rule of Experts, were path
breaking intellectual works that reshaped entire disciplines. Carbon Democracy, selected as one of The
Middle East Channel's Top
Five Books on the Middle East for 2011, offers a radical new reading of how
coal and oil have shaped not only the Middle East but also Western democracy,
the international system, and the discipline of economics. You can watch
Mitchell and me talk about his book, about the meaning of an "oil
crisis," and about how Middle East Studies has responded to the Arab
uprisings. If you enjoy the discussion, let us know -- we'd like to do more of
this kind of extended conversation on the Video Blog.
I hope you enjoy the show!
Thursday, February 2, 2012 - 8:37 PM
Welcome back to Episode 3 of Abu Aardvark's
MEC Video Blog! In this week's installment, I discuss the potential for a
U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria. I was at the United Nations for
Tuesday's debate, and had the chance to talk to a number of key players. On
Wednesday I posted my thoughts about what such a resolution
might accomplish, and on the video blog I answer a number of questions that
have been posed about those efforts. I also talk about Kuwait's
Parliamentary election, with a special appearance by former U.S. Ambassador to
Kuwait Edward "Skip" Gnehm, and about what the horrible violence at a
football game in Port Said might mean for Egypt's political transition.
Enjoy, and as always we welcome your feedback on our ongoing video blog experiment!
Friday, January 27, 2012 - 1:38 PM
Is there any hope for Yemen's political transition? Is Egypt on the way to a new revolution? And has the Arab Spring really, really vindicated neoconservativism? Those are only a few of the topics that I take up today in the second exciting episode of Abu Aardvark's MEC Video Blog. All that, and some great guest appearances, which I won't spoil here. Enjoy!
Thursday, January 26, 2012 - 5:51 PM

This photo of the "sleeping salafi" from the opening session of Egypt's new Parliament burned like wildfire through the Twitter feeds and Facebook pages of my Arab, Egyptian and Middle East watcher friends. The overwhelming tone of the comments was high snark, as liberals fell over themselves snickering at the dozing beards. The image played to every prejudice which has greeted this new wave of salafi Islamists.
There's just one problem. The iconic figure in the lower right corner of the photo wasn't sleeping. He's blind.
Dr. Wageeh el-Sheemy is a university professor and new parliamentarian from the Salafi al-Nour Party. As the We Are All Khaled Said page explained yesterday, el-Sheemy is "the first blind person to become member of the Egyptian parliament thanks to the #Jan25 Revolution. In fact, he is the first ever disabled member of the Egyptian parliament." That's really impressive, and a great story. Congratulations to Dr. El-Sheemy -- and to the Nour Party for putting him forward as a successful candidate.
It should also be a lesson to all. For all the legitimate concerns about where the newly empowered salafi trend will take Egypt -- and there are many -- it is far too easy for people to leap to unwarranted conclusions about them. In the coming days, it will be useful for all Egyptians, and those watching Egypt, to take a breath before rushing to judgement.
We can't help you with that guy in the third row though...
EXPLORE:MIDDLE EAST, MIDDLE EAST EDITORS BLOG, ARAB WORLD, MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, EGYPT, ISLAM, POLITICS, RELIGION
Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 9:52 AM

On January 25, 2011 on the Middle East
Channel, Ashraf Khalil marveled from the streets of Cairo about "sheer size of the turnout, which was larger
than anything I've seen in 13 years of covering Egyptian protests." From
Washington, I pushed back against skeptics who doubted that Tunisia's
revolution would spread to Egypt, as I noted that, "the images and
stories of protests today have been impressive, both in numbers and in energy
and enthusiasm. The Egyptians are self-consciously emulating the Tunisian
protests, seeking to capitalize on the new mood within the Arab world."
Over the following 18 days, the Middle East Channel published a remarkable
range of analysis and commentary about the unfolding Egyptian revolution. It
featured not only outstanding reporting from the ground but also incisive
analysis from the Middle East Studies academic community -- who stepped up in a
big way to help inform public debate at a critical time. Nathan Brown, Shadi
Hamid, Sherif Mansour, Emad Shahin and Daniel Brumberg assessed Washington's response. Vickie Langhor called on the Obama administration to side with Egyptian democracy, as did Tarek Masoud, Ellen Lust and Amaney
Jamal. Geneive Abdo pushed
back against those who saw echoes of Tehran 1979. Helena Cobban talked to the Muslim Brotherhood, Ellis Goldberg checked in with the business community, while MEC co-editor Daniel Levy surveyed the implications for Israeli-Egyptian
relations.
Nathan Brown laid out the Egyptian
constitution's rulebook for change,
while Tamir Moustafa asked whether Egypt needed a new constitution to have a revolution. Michael Hanna laid out the reasons to doubt Mubarak's intentions. Sheila Carapico shrewdly observed how al-Jazeera's relentless focus on Tahrir framed understandings of the revolution. In one of Foreign Policy's most widely read, and
arguably prescient, early contributions, Robert Springborg warned that the
military's role in the transition meant that by February 2 the chance for democracy in Egypt had
already been lost. Ambassador
David Mack warned observers to
curb their enthusiasm. I offered a stream of commentary from Washington. And all of this is only a small part of what appeared on Foreign Policy over those critical
weeks.
This week, the Middle East Channel is proud to offer a wide range of commentary
looking at an Egypt one year after the outbreak of the revolution. Among the
highlights, including a few from last month for perspective:
More is coming over the course of the day, and I'll update the post as those pieces go live.
Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images
Tuesday, January 24, 2012 - 1:17 PM

General Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, head of Egypt's ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, announced the lifting of the much-criticized State of Emergency today on the eve of the anniversary of the revolution. Ending the state of emergency has been one of the primary demands of Egyptian activists and civil society, as well as the international community, for many years. What does it mean? The Middle East Channel asked Nathan Brown, a leading expert on the Egyptian constitution, for his thoughts:
General Tantawi appears to have given the Egyptian Revolution a tremendous birthday gift -- he has ended a state of emergency that has lasted (with only brief interruptions) since the 76-year-old general was four. Except, of course, for the baltagiyya, hooligans or thugs who roam Egyptian streets attacking peaceful citizens and virtuous revolutionaries.
Ending the state of emergency was one of the most important demands of the revolutionary coalition that ousted President Hosni Mubarak last year. I have read only news accounts of his action, but those make it clear that the fine print makes this a bit less of a gift than it initially appears. As far as I can make out:
MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images
Saturday, January 21, 2012 - 9:06 PM
Welcome to the Middle East Channel Editors Vlog, or possibly
MECTV, or the MEC-VLOG or -- if I get my way -- Aardvark TV! We're working
on it. Whatever the name, I'm thrilled to announce the pilot episode of what we
hope will be a weekly video blog hosted by me on the Middle East Channel. Hey,
it worked for Justin Bieber, right?
We recorded the pilot episode this week. It touches on Syria (jump to 1:01),
Yemen (4:15), and the war debate (7:08); talks about some of my favorite
articles on the Channel last week (9:45), including Aili Tripp's overview of the debate on electoral quotas for women and Michael Hanna's fascinating counterfactual on whether the Arab spring would have toppled Saddam; and profiles my book of the week
(10:40). As we sort out the tech issues, we'll insert chapter breaks so you can
link directly to segments. We had some fun with this one, and I hope you all do
too!
Not all the episodes are going to be quite so, um....well you can provide your
own descriptor once you've watched it. Each episode will be different, and most will bring in guests to join the conversation. Most weeks I plan to respond to selected questions which readers pose on
Twitter, in the comment section, or over email. I'll talk about MEC
articles, and when possible get the authors on camera -- or at
least on Skype -- to answer questions about them. We'll feature conversations with
scholars, authors, policy makers, and folks from the Middle East who come
through Washington. We'll feature a book every week, some to recommend and
others not so much. We'll have fun.
A big part of the reason for doing this is the opportunity to interact with
readers, so do tweet questions or suggestions for the show at me (@abuaardvark)
or drop me a line. We're hoping that this will be fun as well as informative. Thanks
for watching, and be kind as we work out the bugs!
Friday, January 20, 2012 - 3:13 PM
It's hard to think of two people with less in common than Katy Perry and Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Yet, as Sheila Carapico notes, some enterprising Internet denizen mashed up Perry's hit song "Hot 'N Cold" with excerpts from the speeches of the long-serving autocrat, who has his own people -- and diplomats everywhere -- pulling their hair out over his many broken promises to step down from office.
"I should know that you're no good for me," Perry sings. "You're yes, and you're no. You're in, and you're out. You're up, then you're down." Yup, that's Yemen for you these days.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012 - 3:30 PM

Yemen seems trapped in an endless political stalemate. More than a year after massive protests erupted challenging the 33 year old regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen seems no closer to achieving a meaningful political transition. The deadlock has persisted despite the outrage over regime violence against civilians, splits at the top of the military, a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the violence and calling for a transfer of power, a Nobel Peace Prize for leading Yemeni protest figure Tawakkol Karman, and the near assassination of Saleh himself. In the absence of a political solution, the humanitarian situation has dramatically worsened and regional conflicts across the country have intensified. Is there any hope for Yemen?
On Wednesday, January 25, from 12:30-2:00 pm, I will be hosting a POMEPS panel discussion at the Elliott School of International Affairs on Yemen's political stalemate, featuring three political scientists with deep experience in Yemen and very different specializations: Stacey Yadav, Sheila Carapico, and Laurent Bonnefoy. When I chose the title "Yemen's Stalemate" for the panel a few months ago, several people commented that this seemed gloomy. I would have loved to have been proven wrong, but here we are. I hope many of you can attend; a video of the event will be posted later. The post which follows is the introductory essay to POMEPS Briefing #8: Yemen's Stalemate, which can be downloaded here.
MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP/Getty Images
Friday, January 13, 2012 - 10:05 AM

Iraqi
authorities arrested
four armed Americans in civilian
clothes in Baghdad who claimed they were there to protect Shiites heading
toward Karbala. The two men and two women were reportedly carrying automatic
weapons and driving a silver BMW with unregistered diplomatic plates. The
Iraqis said that they found this all suspicious, since there had been no prior
coordination and the law forbids such American activities without notifying the
responsible authorities. The U.S. Embassy reportedly stepped in within 15
minutes of the arrest, and the four were released without charge. It isn't
obvious exactly what was going on, but we can all probably guess.
Baghdad governor
Salah Abd al-Razzaq told reporters that
even if the group were U.S. intelligence operatives, their activities had
nothing to do with Iraqi security and were a clear violation of Iraqi
sovereignty. He demanded an explanation from the U.S. Embassy and a promise
that it not be repeated. A diplomatic crisis seems to have been averted, but
the curious episode should be a cautionary tale. Whatever really happened, this
could have easily escalated into a major diplomatic showdown and a legal
nightmare for the Embassy.
Expect a lot of more of these kinds of incidents in the coming days. While
there hasn't been much coverage of the incident in English, it's being heavily
covered in the Arab and Iraqi media. Arresting
and exposing American operatives in Iraq is going to be politically popular and
the
local media will eat it up. A lot of ambitious political forces
might find it useful to be seen on TV arresting an armed American. Armed Americans traveling around Iraq,
whether security contractors or intelligence operatives, are going to be an
endless source of potential crisis. And people wonder why the Pentagon
staunchly opposed maintaining any U.S. military presence in Iraq without a SOFA
which guaranteed immunity from prosecution for American soldiers?
Sumeria News
Wednesday, December 21, 2011 - 1:48 PM

Ali Tarhouni, Libya's former minister of finance and acting prime minister, has had a busy year. He began 2011 as a professor of economics at the University of Washington, only to rush back to his home country, from which he had been exiled for decades, as the revolution gained steam. He was charged with establishing some semblance of order over the Benghazi-based government's finances during the war, and then took the first steps to incorporate the rebel militias into a national army in the capital of Tripoli.
Now out of government, he was in Washington last week to deliver a personal letter of thanks from Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the chairman of the National Transitional Council (NTC), to top U.S. policymakers for standing with Libya's rebels in their war to oust Muammar al-Qaddafi.
"That stand -- that moral courageous stand -- changed dramatically the kind of relationship that the United States can have with this part of the world, with Libya," he told Foreign Policy. "The door is wide open ... to build a more strategic relationship between the two countries."
One aspect of that relationship will certainly be cooperation on developing Libya's extensive energy reserves. Tarhouni noted that Libya's oil production had recently reached 1 million barrels a day - a figure that had even shocked both Libyan officials, he said, who initially hadn't expected to reach 500,000 barrels a day by the end of the year.
"There are no foreign companies there, no kind of consulting ... all this is done by Libyan hands and minds and brains and bravery," he said. "The difference is that now people feel that they own these institutions, and that feeling of ownership is what made this revolution successful."
None of this is to say that it's all smooth sailing for Libya from here. As the country witnessed so painfully under Qaddafi, the massive influx of oil revenue can be used to concentrate power in the hands of a few just as easily as rebuild the country. Tarhouni, however, said that the NTC had learned its lesson from the Qaddafi era -- he pointed to the website for Libya's National Oil Company, which lists all the oil contracts signed and shipments sold, as a step forward for transparency.
"Will it be a perfect story? No," he said. "[But] it will not be the same sad story as before."
The interim government's struggle to establish control over the many militias operating in the country has also caused it to clash with its erstwhile ally, Qatar. Abdel Jalil slammed the oil-rich emirate last month for undertaking actions in Libya "that we as the NTC don't know about" -- a criticism that Tarhouni expanded on.
"I think what they have done is basically support the Muslim Brotherhood, and I think that's an infringement on the sovereignty of the country," he said. "They have brought armaments, and they have given them to people that we don't know -- I think paid money to just about everybody. They intervened in committees that have control over security issues."
Qatar admitted that hundreds of its soldiers were on the ground during the Libya war to help the rebels topple Qaddafi, but has denied charges that it is interfering in Libyan politics.
So, what's next for Tarhouni? He said he will found a new political party, which he describes as a movement that can bring ordinary Libyans into the political process. Without such an option, he fears, the political space could be seized by Islamist movements.
"There's a political vacuum in the country," he said. "The only organized group is the Muslim Brotherhood. They're small, but they're well-organized and financed."
Sounds like it's going to be another busy year.
MARCO LONGARI/AFP/Getty Images
Thursday, December 8, 2011 - 11:16 AM

Most of the reporting on Syria's Bashar al-Assad's interview with ABC's Barbara Walters has focused on the lies. And it's easy work: The president, after all, claimed that he wasn't responsible for his security forces' actions, and that nobody in his government had ordered a crackdown on protesters. For the commentariat, that's a softball lobbed over the middle of the plate.
But just because Assad isn't telling the truth doesn't mean he didn't provide insights into his regime. In fact, the interview told viewers quite a bit about how he views Syria's political dynamics, and his strategy for overcoming the current unrest. Here's what we learned:
Assad is no man of the people: In the early 1980s, President Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father, faced a sustained uprising from Islamist movements inside Syria. It was the most serious threat that his regime would face, and he responded with a brutality that far exceeded the current crackdown. But Hafez didn't only reach for the stick -- he bolstered a personal connection with the Syrian people, often at personal risk to himself. Here's what the New York Times had to say, on March 24, 1982:
A week ago, after a speech marking the rise to power of the Baath Party, President Assad stunned onlookers by plunging into the crowd, then walking with the demonstrators several miles through the center of Damascus, often letting them carry him on their shoulders. The spectacle was unprecedented. Normally, the President remains behind a wall of security forces and travels in fast-moving convoys.
Western diplomats on the scene are convinced he acted on impulse and that the security forces had no advance warning. He took a stunning security risk.
What's Assad's response to the most serious threat to his regime? He gave an interview to the London Sunday Times's Hala Jaber in late November, and now he's given an interview to Walters. Apart from an interview with Syrian television in August, he has yet to address his own people.
Assad may belittle the importance of international good will -- his mantra in the Walters interview was that sabotage from the West and Arab states couldn't overcome the support that he maintained among his own people. His choice of interviewers says differently.
Assad takes Syrian institutions seriously: Or at least, he pretends to. One of the most revealing parts of the interview is Bashar's account of how he came to rule Syria: It wasn't due to his father, who ruled the country with an iron grip for 30 years -- Hafez never trained him, he said, or wanted his son to succeed him. "I became president because of the public support," he claimed.
It's that same reliance on his country's byzantine institutions that caused Assad to deny any connection to his own security forces' crackdown. "They are not my forces, they are military forces belonging to the government," he said. Never mind that his brother is one of his most important military commanders, and that the border with Lebanon is marked with a sign reading "Assad's Syria."
Syria's institutions present Assad with a useful illusion. After all, institutions can be reformed, but a country that is little more than a personal fiefdom needs a revolution.
Barbara Walters: not awful! Everyone who made snarky comments about Walters' lack of qualifications to conduct this interview should be eating crow (and that includes me). If she found the Syrian president "intelligent" and "charming" in 2008, she seems to have since been disabused of the notion. Walters pressed him on all the hot-button issues: the government crackdown, his growing isolation, and the effect of sanctions on Syria's economy. Personally, I would have also read Assad some of the quotes from his January interview with the Wall Street Journal's Jay Solomon -- when the president was still gloating that his country had remained stable amidst the regional turmoil -- but that's a minor point.
Overall, it's hard to see what Assad gained from the interview. He seemed out of touch, at times incoherent, and delusional about the support that he still enjoys in Syria. If the world learned anything from this interview, it was that they have seen enough of Assad.
Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images
Monday, November 28, 2011 - 6:50 PM

The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers List -- or as I like to call it, the "Blake Hounshell
makes 100 Friends and Loses a Few Thousand Who Secretly Think They Should Have
Been On It List" -- hit the
stands today. As you'd expect, given this year's astonishing
events, the Middle East features prominently. My contribution was an
article, The Big
Think Behind the Arab Spring, which reviewed of
some of the key ideas, thinkers, and trends which contributed to the Arab
uprisings. I tried to focus on what Arab intellectuals and writers have said about their own revolutions, not on what we in the West have written about them. I can't blame Blake for that one.
On the list itself, you'll find profiles of:
Among those on the list who are not as obviously connected to the Middle East, I would especially point to Samantha Power, whose ideas about the urgency of preventing genocide and push for global norms against impunity have emerged as one of the defining principles of the new Arab order, and Anne-Marie Slaughter, who pursued the same ideas at the State Department and then emerged as a forceful public advocate. I would also include my old Williamstown friend Ethan Zuckerman, for his brilliant and innovative work pushing the limits of the social uses of the internet, including helping to create the Global Voices Online collective which included so many key figures in Arab social media.
There are obviously so many more who could have been selected. FP couldn't cover every country or every brilliant mind. If you're one of them, or you really think there's someone who should -- or should not -- have been included, let me repeat: blame @blakehounshell.
Elbaradei for Presidency Facebook page, https://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=123551066565#!/group.php?gid=123551066565&v=photos
Wednesday, November 23, 2011 - 6:08 PM

Rarely has a human rights report been accompanied by as much hoopla as the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry's (BICI) investigation. The report, which examines the government's crackdown during domestic unrest in February and March, was published on Nov. 23. Its release was accompanied by a televised speech by the BICI's head, Cherif Bassiouni, accusing King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa's security forces of operating with a sense of impunity, and using torture and excessive force to quell the protests.
The 501-page tome (warning: large .pdf file ahead) is a tough read. It neglects to name the officials responsible for human rights violations, and often falls back on a "he said-she said" account of events that leaves readers none the wiser about what took place. But there are a few sections of the report that shed new light on the abortive revolution that occurred on the island kingdom in February and March.
The first protester's death: The first casualty in Bahrain's crackdown occurred on Feb. 14, when police killed Ali Abdulhadi Almeshaima in the village of Daih. As the report makes clear, Almeshaima's death galvanized the protest movement, as demonstrators took to the street for his funeral and to express outrage over the killing. The government's story is that Almeshaima was participating in a demonstration and was killed after the protesters attacked a nearby police unit, while his family claims that he was shot by a police unit in cold blood, "for no apparent reason."
On page 224, the commission comes down on the side of Almeshaima's family:
"The death of Mr Almeshaima can be attributed to the use of excessive force by police officers. At the time of the shooting, there were no reports of any disturbances in the Daih area. Furthermore, the fact that Mr Almeshaima was shot in the back at close range indicates that there was no justification for the use of lethal force."
The death toll: The casualties from Bahrain's uprising is a matter of some dispute -- the Bahrain Center for Human Rights has listed 46 people that it says were killed by excessive force from the country's security forces. The BICI, however, finds that 35 people will killed during the revolt.
On page 214, it breaks down its death toll: 13 civilians were reportedly killed by security forces, five people died from torture, eight civilians died from unattributed causes, four expatriate workers were killed by both civilians and security forces, and five policy and army officers died during the unrest.
Fake blood: One of the narratives pushed by pro-government supporters is that protesters smeared fake blood over themselves to exaggerate, for media consumption, the brutality of the security forces' crackdown. Among the government's charges against 20 imprisoned medical workers, which it accuses of colluding with the protesters, is that they provided demonstrators with donor blood for just this purpose, and also gave atropine to some individuals to imitate nerve gas injuries -- again for media consumption.
The BICI report, on pages 74 and 75, appears to confirm the rumors that protesters used fake blood in at least one Feb. 18 protest:
"The protesters approached the BDF barricade at approximately 17:00 and demanded access to the roundabout. According to subsequent BDF investigations, the protesters began to verbally abuse the military personnel deployed in the area and to shout anti-government slogans. Reports also indicated that certain individuals among the demonstrators smeared their bodies with red liquid to feign injuries that could be recorded and subsequently aired on the internet and on satellite news channels."
Torture: The most explosive segment of the report relates to the torture and death of protesters at the hands of Bahrain's security forces. Strangely, in the case of two of the five protesters who died in police custody from torture, officers tried to cover up their crimes by listing the cause of death as related to sickle cell anemia.
On pages 238 and 239, the report recounts a witness's statement about the events that led to the death of Zakariya Rashid Hassan al-Asheri on April 9:
"The witness stated that all the detainees in the same cell were blindfolded and handcuffed, and forced to lie on their stomachs. On one of the mornings, the deceased began to experience hallucinations or confusion, whereby he began banging on the door shouting his name. The prison guards shouted at him to be quiet and when he did not comply, they entered his cell. The witness heard the deceased being beaten and he heard him scream after each beating. The witness then heard a shuffling noise after which the deceased‘s shouts became muffled. The witness then heard a Pakistani say in Urdu, 'He is dead.'"
Alex Wong/Getty Images
Tuesday, November 22, 2011 - 1:38 AM

Arab views of the United States improved over the past year, but still have a long way to go according to the 2011 edition of the annual survey of six Arab countries conducted by Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland this October. And Arab publics remain broadly supportive of uprisings around the region, and guardedly optimistic about the future.
The Obama administration's efforts to grapple with the Arab spring seem to have improved Arab views of the United States to some extent, but the survey shows the steep obstacles to such engagement. America's image rebounded from 10% favorable in 2010 to 26% favorable, largely among those who see that it has played a positive role in responding to the Arab uprisings. That compares to 12% favorable in 2006 and 15% in 2008. The jump to 26% is a significant increase, but it's obviously still a very low number.
52% now say they are disappointed in the Obama administration, a majority but down from 65% last year. And 34% now have positive views of Obama himself, a 19 point gain from 2010. Arab disappointment in the administration is still mostly driven by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, according to the survey. Only 5% named a failure to promote democracy as the main cause for their disappointment (though that's up from 1% the previous year), while 23% named its efforts on democracy and human rights as a positive.
The poll found that 55% of respondents said that they were more optimistic about the future of the Arab world now, and only 16% said they were more pessimistic. The survey suggests strong and wide support for popular uprisings across the region: 86% say they support the rebels against the government in Syria and 89% say the same about Yemen. But only 64% said they supported the Bahraini opposition, still a majority but a 20 point gap which likely attests to the effectiveness of Bahraini and Saudi propaganda and sectarian narratives. Only 35% now say that the intervention in Libya was the right thing to do -- quite a decline from the enthusiasm in the spring. And a plurality of Egyptians (43%) thought that the military leadership is working to slow or reverse the gains of the revolution - a telling sign of the growing disenchantment which exploded on the streets this weekend.
Meanwhile, Turkey remains broadly popular, and its Prime Minister Recep Erdogan the single most popular statesman in the survey for the second year running. The survey found little Iranian appeal as a political model, but it did reveal a decline in Arab enthusiasm for containing Iran as 64% now say that Iran has a right to its nuclear program, up from 53% last year.
As with all survey research in the Arab world, these numbers should be approached with caution. But it's still a useful snapshot of mass attitudes at a time when public opinion matters ever more intensely in Arab politics.
Friday, November 18, 2011 - 12:47 PM

The world's attention today is focused on protests in Egypt, where hundreds of thousands took to the streets to demand an end to military rule, and in Syria, where protests in Hama, Homs, Idlib, and the Damascus suburbs appear to have resulted in dozens of deaths. But below the radar, thousands also demonstrated in Bahrain -- in the largest protests the island kingdom has experienced in weeks.
Mass protests in Bahrain were largely squelched in March, following the deployment of Saudi and Emirati troops to the country, so today's protest represents a surprising resurgence of the opposition movement. Some of the protesters carried tents during the march -- a sign that they intended to set up a permanent camp, recapturing the energy of the Pearl Square sit-in.
The revitalization of Bahrain's protest movement could not come at a worse time for the ruling monarchy, which is trying to get back in the international community's good graces after suppressing demonstrations earlier this year. Bahrain urgently wants the United States to push through a $53 million arms package -- last month, its foreign minister told FP's Josh Rogin that any delay in the deal would send the wrong signal to regional adversaries, such as Iran.
The future of the U.S. arms sale is thought to hinge on a human rights report, which is due to be released on Nov. 23. Congress and the State Department have promised to review the report's findings on allegations of torture and repression against the Bahrain government -- but will be hard-pressed to ignore the situation on the ground if the stage seems to be set for another crackdown.
If Bahrain's monarchy ignores the protests, they will likely gain momentum. If it cracks down, it risks scuttling the arms deal and fracturing its alliance with the United States. What's a king to do these days?
Mandel Ngan - Pool/Getty Images
Wednesday, November 16, 2011 - 12:06 AM

Last December, Moncef Marzouki was an exile in Paris railing against President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, whose regime appeared firmly ensconced in Tunis.
What a different a year makes. Marzouki has now reportedly been tapped as the country's next president, where he will oversee the writing of a new constitution -- and it's Ben Ali who's in exile. The reports are still sourced to anonymous officials in Marzouki's party, so nothing is official just yet. However, if they prove true, it will represent an encouraging sign for Tunisia's nascent democracy.
Marzouki, a physician by training, has seemingly studied all his life to guide Tunisia's transition to democracy: In his youth, as Steve Coll reported for The New Yorker, he traveled to India to study the non-violent methods of Mahatma Gandhi, and subsequently visited South Africa to study its transition from apartheid rule. He was forced into exile after publicly objecting to Ben Ali's show trials targeting Islamist movements in the early 1990s.
Marzouki has also earned a reputation as one of the standard-bearers for secularism in post-Ben Ali Tunisia. His Congress for the Republic party seized 29 seats in the country's Oct. 23 election, becoming the second largest movement on the political scene, by appealing to left-wing, urban voters. At the same time, he has played down fears of the Islamist al-Nahda party, which won a whopping 89 seats in the election, saying that it "is not a threat for democracy."
In an Oct. 19 article for The Guardian , Marzouki laid out his agenda for his country's political future. "Tunisians demand the establishment of a system that will protect future generations from the return of tyranny: a free press, an independent judiciary, and the restoration of balanced development between the regions," he wrote. "This entails fighting the ill that has eaten into the fabric of society - high unemployment, particularly among educated youth."
If he is selected as president and pursues that agenda, it's a fair bet that Tunisians won't regret the fact that he changed places with Ben Ali.
BECHIR TAIEB/AFP/Getty Images
Monday, November 14, 2011 - 8:11 PM
Lebanese politicians have been hunkering down ever since protests broke out in Syria eight months ago, fearful that the instability in their neighbor could spill across the border. And while Beirut has avoided large scale unrest so far, one of the most spectacular outbursts occurred on Monday - not on the streets, but on the set of a Lebanese television station.
It all started when former parliamentarian Moustafa Alloush faced off against Fayez Shukur, the head of the Baath Party in Lebanon, on a live talk show. Alloush's political patron, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, has taken to Twitter in recent days to denounce the Syrian government's "massacres," while Shukur leads the Lebanese wing of Syria's (functionally) one-party regime.
The scene was set for a conflagration - and one soon erupted. Alloush denounced Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a "tyrant," "criminal," and "liar," Shukur called Alloush a liar, and Alloush responded by telling Shukur to "eat shit." It deteriorated from there.
You can watch the fracas above. I'll only say that talk show host Walid Abboud first attempts to defuse the situation by appealing to the "docteurs," but by the time Shukur has picked up a chair, is reduced to yelling at the two "shabab" -- or "guys."
Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who has tried to remain neutral regarding the violence wracking Syria, tried to play down the incident over Twitter. "Unfortunately, it happens on #TV in many Democracies," he wrote. "[B]ut, not my style."

The Middle East Channel offers unique analysis and insights on this diverse and vital region of more than 400 million.
Read More